Logan Energy Corp V.LGN

Alternate Symbol(s): LOECF

Energy Oil & Gas E&P

Logan Energy Corp. is a Canadian energy company. The Company is engaged in exploration, development and production of crude oil and natural gas properties, focused in the Simonette and Pouce Coupe areas of northwest Alberta and in the Flatrock area of northeastern British Columbia, and also has established a position within the greater Kaybob Duverney oil play with assets in the North Simonette, Ante Creek and Two Creeks areas. The Company's Flatrock asset is an emerging, undeveloped Montney asset for both gas condensate and oil development. Its Pouce Coupe asset is a high-quality Montney asset spanning from the gas condensate to light oil window with repeatable and highly economic inventory. The Company's Simonette asset is an opportunity-rich asset with scale and substantial infrastructure in place. The Company has 100% interest in certain Simonette gross overriding royalties (the GORRs).

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Logan Energy Corp

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Post by retiredcfon Mar 21, 2025 9:02am

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Post# 36503314

TD

Q4 LARGELY IN LINE; PLENTY OF CATALYSTS IN 2025

THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

March 21, 2025
Price: C$0.67 (03/19/2025)

Price Target: C$1.50

BUY (1)

Production is ramping as expected, while cash cost improvements were encouraging. We forecast Logan will be the fastest growing E&P under coverage. The company is one of the few entities in the earlier-stage of growth/development that, with success, has the potential to create significant value for shareholders. Ultimately, Logan will be feedstock for a larger consolidator.

Event: Q4/24 results, 2024 reserves, an operations update and unchanged 2025 guidance.

Impact: SLIGHTLY POSITIVE

Q4 Highlights: Q4 CFPS of $0.03/shr was in line with TD Cowen ($0.03) and Consensus ($0.03). Although headline CFPS appears in line, total cash flow was above our forecast (+15%) on lower-than-expected cash costs across the board. Volumes of 9.5 mBOE/d were in line with TD Cowen (9.5 mBOE/d) and Consensus (9.5 mBOE/d).

2024 Reserves: Reserves increased significantly across all categories, and were further boosted by acquisitions during the year. PDP increased 48%, 1P by 45%, and 2P by 42%. On an organic basis, 2P reserves increased 25% y/y, replacing 730% of 2024 volumes.

Our View: The reserve book remains conservative and does not reflect significant potential upside on Logan's Montney and Duvernay assets. At YE24, only 101 net locations are booked in the Montney (15% of total identified net inventory of 654) and only 3 Duvernay wells were booked (2% of total identified net inventory of 154). FDC only equates to 5.7 years of 2025E capex, versus the Montney average of ~10 years.

Organic efficiency metrics were not provided; however, the company added total PDP/2P reserves at a cost of $27.08 and 16.99/BOE, respectively.

Operations Update: 2025 guidance was reiterated (aside from $6mm of capital that was not spent in Q4 moving into early 2025). 2025 volume guidance remains 13.7 mBOE/d with the new gas plant at Pouce still tracking to be online by Q2/25 - brining total capacity up to 10 mBOE/d in the area.

What we are Looking For In the Near-Term: While we didn't get any new well rates in the latest release, there are several key pads/wells in the 2025 program:

Simonette (on prod'n this month): Two pads (four wells) at S. Simonette and a two-well pad at N. Simonette. Four of these wells were recently brought on-stream with early results above or in-line with LGN's type curve. Two additional wells will be on-stream by the end of March.
Pouce (on prod'n in Q3): Two new pads (nine wells) post start-up of the 4-19 gas plant;
Ante Creek Duvernay (on prod'n Summer 2025): First Duvernay well in the area; and
Flatrock (on prod'n in Q4): Two wells.