The British Columbia government is expected to reveal this week how it will handle an inquiry into
Imperial Metals Inc.’s (
TSX: T.III,
Stock Forum) Mount Polley tailings spill, which last week sent millions of cubic metres of slurry and water flowing into the province’s scenic Cariboo region.
The B.C. government is also expected to say how it will deal with tailings ponds throughout the province.
“This incident represents a very significant tailings breach, one that is likely to have negative implications for all future mine permitting in the province, including the company’s future expansion at [the] Red Chris [project in northern B.C.],’’ Scotia Capital said in a research report.
“The cost of the clean-up (and possible fine) is likely to be very material to the company,’’ added Scotia, noting that possible proceeds from insurance remain unclear.
Imperial shares fell 6.3% to $9.86 on Tuesday, leaving the company with a market cap of $738.2 million, based on 75 million shares outstanding. The 52-week range is $18.63 and $9.06.
Meanwhile, as a result of the uncertainty, Scotia has reduced its 12-month target price for the stock to $13.50 from $17.
In a note to clients, Scotia has made the following adjustments to its estimates:
It assumes the operation will remain on care and maintenance until the end of 2014, to allow for the investigation and tailings dam repairs.
On a very preliminary basis, and until more information is provided, Scotia is assuming that costs related to the clean-up (and possible fine) could add up to $200 million.
Given the company’s already-high relative debt leverage, Scotia assumes that the $200 million in clean-up costs are funded by an equity issue of $10 a share. “We note that Imperial does not currently have excess cash on hand, or material free cash flow from other mines,’’ the investment firm said.
It also noted that Mount Polley represents 8% of the company’s net asset value.
“While we have not adjusted our timeline for the likely Red Chris Phase 11 expansion at this time, the timing of this project has now been placed in some doubt,’’ Scotia said.