Seven Generations Energy Ltd. class A common shares T.VII

Nov 7 numbers

[regardless]

Retired exec ... you are a very great source with numbers and calculations
what are your thoughts on vii beating street estimates with the rally in Nat gas prices we have seen?
its starting to get cold here in Canada man.. I live in the far north and I can tell you my furnace runs steady allready.

personally I believe seven g has a stellar guardedly report with great free cash flow

[regardless]

Retired exec it would be really cool to see your write up on the comparison between vii and tou as you mentioned you would give your opinion on why seven gems will lead that pack in share price appreciation this winter 

[topdown99]

Hi retired guy , its been pretty quiet here but I expect that will start changing soon . Whats the latest price for condy ?  VII is at a very interesting point if you watch the charts , several tests of the 200 day average . If it breaks above that resistance , there should be a good rally in the price . Stay tuned !!!

[regardless]

Topdown99  I agree with that but it won't be because of the 200 day ma it will be because they are getting great money for their gas especially this past quarter if they show another solid free cash flow quarter and actually pay down some more debt this stock should move up to the summer time high of 4.75$  if the quarter is great which I believe it will be and Nat gas starts to

[retiredengexec]

With condy at 38 US, Natgas at 3.00 cdn and ngls at 12 per bbl, their netback is 14.30 per boe. Assuming production of 175,000 boe per day they have funds flow of 227 million. With 200 million of capex they will have free cash flow of 27 million. Not bad.

[regardless]

If we get to 3$ gas where do you peg us share price wise retiredengexec 

[retiredengexec]

5 ish. The cindy price is more important. 3 buck us gas is very likely

[regardless]

Retired energyexec im not so sure Cindy will be as important as seven g has begun transitioning to their gassier sections of land to take advantage of what many are predicting to be a huge year or two for Nat gas . if seven g had 50$ Condy  and 3.50$ gas plus... this thing could be at Tourmaline's price in not time i was really looking forward to your comparison of vii and tourmaline

[retiredengexec]

I'll get to the comparison regardless. Tou is a bit complicated as they segment their results. BTW it takes 6 mcf to make one boe so 3.50 gas is equivalent to 21 dollar condensate. That said you usually have more boes from a gas well due to lower gas permeability. So a nest three well make 3000 boes whereas a nest 2 would make around 2000 boes. Both values are ip30 numbers.

[regardless]

i beleive you posted this chart from macdaniels a few weeks backin regards to where we could see share price, ive highlited the two most likely scenarios but definately believe scenario 4 is the front runner wich gives vii a 13$ price...still well under that of tourmaline and thats with 2.50$ gas and not 3$ gass wich i expect and higher...what are your thoughts here retiredengexec???? The next

[retiredengexec]

So long as they have free cash flow the price will firm. Upon further reflection the sp could hit the 6s if gas firms which is very likely. I dont think oil goes to the 50s until we have a vaccine. That said oil could rocket back above 50 if us production lags due to well counts. BTW condy at 48 bucks is equivalent to 8 dollar gas. That's the main reason vii should be worth more than tou. As I

[regardless]

Retiredengexec ... no what about a scenario where a vaccine is ready this winter followed by a huge decline in production in the USA since banks are no longer lending shale money there ...... perfect storm? could see condy and gas producers at 2 year highs ....also of trump is voted out and Biden shuts down the energy sector like our prime minister has ....that could be a third whammy that sends

[retiredengexec]

This scenario is certainly possible. Wouldn't it be nice to have some good fortune. When things turn around vii should lead the pack. I say this because of their newfound operational excellence.and of course the great holdings.

[regardless]

Nat gas just opened at 2.90$ look out because if this starts running with the cold weather seven gems will be 5$ in no time at all this is undervalued based on new management objectives and a nice cold winter will really show its face in this stock my target is 9$ by end of january

[retiredengexec]

I really hope you are right!!!!

[regardless]

Retired engexec wjere do you see stock price if scenario 5 holds 40$ wti 12$ ngls and 2.50$ gas you have that pegged at 8.97$ per share  let's say gas is at 3.50$ or even 4$ and everything else you stated stayed the same .... where do you put share price then ? 

[QekaaQ]

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[retiredengexec]

Condy was $42.30 US on Thursday. So about 53 cdn.