Long Run Explor Ltd Ord WFREF

Quarter

[can1]

At a quick glance, the 1st qrtr results look good. A good hard look at sedar filings will give a better feel for

how the results were achieved.  .39/sh cash flow is solid for the quarter. The net debt is a little high at $366mill ,however they did aggresively drill this quarter.  Given this was the first quarter management truly had control, 23,600/boe is very solid.

[JohnJBond]

Look again bosse   From March 07, 2013 news release   Fourth quarter funds from operations was $55.8 million or $0.48 per share (basic), (excluding transaction costs of $17.4 million or $0.15 per share (basic)).    

[OneStar]

I could not figure out how they got to that number. (Q4 2012 funds from operations) That was not even a full quarter. Overall results for this Q are good. Their own CF for 2013 according to the presentations is $230M/126m shares= $1.86 So production needs to increase, which it will as the exit production for this qtr is 26300 BOE/D vs avg of 23611 BOE/D. Also it would be interesting to see what

[JohnJBond]

26300 boe exit Q1/13 is wonderful.    At least 600 boe of that was purchased.   Anyway you look at the producion you have to be pleased.   Given the average of Q1/13 is very close to the exit Q4/12, then most of the increased production shown at exit Q1 was added at the end of Q1.   The fact that they gave exit Q1/13 rather than current production (NR date is May 7/13

[JohnJBond]

Re Duvernay.   In my view, if they had anything good to say about their Duernay well they would have said it.   As far as I can see, they muffed the first hole, then had to recomplete it.    They`ve put off publishing the results yet again, likely because they are not positive...........or if they are positive, they are not attractive on a cost/return basis.

[OneStar]

John J You are right on both counts IMO

[OneStar]

This from the Q1 2013 release: COMMODITY ENVIRONMENT WTI crude oil prices averaged US$94.37 per barrel in the first quarter of 2013, compared to US$102.93 per barrel for the first quarter of 2012 and US$88.18 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2012. During the first quarter of 2013, Edmonton light sweet oil traded at an average discount of $6.18 per barrel compared to WTI. This compares to an

[JohnJBond]

    Rev per barrel $49.12  in Q1 2013 and $53.99 in Q4       

[OneStar]

The rev per barrel of $49.12 in Q1 vs Q4 of $53.99 difference does not make up the gap. Also Q1 output is about 10% higher then Q4. Even if you take into account the higher operating cost of $1.75 /boe in Q1 2013.

[bosse]

You were right !! I took the info on their release an I did not pay attention to the $ 17M or so deducted from the the Q4 2012 cash flow.Kind of misleading because I the cash flow is indeed lower. Same thing for  the Duvernay play.But this  is just the begining and this might be the catalyst for production improvent going forward!!  The market seem, for now, to give credit for

[OneStar]

I don't think the maket will them any credit for a while. Count on this being dead money. The company slipped in an acquisition of 600BOE/day on March 28th. However in the highlight they state that they still look to meet the full year production guidance of 25000BOE/day.  They could have mentioned that they increased the guidance to  25500 BOE/day because of the acquisition and

[can1]

One star.  I agree with you about LRE being dead money at this time. I wasn't impressed with the way they presented the report. My biggest concern was the duvernay play. I don't think it's as good as they had expected.   Their silence is deafening.  The results were good but given the fact I don't think all the old  WFE supporters are out of the stock. It will

[barneyj44]

Tend to agree, sold some shares yesterday and bought some suncor and added to bombardier. Co.ls doing okay but it's all about dividends now adays, still hoping to get a small one from lre in the near future, that's why I'm keeping a position..