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Do Markets Suffer from a “September Curse”?

Stockhouse Editorial
0 Comments| September 6, 2019

Stocks may have fallen hard in August, but data indicates September could be even worse.

A chief investment strategist with CFRA said in an interview published Friday that September, the worst month for stocks, is the only month since World War II to post a decline more frequently than an advance. The S&P 500 saw its second monthly loss of the year in August and likely won’t recoup those losses this month.

Its a statistical anomaly known as “the September effect” where the S&P has fallen since World War II more often than it ha gained (55% of the time) and has lost around 1% on average since 1928.

While it isn’t a case of the month being bad for trading by any means, the month of September has also seen the Dow Jones Industrial Average post an average decline of 0.8%, the Nasdaq has fallen an average of 0.5%

However, it is noted that also since World War II, the S&P hasn’t finished a pre-election year lower. In the past 15 times that it has finished lower in August, it also ended higher by December.

What is the best month for the markets? That changes year to year and investors have a lot of personal ideas on which month was best for them. Markets often have strong returns around the turn of the year and October.


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