Long Run Explor Ltd Ord WFREF

Increase in 2013 ave forecast production

[JohnJBond]

Long Run's forecast 2013 average annual production volumes increase from 25,000 boe per day to 25,200 boe per day.

[OneStar]

Based on the 1 qtr production of  23611boe/d and 2nd qtr of 24431boe/d and the projection of the 3rd qtr of 25300boe/d and with the latest nr they project the annual production volumes to be 25200boe/d which by my calculations mean that the q4 production will be very close to 27500boe/d. with over 50& light oil. This is looking better all the time. Now throw in a 60cents dividend starting

[Box927]

I would like to see things in this order: 1. Pay down debt. Pay off the mortgage so to speak and keep the books looking as good as possible. Keep a debt to cash flow ratio of less than 1 to 1. 2. Buy back shares while they are undervalued. 3. Drill some of that drilling location inventory. Grow the oil production vs gas production. IMO gas is going to stay weak until the LNG infrastructure is

[fullyautomatic]

I would like to see things in this order: 1. Sell at a massive premium to the chinese 2. Take profits

[Box927]

Really. Sell to the Chinese?? I would rather keep it . The canadian intermediate and junior O & G company space is getting kind of thin in the number of companies around. This is not good for the industry in general. JMO Regards

[fullyautomatic]

I am being slightly facetious. I do agree with your points if the company isn't taken over. I have been here too long (came with Orion oil and gas). Company is beginning to show promise market needs time to forgive the over promised and under delivered performance of all previous parts, especially Orion and Galleon. Longrun seems to understand this, it needs to continue. A dividend shouldn'

[OneStar]

I have been here since the galleon days. I bought because the promising land position especially in the Duvernay. The land position has improved since but I strongly feel the the company can create enough FCF to pay investors a dividend. Also a dividend will attract new investors who are looking for returns. Especailly with the land position, the exploration options, the drilling inventory and the

[Box927]

I have also been around sinse the Galleon days and I would also like a dividend at some point. But I think keeping the company metrics in good shape is the first priority. The market will feel much more comfortable in a company with a gas to oil ratio of 25/75 than 50/50 and a debt to cash flow ratio of 1 to 1 rather than 1.5 to 1. Also IMO buying back shares will be a good thing for our CF/share

[JohnJBond]

Onestar. Where did you get teh Q3 projected production of 25300 boe/day?    Is that from the company, in one of their prior statements, or is that something you came up with on your own?

[OneStar]

From Sept 13 NR. Operational Update Long Run's 2013 capital program has been successful on a number of fronts. Most notable is the combination of providing growth in daily production and reserves with a focus on light oil and the continued increases in Long Run's inventory of future drilling locations. In a program underpinned by production increases in core plays at Edmonton (Redwater

[JohnJBond]

Thank you very much. Using Q2 corporate net backs, and allowing for the increased oil price in Q3, we should see cash flow in Q3 inexcess of Q2, likely around $70 million ish or 55 c/share ish (give or take). Getting a quarterly forecast exactly right is a mugs game, but one can see there is a very high probablility that Q3 cash flow will exceed Q2 cash flow, and that should be positive for the