RE:RE:RE:WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?Yes, that is what I mean. Commingled vertical has come into VLE's vocabulary recently. Gotta remember, theres 500m+ of Kesan that wasnt drilled below dev 1's TD. So far, the lowest zones have shown very manageable amounts of water, and with dev 1, dry gas. That should reasonably indicate any gas zones below are also dry gas, and maybe even more productive(but since they never fracked Inanli at its deepest level, we cant even resonably speculate). But, the first Inanli test is an equivalent layer as the dev test, but more productive(3x more? per frac), at a deeper basin depth. So it seems reasonable that they have to drill a well closer yet to the middle, but all the way through the Kesan. 5,500m TVD?
I believe, Hz drilled at these over 3,500m depths and pressures, the laterals become shorter. Would be nice if someone had some educational info on deep horizontals. But if you can only do a 1,000 meter lateral... or a 1,600 meter vertical column as deep as you need and all can be commingled, the economics math will likely go vertical/deviated from a big well pad. 12-20+ wells. Fracking operations should be a similar cost, unless we are talking a 2 mile lateral
So as an example, the pinedale/Johan fields in Wyoming have been developed with this method, and are tight over pressured sandstone. The zones/fracs are 3,000m to 4,300m, and average about 25 fracs. With a cost of only 3 million to drill and complete a well, and well spacing being 10-20 acres, I believe the fracs arent big, but obviously cheap either way. The decline rates are surprisingly low for tight gas and the IPs are around 5.0-9.0 mmcf/d. So in my mind, if they end up doing quite a few fracs at dev, the prevailing theory there is vertical development, unless of course many tests are just plain bad. But that is valuable(to not spend more money on) data too.
Shallower areas toward the rim of the BCGA may still be very worthy of Hz testing. As with those you can do certain things to mitigate the "liquids" issues. Shouldnt be an issue horizontally as long as enough hydrocarbons comenof of the ground
Goaweigh wrote: Are you talking about 10 to 25 fracks in a vertical well and if so shouldn't we continue fracking/testing Dev to get an idea of the best zones from the bottom up to test that 1,000M column ?
Thanks Sj40mf wrote: kcac1 wrote: .
We know that in the Val BCGA budget was a $9.5mm charge for their 31.5% share of Dev drilling and testing and tie in. So a vertical appraisal well this deep must cost ballpark around $30mm total for all parties And that Val only owns rights of 31.5% of West Trace deep which works out to be slightly more than 30k acres.And if they decide to drill that HZ well they will have to drill another Vertical well first in West Thrace. There are two committement wells needed for West Thrace that must be completed by the end of June, they only have to be shallow and they may or may not be in the license/lease that would work in conjuction with Dev.
So, if they drill another deep well in Dev then a HZ the rough cost going by the cost of Dev should be around $65mm total with 31.5% being charged to Val..
So, the cost of one HZ or Directional appraisal well at Ina would like be in the ballpark of $35mm at 50% to Val but if successful it would mean they have proven up the much larger (to Val) deep section of Barnarli which is more than double in size to what they control in West Thrace.
While I dont believe the next round of wells will include a Hz, I think your price for it is high. A Hz well more than likely will have little science done to it like these first 3 wells. Unless they take a verticle and cement it back and mill out a window in the casing to go Hz. But that could be just as expensive as drilling a new vertical portion. But anyways, low amount of science, and the frack crew and equipment will do it all at once rather than this long drawn out fracking process now, with having idle equipment on the pad during the long term tests. It will be a production test, not a geology test.
Similar idea for some of the verticals. They certainly have more science wells to drill across the entire basin, but with finding a productive area at Dev1, they can pace themselves with Banarli to the wells needed to maintain the exploration licenses. And the license with Dev1 could be entirely converted to a production license, if they put the well on production after testing is finished. Which I suspect will be a lengthy amount of time. I think they will frack any and all porous layers, since this first test isnt a candidate for going Hz due to depth, so they wanna find all that they can within the 1,000m column. Because as long as a zone plays well with the others, you dont need a very high rate to pay off a single frac(think of how inexpensive the shallow well fracking campaign was and the payout rates, similar idea, but instead they would do 10-25 in a well with a handful of 1+ mmcf/d zones).