Just as an acknowledgement. As I have said in the past the most recent PCA arbitration case for an expropriated project is the TMI and Bolivia, of which I unfortunately (like Stans) well aware.
The TMI case took approximately 3 years to reach the respondent and claimant’s post hearing briefs, which then triggered the panel award analysis. The actual award decision was issued 22 months later and that was just to arrive at sunk costs only (with %).
There has now been a 9 month wait (and waiting) since the issue of the TMI award, and still no agreement as to who will do/pay what. Yes, I agree that the Stans award could be issued tomorrow. However, it could be much longer, and the SP will remain in limbo till then (I have not read any reasons why Russia should be concerned about Stans and its lithium project pushing forward, and Stans is in no financial position to do so).
Also, remember that the TMI award ‘standoff’ is over only $28 mill and Bolivia has a record of having made payments (most reduced) on some of these awards given previously . Krygyz has no such record and won’t apparently pay even approx. a Stans ¼ mill award from a couple of years ago. Neither has Stans/funders gone after them to avoid a precedent.
Again, the judgement could be tomorrow and Krygyz could pay in full a matter of months. However, The anecdotal evidence unfortunately does not suggest that both these factors will fall in lock step for Stans over the near term.
GLTA long term holders -
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