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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Zargon Oil & Gas Ltd ZARFF

Zargon Oil & Gas Ltd is a producer of oil and gas. It is engaged in the exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas in Canada and the United States. The company works on three phases of oil reservoir exploitation which include Primary recovery, Waterflood recovery, and Tertiary recovery. Its portfolio includes Alberta plains north, Alberta plains south and Williston basin... see more

GREY:ZARFF - Post Discussion

Zargon Oil & Gas Ltd > Market capitalization 48.1 million
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Post by hawkowl1 on Dec 11, 2018 8:27pm

Market capitalization 48.1 million

Outstanding shares at 5 cents equals 1.55 million equity valuation.
Add Debenture debt and U.S debt converted to Canadian dollars. 
Capitalization of $48.2 million
Based on 3rd quarter production of 1953 boe trades at $24,679 per flowing barrel.

Now what an amazing turn around in pricing with WCS comex strip looking good into March 2019.
With U.S loan Zargon can do a bit of drilling . With improved prices some natural gas can be brought on line. 

I still say the best option is to convert debentures in early 2019. 3rd quarter really pricing was brutal and company is on the ropes financially. They had to pay a loan shark rate to keep the lights on and get some money to at least maintain production. ..let alone paying interest on debentures in March. 
So assuming this goes through.. what do you think shares will trade at?
A few suggested equity could collapse to 2 cents..some said 1 cent.
Do you seriously believe that happening? Get real... at 2 cents and 460 million shares market capitalization including U.S loan would be 13.9 million . Not going to happen.
at 10 cents a share  market capitalization would be $50.7 million. 

Where can shares trade at with production increasing to 2200 boe,no debentures but only $4.7 million in debt
Also a potential buyer who never would consider a deal with debentures just might come to table early 2019 if debentures dissapear. 
A no vote would create huge uncertainty with lawyers gaining and shareholders gambling on getting a few extra crumbs.Not worth it. Especially in this energy environment with Trudeau out to destroy Alberta and not even hiding it anymore. 

Ideally I would love a liquiquidity event with a sale in early March and be done with this.
If life were like Visa..

Comment by rad10 on Dec 12, 2018 8:08am
hawkoil Q4 production will be diminished significantly so going off Q3 is generous.  We will have to agree to disagree about the proposal.  Have you even received any voting materials from the company?  The first offer is unlikely to be the best for noteholders. They are not in a position to pay the interest in March and I would be more than happy to receive PIK in shares. Either ...more  
Comment by Method on Dec 12, 2018 8:48am
The PIK in shares for interest is good in theory but the actual procedure requires shares issued to the trustee who then sells them on the open market. In most likelihood the stock will go no bid in that scenario so if the trustee is unable to sell the shares then the company will file CCAA. The receiver will cost $3-5m which is more than the equity holders are getting under the proposed debt ...more  
Comment by rad10 on Dec 12, 2018 9:30am
Thanks method - I checked yesterday lunchtime must have missed it (EST).  Was thinking more of a second ballot for PIK direct to noteholders.......... cheap and cheerful. The delay in uploading the materials is a little unusual. I know they did not have a particularly strong consensus prior to the announcement in November. Seasons greetings and all the best. Thanks also to PE for his well ...more  
Comment by Method on Dec 12, 2018 10:43am
I still don’t think that would work rad as they have to issue more than 25% of the float to pay the PIK interest so they would need shareholder approval. 
Comment by hawkowl1 on Dec 12, 2018 9:07am
All the best to you also. Debentures are trading at bankruptcy levels..Rarely are they traded on an uptick. It is tax loss selling season but when you think a potential catalyst for getting rid of debenture debt is only 6 weeks away or so.. makes you wonder.   In theory under ideal circumstances they can trade 180% higher if this proposal is accepted. I have not received anything ...more  
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