Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) reports fiscal
fourth-quarter earnings after the closing bell today. Since it held its product release event in September, where it announced the
iPhone 8 and the iPhone X, the company has been sandwiched between the new smartphones’ release dates. The iPhone 8 was released on
September 22 and the iPhone X is slated for release tomorrow.
In a recent interview with Mashable, AAPL’s Senior Vice President of Hardware Engineering Dan Riccio indicated they had
originally planned to launch the iPhone X sometime in 2018, but they worked to get them ready to launch in 2017. That resulted in
the launch of multiple phones within a short period of time from each other, with prices starting at $699 for the iPhone 8 and
starting at $999 for the iPhone X.
Due to the timing of the iPhone 8 launch, this quarter’s results will only include about a week of those sales. Wall Street
consensus projects iPhone unit sales to increase 1% year-over-year to 46 million overall for the fiscal fourth quarter. For next
quarter’s results, which will include sales from the new iPhone X, Wall Street consensus is expecting 84 million iPhone sales, up
from 78.29 million in the same quarter last year.
Amid multiple reports of supply constraints for the new iPhone X due to production issues with certain features, several
analysts have recently slashed their forecasts for iPhone X shipments in the upcoming quarter. As a result of sales expectations
for the new iPhone X combined with reports of production issues, many analysts have indicated they’re less focused on this
quarter’s results, and more interested in seeing what AAPL’s guidance for the fiscal first quarter is going to be—Wall Street
consensus is currently projecting revenue to increase 9% year-over-year to $85.16 billion.
Beyond the iPhones, the company's iPad and its Services business, which is comprised of Apple Music, iCloud, iTunes, among
others, have been a focus among analysts in recent quarters. In the fiscal third quarter, AAPL reported revenue in its Services
segment increased 22% year-over-year to $7.27 billion. AAPL launched new iPad models earlier in the year, and reported that iPad
unit sales increased 15% year-over-year, generating $4.97 billion in revenue.
Another area analysts have focused on is the company’s cash balance. When AAPL last reported results, CFO Luca Maestri said the
company had $261.5 billion in cash and marketable securities, with $246 billion of that held outside the U.S. As a result of that
overseas cash balance, CFRA analysts said “we would view AAPL as among the biggest beneficiaries from the possibility of foreign
cash repatriation and/or lower tax rate.”
AAPL has used excess cash over the years to fund dividends and share buybacks. At the end of the last quarter, AAPL said it had
returned $222.9 billion out of its planned $300 billion capital return program, with $158.8 billion comprised of share
repurchases.
FIGURE 1: APPLE YTD PERFORMANCE. Apple (AAPL), which is charted above, hit a new all-time high in yesterday’s
session and is up 43.68% year-to-date, outpacing the S&P 500 (SPX) and the S&P Technology Select Sector Index (IXT). The
chart shows the year-to-date performance for the SPX as the purple line and the IXT as the teal line. Chart
source: thinkorswim® by
TD Ameritrade. Data source: Standard & Poor’s. Not a recommendation. For illustrative purposes only.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Apple Earnings and Options Trading Activity
For the fiscal fourth quarter, AAPL is expected to report adjusted earnings of $1.87 per share, up from $1.67 in the prior-year
quarter, on revenue of $51.17 billion, a 9.2% year-over-year increase, according to third-party consensus analyst estimates. Over
the past four quarters, AAPL has beat earnings estimates in three of them and met estimates in one.
The stock hit a new all-time high of $169.94 during yesterday’s session, but dropped quickly not too long after the market
opened. Shares are up 43.68% year-to-date after closing at $166.89 yesterday. Around the upcoming earnings release, options traders
have priced in about a 4.3% potential share price move in either direction, according to the Market Maker Move indicator on
the thinkorswim® platform.
In short-term trading at the November 3 expiration, calls have seen the most activity at the 160 and 170 strike prices, while
puts have been active at the 155 and 160 strikes. After the stock’s recent run, the implied volatility is on the high end and sits
at the 98th percentile as of this morning.
Note: Call options represent the right, but not the obligation, to buy the underlying security at a predetermined price over
a set period of time. Put options represent the right, but not the obligation to sell the underlying security at a predetermined
price over a set period of time.
Looking Ahead
After an uneventful Fed
meeting, the next major economic data coming out is this Friday, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the October
Employment Situation. Earnings season also continues, with reports from Snap Inc (NYSE: SNAP), MGM Resorts International (NYSE: MGM), Macy’s Inc (NYSE: M) and Walt Disney Co (NYSE: DIS) next week. If you have time, make sure to check out today’s market update to see
what else is happening.
© 2017 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.