Therma Bright Inc V.THRM

6 reasons why I invested in THRM...math-based incl. politics

[Watchman21]

 Why I invested in THRM, and why I think its easily a $1 stock now, $2 at US Clinical Study submission, and then higher upon FDA EUA & initial sales...

6 Reasons why I believe in this stock’s potential… and I am willing to share these thought, because I believe all can make money without impacting others making it. Analogous to me having a job, doesn’t preclude you from getting a job too. :)

Reason #1: MedMira (MIR.v) -
- MIR.v current market cap of $185m on 700M shares outstanding, and this price is based on the speculation they will create a COVID-19 / Influenza A / Influenza B Rapid Nasal Antigen Test. This is going through the normal FDA process, per their release, not FDA EUA, based on Influenza A & B don’t warrant an Emergency Use Authorization consideration. Just think of the Clinical Study complexities, as well as all the different reactive studies that need to be addressed with Covid19, let alone Influenza A & B. We thought the challenges of a saliva test with reactive studies and clinical is bad, think about the Tri-Facta of 3 viruses. Is it Valuable? HECK, YES! but 6-month out minimum.
- MIR.V is about the same size company as THRM, based in Nova Scotia, Canada
- MIR.v $185M valuation divided by 220m THRM shares outstanding, would put THRM valuation at $0.84 CAD - $1.00 CAD. And that is based on the fact that THRM is much, much closer to wrapping this thing up with US Clinical Study, complete reactive studies and FDA EUA.

Reason #2: Industry Performance - The Big Guys
- DIASORIN & LUMINEX: Diasorin acquired Luminex, both FDA-EUA rapid antigen test makers. Total Covid Test revenue of 2 companies for 3 quarters (9 months): Euro$ 264.7 million of Total Revenue for 3 quarters: Euro$858.9. Current P/E ratio for DIASORIN is 30.7. So project out 12 months of Covid Test Revenue to Euro$352M. At Euro$5 per test, that 70M tests a year or 6M tests per month. Now take 40% margin/net revenue : Euro$140.82M multiplied by only at 20.0 P/E ratio (as COVID Tests will be an ebb& flow business) = Euro$2.81B valuation. COVID TEST DIVISION IS VALUED AT EURO$2.81B of DIASORINS Business. (NOTE: DIASORIN TOTAL VALUE TODAY IS EURO$8.24B)

- BIORAD: (another FDA-EUA rapid antigen test makers). Third-quarter 2021 (Q3'21) net sales were $747.0 million. Clinical Diagnostics segment net sales for the third quarter were $372.2 million (50%). Current P/E ratio for BIORAD is 45.88. Multiple 3rd Quarter revenue by 4 quarters = $1.488B multiply by 40% margin/net revenue = $600M annual net revenue X PE Ratio of 20.00 (as COVID Tests will be an ebb & flow business) = $12.0B. BIORAD’s COVID/DIAGNOSTIC DIVISION ESTIMATED VALUE $12.0B. (NOTE: BIORAD -LABORATORIES TOTAL VALUE IS $20.18B)

- ABBOTT: Abbott made $1.9-2b in Covid tests for 1 quarter at $5 per test, that’s 400M tests per quarter. Add in another 50M/month more tests for increasing At Home tests production to 100M/month per LA Times…(note: Abbott probably already makes 50M At Home tests now). The additional 50M/month at $5 per test adds another $750M per quarter. So $2.75B per quarter X 4 quarters = $11B. X 40% margin/net revenue = $4.4B X P/E ratio of 20.0 = $88B of ABBOTT’S VALUE. Makes sense as Covid Tests made up 20% of Abbotts total revenue in Q3, and therefore 20% its total value. (NOTE: ABBOTT P/E ratio is 35.96, and ABBOTTS TOTAL VALUE IS $239.957B)

Reason #3: Supply & Demand (As an Economist, this should be my #1)
- Currently there are 26 Covid-19 Rapid Antigen Test Manufacturers (technically 25 with Diasorin?Luminex merger) on the "Gold Standard" FDA-EUA List, and 12 are At Home. Neither list of companies can keep up with production for both At Home/Over The Counter Retail and Point of Care (PoC)
- PoC: Currently has long lines outside clinics, especially leading up and through weekends, when everyone is traveling or out and about. Demand is high for PoC testing, as noted with all media and news outlets covering this rush on Point of Care and Drive Thru Test Clinics.
- Retail/Over The Counter At Home TestS: Currently “OUT OF STOCK” can be read on store shelves across Canada, USA, UK, EU and basically the whole world. Even with LA Times saying Abbott will expand At Home Test Kit production to 100M per month, and Quidel 50m per month. And Biden Admin building a plant for $187M ready in 4 years to produce 100m tests, Supply is way way under DEMAND (and on Biden's Covid19 Test Plan... who’s tests? or will they produce everyone's tests - Abbotts, Quidel, ACON, THERMA????)

Reason #4: Political Support
- Huge Global Support from nations around the world, shoveling money into vaccines and tests every 3-6 months. Trump Admin had 2 Covid19 Recovery spends - Cares Act (March 2020) and Covid Recovery Act (December 2020). Now Biden Admin has added 3 more - American Rescue Plan (March 2021), COVID Vaccine/Test Expansion (August) and Omicron Vaccine/Test Emergency Program (December 2021). Yes.... we can expect more funding on its way in 3-6 months…. The well is not dry yet with Government spending in US, Canada or the world.

Reason #5: NEW PRODUCT LINES
- COVID/Influenza A&B via Saliva - Why should Medmira MIR.v be the only test manufacturer to create a test to detect Covid-19, Influenza A & Influenza B…. So can Therma with saliva. Also other saliva-based disease detection solutions, such as gingivitis, diabetes, throat cancer, etc…. ACUVID Covid-19 Saliva Test creates a great LAUNCH PAD for other saliva-based rapid detection tests.

Reason #6: THRM ITSELF.
- A buildup from all the above 5 points -

- THRM Shares Outstanding: 220M

- THRM Market Cap/Valuation; $85.62M. —— Should match MIR.v valuation of $185M, based on closeness to US Clinical Study Submission, FDA EUA and expected sales. That would make THRM's share price between $0.84-$1.00 per share

- THRM Production Capability: 2.5M per month (Per Dec 1, 2021 release: https://stockhouse.com/news/press-releases/2021/12/01/therma-bright-expands-manufacturing-capabilities-to-meet-new-fda-eua-guidance)

- THRM Rapid Antigen Test Strip Production Capability - 25m per month (This is THRM’s IP, and this strip gets inserted into the plastic lateral flow cartridge), per Stockhouse Video - A Market ‘Game Changer’ for Rapid COVID-19 At-Home Testing? From March 24, 2021.

My Valuation
- Current value: $0.39 CAD per share. (Valuation $85M ). THIS IS A JOKE!

- True Value: $0.84-$1.00 per share. (Should match MIR.V Value $185m+)

- Post US Clinical Study Valuation: $2.20 CAD, as I believe THRM’s valuation should be $500M CAD as it awaits FDA EUA stamp

- Post FDA EUA + 2.5M sales per month (current monthly production capabilities) X $5 per test $12.5M/month X40% margin/net revenue = $5M USD X 12 months $60M net revenue X P/E ratio of 20 (like everyone else) = $1.2B USD or $5.45 USD / $6.90 CAD Per share

Again...reasons why I invested in THRM... You all may have your own, but my find value in this as wel. Who knows?!?! Anyway...GLTA

[spygate]

Watchman, very well thought out post...I wouid question on the piece why'I think its easily a $1 stock now'' what you think is all well and good but its not a $1 stock now, the market tells us its a .39 stock right now...it may get to the levels you suggest but lets me accurate on existing performance and until that changes we are a .39 stock Happy Trading Everyone

[Watchman21]

I'll spell out my analysis. Medmira (MIR.v) is valued at $185M with nothing but a hope and a prayer to get their COVID19 / Influenza A / Influenza B Rapid Nasal Antigen Test approved...This at minimum will take over 6 months or more via the regular FDA process.  That's with a gross volume of shares - 700M shares outstanding, I simply take that valuation of $185M divide by 220m THRM

[mooseslayer]

Good posts Watchman. Some of us appreciate good posts here. Keep up the good work, we will all be rewarded soon.

[Vincenzovega]

I also agree, great post Watchman. When Therma gets approval will be step one. Step two - the power punch, would be the at home use approval!! If they can only double their strip making, this stock will be a coal turning into a diamond.

[mooseslayer]

Something in my head remembers Rob stating or a NR stating that the reason for this last set of clinical trials was to see the viability and ease to use as a home test . 

[Smokey1958]

You are absolutely correct, Moose. Based on the fact that we didn't hear otherwise I expect these trials were also used for the cross reactivity tests although that is not icluded in the overview of the clinical trials, updated yesterday. https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05119530?term=Therma&cond=COVID-19&draw=2&rank=2 To establish the performance characteristics of the

[mooseslayer]

Here it is...it specifically mentions home use a couple times. Toronto, Ontario--(Newsfile Corp. - December 1, 2021) - Therma Bright Inc. (TSXV: THRM) ("Therma" or the "Company"), developer of its smart-enabled AcuVid™ COVID-19 Rapid Antigen Saliva Test and other progressive diagnostic and medical device technologies, is pleased to announce it has signed an agreement

[Trueblood]

Pumper moose give it a rest your desperation is sad.

[mooseslayer]

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[Trueblood]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy