Theralase Technologies Inc. V.TLT

Another buyout in the small pharma space

[Gooseybear]

Check out kidney drug KDNY buyout by Novartis

[riverrrow]

Novartis is paying $3.2 billion US and up to $3.5 billion final tally.  Novartis buys Chinook for $3.5 bln in race to treat rare kidney disease | Reuters

[riverrrow]

Interestingly, on May 16, 2023 Muddy Waters Capital put out a report slamming Altrasentan.

[Alamir1111]

Altrasentan is studied for multiple cancer application including lung.

[ScienceFirst]

Interesting as this is for a rare form of kidney disease, so not an important pool of patients. Also: Novartis has stepped in before Chinook has a chance to validate that idea in a phase 3 trial, which is due to read out in the fourth quarter. 

[Alamir1111]

Also interesting shareholders voted for the buyout. But lawfirms think they sold on the cheap side.. Maybe there is was a bigger fish to fry

[N0taP00p]

Thanks Gooseybear. Looks like a small float of 66M shares, a very experienced management team and BOD, very well funded (had $350 M  cash) and a pipeline of drugs with many trials at different phases with close to 400 or more patients, all focused on one body organ, the kidney. Had a very tiny revenue stream.  That last part seems to be a close match with TLT. No sarcasm intended. Maybe

[chry200030]

So based on KDNY, TLT will be bought out for .46. Less than 2x the share price... 

[Alamir1111]

Don't forget kdny 350 mil cash in bank

[riverrrow]

LOL.  I don't know what math equations you used to come up with a 46 cent price tag.  I also don't know what else of value KDNY has, but a $4 billion CDN price tag would equate to at least $10 a TLT share.  GLTA.

[Longholder99]

I get the same numbers riverrow

[O12009]

Years ago when we talked buyout the number was always 8 billion and that was before Covid treatments and vaccines. That would be about $20 pre share.

[ScienceFirst]

Market valuation once a NMIBC jv is announced will be different than a market indication after a buyout is announced are 2 different things. A buyout would have to include at least Ph. 1b data on NSCLC and GBM.  Assuming that such data is convincing (helping patients with a better outcome than SOC), 10B$+US is a reasonable valuation given that NSCLC is the #1 cancer in both the US and