Reitmans Ord Shs V.RET

WTI oil dropping like a Rock

[nozzpack]

15% in the last 10 days or so.

Another 10% and we are down to $60 which is where we were before the scam.

2% inflation is predicted in Canada in the second half of this year.
I never believed it but oil prices have been the main driver  supply channels are now almost back to normal.

If this comes to pass, you will see operating costs becoming cheaper and consumption levels also increasing while interest rates will revert to 2% or so.

This will drive both revenues and profits for those who clothe ordinary people like Reitmans .

[TheCount11]

StatsCan has no idea what inflation is and has under reported it for last couple of years.    While I get you point that lower oil prices means more disposible income, oil price does not correlate with Reitmans profits.  

[Torontojay]

Canada has been under reporting inflation for years now.  Oil prices is a function of supply and demand. Even with a decrease in oil output, demand and future expectations are very weak. This is similar to what's going on in the housing market. Inventory levels in housing are at record lows and yet home prices are trending down. Demand is so weak that a significant drop in supply is

[TheCount11]

One thing I learnt a long time ago was that I could not forecast oil supply or demand and am quite skeptical of people who say they can.  Too complex.  Too political.  We have seen IEA butt heads with OPEC and vice versa (https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-sec-gen-iea-should-be-very-careful-about-undermining-key-oil-investments-2023-04-27/).  The oil futures market is

[Torontojay]

Right. That's why it's best to look at the bigger picture.  Which direction is the world heading?  Are we in a new bull market?  Is the labour force structurally changing? I.e more retirees, fewer workers. What is China's contribution to demand? Is there economy slowing down?  I'm of the opinion that oil is anticipating a slowdown in the global

[TheCount11]

I honestly don't know.  All I know is I get Big Picture wrong and I have the scars to prove it. Thankfully I am fortunate that I have grown my investment portfolio to a size where I can sleep well at night ignoring the big picture and underweighting macro sensitive areas like O&G.  Ignoring the big picture which I would get wrong allows me to focus on individual companies. 

[pennylane101]

Congrats Count on growing your portfolio.  It's the best feeling in the world. A good night's sleep is greatly underrated. This is why I could never short stocks.  Who needs the stress?  I'm aiming for a 40/60 portfolio right now.  I know a few guru investors are advocating liquidating all stocks and sitting in cash but it seems a bit drastic.

[Torontojay]

How about short term treasuries?  Canada t-bills (3month) pay 4.4% and US 3 month t-bills pay 4.92%. Then just roll over these short term trades with new t-bills when they mature as it eliminates duration risk but it gives you a decent return that is beating forward looking inflation numbers.  Here is something to think about. The Federal Funds rate has a higher yield than the S&

[TheCount11]

Thanks!  Yes a good nights sleep is highly under rated.  I prefer lending my shares to short sellers.  IBKR pays me 50% of the income it earns from lending the shares. Both RET and RET.A borrow rate is above 20%.  Marco tourists calling for a recession have been shorting a basket of retail over the last year while paying through the nose.  Probably the easiest money