FormerXBC Inc XEBEQ

BGX opportunity - inefficient markets?

[Ciao]

8,500 farms primed for biogas

XBC’s BGX solution is applicable to 80% of these farms, potential 6,800 BGX units

$12.75B CDN (8500 x .80 x $1.5M USD) potential BGX addressable market

they currently have 30% market share (note: other players are small and cannot deliver upgraders in volumes needed)

30% capture of market over time is $3.8B CDN (2,040 BGX units) in potential revenues (not including service support contracts)

XBC announced the largest ever order for RNG units by any one supplier. It’s a leading indicator of what is to come.  They already announced the desire to increase capacity by up to 130 units and are looking for a US mfg site. That may take a year or 2 to reach that capacity but that is the goal if market demand is there.

Seems like the lack of follow through on yesterday’s share price movement have put doubts in people’s minds.  Kurt’s reserved tone (ie. wrt guidance) is a measured approach to avoid overpromising and under delivering.  Wasn’t he recently criticized for overpromising?  As Kurt noted in the BNN interview,  “ we are going to be on a good path.”  And that’s not moose pasture, but dairy pasture.
 
 

[Newtrader1982]

I agree the potential is huge so long as they are making these units at a healthy profit. Also just to point out the sector in general got smashed today so plug fcel and bldp were all down significantly today so that may have accounted for some of the reason we didn't see follow through in the upward trend there was just too much downward pressure in the sector. We did however open higher and

[Ciao]

Kurt's goal is to be the go to name for livestock farmers looking for RNG units. They will be able to command prices for their units. Jim and Mike will ensure that margins are healthy, and implement further improvements in supplier input costs / mfg efficiencies. Aren't you glad you didn't put in that 73K Monday sell order a few weeks ago to buy GRN / CMC? Isn't this the BGX

[Newtrader1982]

Go to name I like the sound of that. Absolutely glad I didn't sell although that thought never really entered my mind. I did however buy some grn near the recent low but never sold xebec to do that nor would I xebec is a far superior company to grn however I do believe grn has some upside from current levels. Long and strong on xbc

[kulewater]

To put a finer point on it.. each unit will likely carry a $60K service run-rate per year. This is recurring revenue. Not including actual operations and maintaince of the units. 2040 units x $60K = $122M per year in recurring revenue. Potential is there. 30% capture of market over time is $3.8B CDN (2,040 BGX units) in potential revenues (not including service support

[Ciao]

One more estimate refinement on the addressable market: My numbers were based on 1 BGX unit per farm, some will have more. Say on average 1.2 (6 units in every 5 farms), which gives a multiplier of 1.2 to the numbers.

[Magicmike67]

Just to keep things accurate.... A second PSA can be added to double production. During the Q1 call Kurt said the list price was $1.7M for such a unit. https://xebecinc.com/bgx-biostream/bgx-biostream-services#bgx-2x-psa Cool BGX Biostream video on this page.

[Ciao]

I believe within a single BGX unit capacity can be maxed out with a second PSA as you noted. BGX units can be installed in parallel. See video Who is BGX for? https://xebecinc.com/bgx-biostream/media/