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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Victoria Gold Corp VITFF

Victoria Gold Corp. is a gold mining company. The Company’s flagship asset is its 100% owned Dublin Gulch property, which hosts the Eagle, Olive and Raven gold deposits along with numerous targets along the Potato Hills Trend including Nugget, Lynx and Rex Peso. Dublin Gulch is situated in the central Yukon, Canada, approximately 375 kilometers (km) north of the capital city of Whitehorse. The... see more

GREY:VITFF - Post Discussion

Victoria Gold Corp > VGCX - November Investor Presentation
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Post by HoneyBadger77 on Nov 07, 2023 6:30pm

VGCX - November Investor Presentation

Not sure how long this Presentation has been posted on VGCX website so for those who haven't seen this yet.   Victoria Gold Corp. | Corporate Presentation (vgcx.com)

Page 13 - Raven drill results highlights don't look too bad when you see them all together. 

Page 14 references the tax synergy from the Acquisition of Sabre Gold's Yukon Assets.  In a recent video interview John mentioned that VGCX corporate tax rate is about 27% so applying the $44 mil in Capital Losses that came with the Sabre deal against $44 mil of VGCX Q3 Capital Gains will offset VGCX net tax payable by about $11 mil.  Regardless whether VGCX choses to apply the entire $44 mil Capital Loss (or only a portion) toward 2023 Q3 Capital Gains, the result should be a much better Q3 result than shareholders are anticipating.  Given the anticipated lower Q3 net profit per share due to lower production and lower grade ore stacked on the pad, applying this tax strategy in Q3 would make sense but then who knows, they may decide to wait until year end and apply it then.   Either way, this $11 mil net back in tax essentially pays for the Sabre assets acquisition so that was a good move.       

Page 15 - Institutional Shareholders appear relatively the same.  Recent SEDAR search didn't show any filings that would concern me.

Page 16 - indicates we can expect Q3 AISC to be near the high end of guidance. 

Page 18 - indicates a Forward Gold Sales Loss of $2 mil CAD for the period ending Sep 30th, 2023 (9 months of 2023) offset by a $1.6 mil CAD gain realized from Currency Forward Sale and Interest Rate - Fixed for Floating Swap.  This strategy helped reduce the $2mil loss to $400K CAD.

The Q3 financials should be out this week.  Based on the charts and technicals, unless we get a negative earnings surprise, in my opinion we should finally be near bottoming at today's share price.

HB77
Comment by Swingandmiss on Nov 08, 2023 8:58am
Thanks Honey, that was helpful. As far as when the bottom will come in, the mining sector is not trading on fundamentals right now because as long as the Fed keeps talking tough, this sector is dead money short term. We have seen the pattern repeat itself 10x over the past year. We get weaker economic data, or progress on inflation, and the market assumes no more hikes. The mining sector takes ...more  
Comment by HoneyBadger77 on Nov 08, 2023 1:05pm
Agreed Swingandmiss, fundamentals mean little in this sector right now and this will continue for as long as the US Fed keeps publicly broadcasting its intent to continue to raise rates and get inflation back down to its target 2%.  The good news is that the FED appears to be very near to the end of hiking rates which should start putting some downward pressure on the US dollar that has ...more  
Comment by kegman on Nov 08, 2023 2:21pm
I agree 99%.  The issue that could hurt would be wasted money on BYN and/or moving too soon on the recent addition.  They must prove they can run eagle without interruption and get the AISC down.  Pay off debt as promised and we go back up drastically.  Frankly getting the ground manager from Couer has really helped.  Again, John did not do a great job at running the mine. ...more  
Comment by Greatdaysahead on Nov 08, 2023 3:07pm
They have been paying down the debts thenpas quarter. Looking at the latest presentation, twonof the three loans are down.  We should have the FS out tonorrow or Friday imo. Forward guidance is going to be key. 3rd quarter AISC is a big unknown for me: many factors: wildfire, exc rate, inflTion, wages, energy costs vs no big oneTime charges,  I have still difficulty ...more  
Comment by HoneyBadger77 on Nov 08, 2023 6:32pm
So Greatdaysahead, it looks like in Q3 they paid down $9 mil US on the Term Loan Facility and $6 mil US on the CAT Equipment Lease.  So a total of about $15 mil US or about $19 mil CAD.  Had they not made the Sabre assets acquisition they probably would have paid down some of the Revolving Credit Facility as well.  However, the Sabre assets acquisition was a more prudent move given ...more  
Comment by barringtondolby on Nov 08, 2023 9:32pm
HB77, that is a pretty impressive analysis you have given, and obviously must have taken a lot of time on your part.. I very much appreciate you providing this amount of detail, it certainly helps me. As you saythough, we should all do our own DODD Thaks again. 
Comment by MVargas on Nov 09, 2023 1:53am
I would also agree that this is stellar work by HB, but the market generally either doesn’t know or care. What matters (to them) is earnings/share and the balance sheet.    If the current debt is US $181 million, that is approximately C$250 million. At June 30, 2023 it stood at C$259.7 million. At Dec. 31, 2021 it was C$216 million.    Per Q2 financials, “The Company ...more  
Comment by HoneyBadger77 on Nov 09, 2023 1:21pm
Thanks for the kudos M Vargas.  I would however argue that the market actually does know and does care but that 'THE MARKET' (let's call them the current share price controllers) are a much smaller group than most realize and they are doing all they can to look for negative news and drive the share price down.   And again with our low daily trading volumes, controlling ...more  
Comment by MVargas on Nov 09, 2023 2:53pm
HB, we'll see when the Q3 financials are issued how "incorrect" my comment is about decline of ounces in the HLP inventory. In Q3, VG reported placing of 2.3 million tonnes of 0.65 g/t ore on the HLP.  Recoverable gold is  2,300,000 x 0.65 / 31.1 g/oz x 76% recovery = 36,534 oz. They "produced" 41,561 oz which means a drawdown of 5,000 oz from inventory. Ounces ...more  
Comment by Greatdaysahead on Nov 09, 2023 5:27am
Thank you for this informative post. Great help understanding the full pictures. You, mvargas and some others are always kind sharing opinions and knowledge! Appreciated.
Comment by kegman on Nov 09, 2023 8:47am
So then why are we trading in the mid $5 range?  Why has management allowed one of their institutional investors to play the stock and keep it down here?  THere are far too many shorts traded daily.  Who is accumulating that it is not showing on the slide that shows the big investors?  I believe my shares are safe but I will no longer be shooting for long term.  WE will ...more  
Comment by Bucky86 on Nov 09, 2023 9:34am
I agree for the most part Kegman with what you said, I'd also be tempted to sell off at the 10$ mark. Do you or anyone think Q4 financials will move us out of this rut/stall pattern from manipulation if the results are as expected?
Comment by kegman on Nov 09, 2023 10:22am
I think we follow the same annual trading pattern that this stock always does.  Look at the 2 year chart and have a sip of someting you like.  Snowed here last night.  2 dogs are happy.  They don't care about the SP either.  If they only knew how much Costco Milk Bones and Yummy Bones cost!  
Comment by HoneyBadger77 on Nov 08, 2023 4:00pm
Well Kegman, in a recent Banyan video I believe Tara mentioned that their treasury is well funded for the the coming year.  Moving too quickly on the Sabre assets is a possibility but I don't think the near term expenses should be much more than a few million dollars. Paying off debt is already underway and John also mentioned this a priority in a recent video interview so I think he ...more  
Comment by Greatdaysahead on Nov 08, 2023 4:07pm
Just one note. I think the note about aisc, being near the upper band, is from an analyst but I guess vcgx mgt provided this comment because it is close of the reality
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