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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Long Run Explor Ltd Ord WFREF

"Long Run Exploration Ltd is engaged in the development, exploration and production of oil and natural gas in western Canada."

GREY:WFREF - Post Discussion

View:
Post by Power1 on Dec 01, 2014 7:21pm

Caution

I held this company back when it was galleon and am sniffing around at bargain basement deals.  Each to their own and do your due diligence. 

The balance sheet is weak in paticular cash.  Cash is king when you hit the "Circle of Life"

I think its fair to say the dividend is done at prevailing oil price and the reduction in cashflow could cause issues with their credit facilities.  Here's a cut out of the quarterleys (look on sedar if this doens't work) 

The credit facilities of $695 million consist of a
$655 million revolving syndicated facility and a $4
0
million operating facility. Total borrowings permit
ted under these facilities cannot exceed the
borrowing base, which is determined by the lenders
on a semi-annual basis or upon the occurrence
of a material event. The next borrowing base review
will occur prior to November 30, 2014 and the
next annual review will occur prior to May 31, 2015
.
Security for the credit facilities at September 30,
2014 included a demand debenture for $1.5 billion
which provides for a first ranking security interes
t and floating charge over all of the assets and
property of the Company.
The credit facilities bear interest at the prime ra
te or Libor rate, plus a margin, and in respect of
banker’s acceptances requires the payment of a stam
ping fee equal to a margin. The margins range
from 1.00% per annum to 3.50% per annum, based upon
the Company’s debt to earnings before
interest, taxes, exploration expenses, and all non-
cash items including depletion, depreciation and
amortization (“EBITDA”) ratio. For the nine months
ended September 30, 2014, the effective interest
rate, including standby and other fees, was 4.4% (S
eptember 30, 2013 – 4.4%).
As at September 30, 2014, the Company is in complia
nce with all covenants, obligations and
conditions of its credit agreement. The covenants i
n the facilities relate to debt to EBITDA, interest
coverage, permitted dispositions and permitted hedg
ing.
I think I will sit on the sidelines for a bit.
0
million operating facility. Total borrowings permit
ted under these facilities cannot exceed the
borrowing base, which is determined by the lenders
on a semi-annual basis or upon the occurrence
of a material event. The next borrowing base review
will occur prior to November 30, 2014 and the
next annual review will occur prior to May 31, 2015
.
Security for the credit facilities at September 30,
2014 included a demand debenture for $1.5 billion
which provides for a first ranking security interes
t and floating charge over all of the assets and
property of the Company.
The credit facilities bear interest at the prime ra
te or Libor rate, plus a margin, and in respect of
banker’s acceptances requires the payment of a stam
ping fee equal to a margin. The margins range
from 1.00% per annum to 3.50% per annum, based upon
the Company’s debt to earnings before
interest, taxes, exploration expenses, and all non-
cash items including depletion, depreciation and
amortization (“EBITDA”) ratio. For the nine months
ended September 30, 2014, the effective interest
rate, including standby and other fees, was 4.4% (S
eptember 30, 2013 – 4.4%).
As at September 30, 2014, the Company is in complia
nce with all covenants, obligations and
conditions of its credit agreement. The covenants i
n the facilities relate to debt to EBITDA, interest
coverage, permitted dispositions and permitted hedg
ing.
Comment by iwpete on Dec 01, 2014 7:35pm
You want to talk about real debt. The USA just crossed over $18 trillion of national debt, a 70% increase since Obama took office. US debt clock
Comment by Power1 on Dec 01, 2014 7:38pm
That is why I'm a Gold Bug.   It's like holding one of the few Life jackets on the titanic. 
Comment by AT1234 on Dec 01, 2014 7:45pm
You are right. I was looking at the same numbers, wondering if they are in danger of violating their debt covenants. By my estimates, it will take a prolonged period of oil being under $55 for that to happen. If oil stays low, LRE may have to dispose of some of their properties at bargain basement prices in order to reduce the debt. I understand that LRE was trying to do some dispositions but have ...more  
Comment by ppp on Dec 01, 2014 8:15pm
LRE's enterprise value is a touch over $1B now, or about $27K/boe. That's about half of similar companies. LRE is riskier due to their high debt load. Does the risk justify 50% lower valuation? I personally doubt that. I also doubt that the dividend is much of a factor because it can be cancelled quickly (and should be cancelled or lowered to 1c in Dec, IMHO). This ...more  
Comment by qwqw on Dec 01, 2014 9:43pm
I too expect a takeover,probably before  year-end. Sprott is sitting with a $60 mil loss which they would rather not report for Q4. FYI  400,000 shares and buying like there's no tomorrow.
Comment by ILUVDIVIDENDS on Dec 01, 2014 10:13pm
This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy
Comment by JohnJBond on Dec 01, 2014 7:55pm
Lets be clear here.    If LRE gets cost to a debt covenance limit, they will have to cut their dividend. Cutting the dividend gives the debt holders $84 million per year more security! 84 million will be pretty close to what it takes to replace the lost revenue from reduced oil revenue (if prices stay low for a year).  That means cutting the dividend will remove the financial ...more  
Comment by OneStar on Dec 01, 2014 8:18pm
Johnjbond I totally agree with your assessment. The company will not default. Great assets, low cost and predictable plays. Just implemented waterflod in q4 2014. They will keep 2015 pps the same as 2014. Will likely reduce or eliminate the dividend. Still well balanced between oil and gas. OS
Comment by 99999gold on Dec 01, 2014 8:24pm
yes that 84m helps but its doesn't quite get them there. They'll need some sort of cushion here, I suspect an equity raise coming and its looking like 1.50 and surely disposition of assets that will be tough to do - pennies on the dollar, and restructuring of their debts - hopefully its not like mafia style debt financing.  as for todays' action on the stock - american MMs went ...more  
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