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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum WestFire Energy Ltd T.WFE

TSX:WFE - Post Discussion

WestFire Energy Ltd > Bought in
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Post by JohnJBond on Aug 14, 2012 11:46am

Bought in

Yesterday I decdied to sell some more established holdings, and use the funds to by WFT between 3.95 and 4.

 

I think its an excellent entry point.   In my view, the share price has fallen as a result of a few people who wanted something else, dumping in protest.    Their loss is my gain.    I suspect they are looking at trees, and failing to notice the forest.

 

In answer to the question Why?    In my view, this merger is part of a larger plan.    Its worth keeping in mind that the Chinese offer for Nexen took about a year to finalize, and consisted of several steps, ending in the cash offer.

 

I strongly suspect this merger is part of a similar larger plan...................afterall, why would WFE's mgmt, go for such an apparently inferior offer, when they could have accepted $7-8 in cash elsewhere.    

 

The Chinese would much rather buy one larger company at a premium, than try for two smaller companies at a discount.    The Chinese can only buy so many Canadian Companies, before thier rich offers start meeting political oposition.   

 

In my view, there is probably a larger deal in the works...................ie merge WFE with another undervalued company.............result in double the production, and 6 - 12 months later, recieve an offer of 70,000-100,000 per flowing barrel from an eager Chinese buyer.     If I were managing WFE, and had been unable to get $12 per share in the last few months, but I was given a means to getting a $12 offer in 2 or 3 quarters, I`d agree to a merger like this - no doubt about it.     

 

I`d know it would cause some short term share price issues, but I`d also know the outcome would more than make up for it.

 

In strange situations like this, its important to see the forest, rather than focus on the trees.

Comment by heraclitus on Aug 14, 2012 1:14pm
Bond, not sure about your Chinese forest but there are very good trees in the mix.  Economies tend to go with scale.  Efficiencies tend to go with scale.  Power is related to size. In O&G companies bigger is better and shareholder reward is much better.  If the fit is good, as claimed, this should be a great deal whether or not a Chinese buyer comes out of the bushes.   ...more  
Comment by JohnJBond on Aug 14, 2012 1:58pm
Without a bigger picture plan, this deal stinks as a straight merger.    Great for GO, and a huge anchor for WFE.   The market is responding to this deal on the merits of the merger alone - and as you can see, thats roughly a 20% reduction in WFE`s value.   I don`t buy the argument that WFE mgmt endorses this deal on the merits of the merger alone.    In my view ...more  
Comment by testy1 on Aug 14, 2012 2:41pm
Maybe the merged company is only worth around 4 dollars a share.  That's "IF" the GO shareholders will vote in favour.  Natural gas prices could easily strengthen and oil prices weaken.   Lots of uncertainty so I wouldn't be interested in WFE shares at this time.        
Comment by heraclitus on Aug 14, 2012 4:15pm
Bond, international evil-doers must be afoot. Why is there no arbitrage?  Most seem to think that WFE is better than GO yet GO is trading at a highly arbitrageable level.  Today I sold some GO and bought some WFE and, if the deal goes through, made dough. If it does not I have, the consensus seems, a preferable value stock.    Most would admit that O&G market values ...more  
Comment by heraclitus on Aug 14, 2012 4:21pm
Bond, villians must be responsible for the nearly straight line down (ten cents) in the last half hour of trading.  Meanwhile bouyant GO bobs along with a .02 cent gain! Yes, evil is afoot! 
Comment by value1 on Aug 14, 2012 4:39pm
Either the manager is blowing it out and has a limit because he doesn't like the deal and is saying f you or he is getting redemptions and selling it any price. This guy at UBS is a complete idiot.  Selling WFE at 3.94 is equilvalent to selling GO at 1.64.  Like you said you win two ways.  Both on the arb opp and the fact if the deal does not go thru WFE will pop back to $5 ...more  
Comment by roge1 on Aug 14, 2012 9:35pm
dirty  wh oores drive it down 10 cents in quick fashion - they should be shot
Comment by JohnJBond on Aug 15, 2012 3:42am
I don't know why WFE is holding at $4.   Given that Sprott seems to control 35% of WFE's votes (about half of which are only voting under certain circumstances), then Sprott has blocking power - ie can prevent any hostil bid from achieving 66%.      Knowing this, why would anyone else bother to make an alternative offer...............when Sprott can just block it.   ...more  
Comment by bonjovi501 on Aug 15, 2012 1:03pm
We continue to fall along with GO and you would think it would go up. What is going on here?? Manipulation???
Comment by bonjovi501 on Aug 15, 2012 1:03pm
We continue to fall along with GO and you would think it would go up. What is going on here?? Manipulation???
Comment by ch4sauce on Aug 15, 2012 1:11pm
People are blowing out the stock becuase it is a terrible deal for shareholders.  WFE holders were expecting a big sale price over $5 but Sprott bent them over the barrel because they own a big chunk of the stock.  Retail guys get hurt on this deal but Sprott will do okay becasue GO got these assets for a song. Fund managers will start buying again when WFE hits $3.50.
Comment by Sir_Holler on Aug 15, 2012 1:14pm
Natural gas is falling, and that is what WFE was married to with GO.  
Comment by heraclitus on Aug 15, 2012 1:28pm
Post transaction original WFE shareholders will hold about 2/3 of the stock and GO 1/3 (if my rough math is correct). So it not a takeover by GO, that is just how it is structured.   WFE has tripled revenues over last year.  Last quarter it increased its production by 30%.  On top of that it has taken over a company that more than doubles it gross production and greatly ...more  
Comment by bankerboy28 on Aug 15, 2012 1:57pm
unfortunatley WFE shareholders are stuck the tie into what happens with GO shares for now...the last few days have seen the price of WFE drop with institutions and retail investors getting out because a takeover did not happen or they do not like the proposed merger..I am holding on for the roller coaster ride...merge will likely happen as majority of dissenters are already gone and have sold ...more  
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