Uranium Energy Corp UEC

💥Flash!⚡️ New insights into Kazatomprom's 23 August release

[mangoe]

John Quakes

@quakes99 -

Flash! New insights into Kazatomprom's 23 August release of #Kazakhstan's 2025 #Uranium Production Guidance have been published by Kazakh media outlet inbusiness. Revised production figures for blocks 6 & 7 of the Russian Budenovskoye JV, were contained in a summary of recent public hearings regarding the environmental impact of U mining.

New Budenovskoye 6 & 7 production targets (with 100% going to Russia's Rosatom under a 3-year contract from 2024-2026) are 1,300tU in 2025 (was 4,500tU); 3,750tU in 2026 (was 6,000tU) with full production of 6,000tU not achieved until 2027.

According to the summary document, that's a -3,200tU (-8.32M lbs) shortfall vs previous 2025 guidance and a -2,250tU (-5.85M lbs) drop in 2026.

It's also interesting to note that the planned production at Budenovskoye 6 & 7 for 2024 was 2,500tU, which has not materialized due to construction & development delays and difficulties securing the required acid.

Earlier this month Kazatomprom published their revised 2024 Production Guidance with a mid-point of 23,000tU, a -2,250tU drop from their original 2024 guidance of 25,250tU provided in 2023. Given that Budenovskoye 6 & 7 are the main source of production expansion, that -2,250tU drop in 2024 guidance aligns well with the planned 2,500tU of 2024 production that did not fully materialize at Budenovskoye 6 & 7. The 250tU difference may be the quantity that B6 & 7 are expected to produce this year.

This data seems to further confirm that ALL guided increases in Uranium production in Kazakhstan in 2024 thru 2026 are going directly to Russia in their entirety!

I would also expect Rosatom to renegotiate their 3-year contract for Budenovskoye 6 & 7 production to add an additional year to the end of 2027, given the 1-year delay in bringing those deposits online, giving Russia a monopoly on increased Kazakh production until 2028!

The hearing summary also reveals production expectations for the KATCO JV with French Orano, with their production at Yuzhny in 2025 at 321tU, in 2026 it will drop to 109tU, and in 2027 it will completely drop to zero. Tortkuduk production will gradually increase from 2103tU in 2023 to 3,279tU in 2025, then to 3,892tU in 2026, after which it will stabilize at 4,000tU in 2027-2034.

Further, the Appak JV with Japan was expected to see its production level increase from 832tU to 1000tU from 2023 to 2035, but has been scaled back to a maximum of 800tU in 2024 to achieve a 6-year life of mine extension to 2041.

Kazatomprom's previous 2025 Uranium Production Guidance for all of Kazakhstan's mining operations was set at 31,000tU (80.6M lbs) but given their revised 2024 guidance now sits at 23,000tU (59.8M lbs) it would take nothing short of a miracle to ramp up production by 20.8 Million lbs in 2025 to reach that 100% permitted 80.6M lbs production target.

It's going to be very interesting to see what Kazatomprom comes up with for their new 2025 guidance.

https://inbusiness.kz/ru/news/rosatom-aktivno-osvaivaet-kuplennoe-megamestorozhdenie-urana

[CLOUDER]

yes i expected the KAZ would be short,  but this is real short. But they will just misrepresent  what the reality is suppose to try to keep the price genie in the bottle.  there has got to be some buyers squrmin in there seats,   there has to be.