Fair share price currently 0.55 CAD. For obvious (personal) reasons (a complete misjudgment of the GBU court case), I have refrained from writing here. In 2021/2022, I wrote extensively here and engaged in a veritable war of words with the "figure" Drjimjones at Stockhouse. I consistently maintained that it was unlikely the criminal court would convict Spanish "officials" in the Aznalcllar tender process—not with prison sentences and/or fines.
Drjimjones's "disciples" (there's no other way to describe them) simply refused to grasp that a conviction is practically impossible if the public prosecutor pleads "not guilty" in court. In no state governed by the rule of law is it possible for a foreign outfit (EMO) to demand prison sentences for (state) officials without justification. It can also be assumed that the administrative court will conclude that Emerita Resources will not automatically be awarded Aznalcllar.
Drjimjones's "disciples" (there's no other way to describe them) simply refused to understand that a conviction is virtually impossible if the public prosecutor pleads "not guilty" in court. The question now is, what is the fair value of Emerita Resources (as of today)? Only the IBW project has real value. Currently, there is only a Mining Resource Efficiency Report (MRE) for it. The Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) stage is being skipped in the further development of the process. A Final Feasibility Study (PFS) should be submitted in 2026. IBW is actually far too small as a polymetallic project. This would only have made sense if Emerita had also acquired Aznalcllar – primarily for synergy effects in the processing plant.
A clue as to where things might be headed can be gleaned from Emerita's statement from last Friday:
The IBW project has the potential to produce up to one million ounces of gold, which would make it one of the leading gold mines in Europe. The area also has significant deposits of copper, silver, lead, and zinc, as well as other minerals.
[urlFair share price currently 0.55 CAD.]https://www.gentedigital.es/sevilla/noticia/4213747/emerita-resources-respeta-la-sentencia-que-ratifica-la-adjudicacion-de-la-mina-de-aznalcollar/[/url]
I expect the PFS to position Emerita as a gold company with silver as a co-product (possibly copper, but probably not). If we now consider the substantial gold- and silver-bearing portion of IBW's holdings, that's La Romanero. It contains 856 oz of gold and 42.8 oz of silver in the ground (mineral + inert + inert). This translates to just under 1.5 oz of AuEQ, or roughly 2 g/t AuEq. This is a starting point. High prices for acquiring a mid-tier company are not to be expected. It's far too small.
So what does this mean for a fair price? IBW only has a Mining Resource Establishment (MRE), no Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA), and certainly no Preliminary Financial Statement (PFS) with reserves. The gross in-situ value is around USD 6 billion. Let's generously assume an EV of $100/oz (g/t) – a recovery of 80%, or a net AuEq of 1.2 oz. This would result in a fair market capitalization of USD 120 million, or CAD 166 million. Dividing by 290 million shares yields a (currently) fair price of CAD 0.55.
urai58
P.S. You can also calculate it differently. Polymetallic. However, this doesn't yield any more. The processing costs for polymetallic deposits are higher. You can also compare it with Euro Sun Mining and its current market cap. The net result would be roughly the same.