colourama wrote:
Does anyone have any estimates for the top and bottom lines in Q4? I haven't come up with any numbers but here is my list of things to look out for:

Positives:
- Full quarter of the CHCA acquisition
- Continued growth in the north
- One of the two transport contracts no longer a drag on financials (not sure if they have terminated the second)
- No further acquisition-related costs
- Costs on tech rollout finished?

Negatives:
- Higher interest rates on debt
- Soft quarter in terms of hours billed
- Inflationary pressures on wages/costs

If we weigh the positives against the negatives, what type of quarter are we expecting?

When does the selling end?

We should get an additional $500k -$1m in revenue from the full quarter of CHCA results which should provide an added boost of up to $100k in ebitda. I expect a further decline in revenue from Code Bleu and Premier Health which may negate the revenue increase from the latest acquisition. However, Premier Health Nordik should get a nice revenue bump given the commentary on Q3. 


"Since the start of the fiscal year Premier Health Nordik signed contractual arrangements with eleven hospitals, mainly in Northern Ontario and we anticipate a positive impact of these contracts on the revenues before year-end."

Premier Health Nordik achieved ~ $3.4m in Q3 and so we will get a substantial sequential increase in revenue from this division. 

The medical transportation division cancelled one of 2 contracts at the end of Q3. This could have as much as around $300k impact on revenue in Q4. 
 


I would say there is a high likelihood revenue will be higher than Q3 of ~ $22.4m. This opinion is predicated on the belief that Premier Health Nordik will have meaningful contributions from these 11 hospital and that it will at least  offset the decrease in revenue from the medical transportation division. In addition, the CHCA full contribution will at least offset the decline in revenue from Code Bleu and Premier Health. 


Let's take a closer look at ebitda. In Q3 we incurred $0.1m in transaction costs. In additional, a full contribution of CHCA should add about $0.1m in ebitda. Code Bleu and Premier Health will experience a decline in revenue and $0.2-0.3m reduction in ebitda. Finally, Premier Health Nordik will get a boost to ebitda margins but it's unclear by how much. It is also unclear what kind of revenue and ebitda numbers will arise from the medical transportation division. Will there be additional disposals of vehicles used in the medical transportation division? If not, then we get an additional $0.2m in ebitda. 
 

I would say there is a decent chance that both ebitda and revenue will exceed Q3; that is, $22.4 m in revenue and $1.6m in ebitda. There are exogenous factors that could impact ebitda in the short run that are not recurring such as ERP costs or additional technological improvements.