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Would Europe be Sufficient to Overcome Russia Gas Shutoff?

Stockhouse Editorial
2 Comments| February 7, 2022

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A report released on Monday stated that if the disruption to Russian gas deliveries spread beyond flows through Ukraine to include all Russian pipeline exports to Europe, LNG imports alone would not be able to meet shortfall and additional supply levers would be required.

The report, titled Putting Europe’s Security of Gas Supply to the Test by the IHS Markit (NYSE: INFO, Forum) global gas service, highlights the reduced role of Ukrainian gas transit in Europe’s gas supply. The report says Russian gas flows through Ukraine fell to historical lows in January—50 million cubic meters per day (Mmcm/d), less than half of levels from a year ago. While flows through the Ukraine have swung back up earlier this month, they remain at just half the levels they were between 2015 to 2020.

IHS’ chief strategist, global gas, Michael Stoppard pointed out that Europe is already experiencing a ‘quasi-curtailment’ of Russia gas flows.

“The result is a European gas import picture that is starkly different from a year ago. One where LNG imports have ramped up to fill the gap.”

The report noted that LNG imports to Europe increased considerably last month, supplying higher volumes (34% of total supply) than Russian pipeline supply, which fell to 17% of supply. LNG imports from the United States rose to a new record of 245 Mmcm/d, accounting for the largest share of LNG by far. Average total LNG imports in January 2022 were 490 MMcm/d, with the upward trend in LNG imports continuing into February. LNG imports for the first three days of February 2022 have averaged 605 MMcm/d, with February 3rd reaching 710 MMcm/d.

What if, in an extreme scenario where all Russian pipe flows were cut off? Stoppard says the tightness of global LNG supply and limited spare European LNG regasification capacity means that other supply levers would be needed to close the gap.

“Extra coal and nuclear power generation capacity—either in the form of mothballed capacity being brought back online, resorting to strategic reserves or delayed plant closures—along with additional drawdowns of gas from storage would all be required.”


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Comments

that is the whole point of this. Been going on since 2009 and Syria. America will save the day with all the fracked gas and yet again people will die for america gas interests.
(1257)
February 9, 2022

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