Stocks finished the week on a high note as cautious optimism from earlier in the week ended with solid gains. Buying momentum
continued amid news of a deal to temporarily reopen the U.S. government, positive commentary from the administration on the
U.S.-China trade front, and a report that the Fed may keep more bonds in its portfolio than previously thought.
The administration and Congress struck a deal to end the partial government shutdown for three weeks. While the funding is only
temporary and the jury is still out on a final deal, lawmakers have taken a concrete step on the path to resolving the
issue.
The announcement confirmed hopes that had helped the market rise in morning trading and comes as companies have increasingly
been voicing worries about the shutdown costing them money, or having the potential to.
The market also gained support after Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told Reuters that the United States and China were
“making a lot of progress” on talks to end the ongoing trade war that has sparked worries about global economic growth and weighed
heavily on companies’ outlooks. His comments served as a counterpoint to less optimistic talk from Commerce Secretary Wilbur
Ross.
This was the fifth-straight week of gains for the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI), marking a solid start to the new
year.
Fed’s Bond Portfolio in Focus
Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reported that Fed officials are closer to ending the central bank’s bond portfolio
wind-down. It said officials are near a decision to maintain a bigger portfolio than they had thought when they started shrinking
those holdings two years ago.
While the Fed’s interest rate hike trajectory has been closely scrutinized, the unwinding of its balance sheet has also been a
form of hawkish monetary policy. So the market appears to be interpreting the news of the Fed potentially keeping a larger balance
sheet as bullish.
When the Fed lets more bonds onto the market, that tends to weigh on bond prices, which then causes yields to rise and increases
borrowing costs. The central bank bought the bonds as part of its quantitative easing program, designed to stimulate the economy by
pushing up bond prices and lowering yields, which kept borrowing costs lower.
Tech Rally Continues
Tech stocks performed well again on Friday, with the tech heavy Nasdaq (COMP) outperforming the two other main U.S. indices.
This capped a week of generally solid performance among tech companies after mostly strong economic reports set up the sector
nicely ahead of expected earnings reports next week from Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT). Facebook (NASDAQ: FB), now in the communication services sector but still a tech heavyweight, also
reports next week.
FB shares rose after Chairman and CEO Mark Zuckerberg defended the social media giant in an opinion piece in The Wall Street
Journal, saying the company doesn’t sell users’ data.
On Friday, Western Digital Corp's (NASDAQ: WDC) shares gained ground even though it reported adjusted earnings that missed
expectations, as the company told investors its revenue would improve later this year.
Earlier in the week, Xilinx, Inc. (NASDAQ: XLNX), Lam Research Corporation (NASDAQ: LRCX), and Texas Instruments Incorporated (NASDAQ: TXN) reported better-than-expected earnings, helping to boost the
PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index (SOX)
A notable exception to the solid performance from the tech sector this week was Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:
INTC) which reported quarterly revenue and a Q1 earnings
outlook that were short of analyst expectations.
Fed Meeting on Deck
The Fed is scheduled to conclude its two-day January meeting on Wednesday. Based on futures market activity, it looks like
investors and traders are expecting the central bank to stand pat on interest rates. That would jibe with recent commentary from
Fed officials that policy makers can be patient with any potential rate hikes because inflation is tame.
Still, it could be interesting to try to read the tea leaves in the language accompanying the Fed’s interest rate decision.
Investors may be looking for clues as to the Fed’s thinking on the impact of the ongoing trade war with China as well as what
monetary policy officials make of any lingering effects of the partial government shutdown and the potential for economic damage if
it resumes.
One effect that the shutdown has had is to delay economic data. That means the Fed – like company executives, investors,
analysts, and economists – has been flying partially blind when it comes to making data-dependent decisions.
Economic Data and Earnings
One big report that investors likely won’t be seeing on time is the government’s first estimate of Q4 gross domestic product.
The GDP reports are among the biggest economic data news events for investors and traders. But even with the temporary government
reopening they will likely have to wait given the length of the shutdown, how long employees have been furloughed, and how long it
takes to cobble together the GDP report from other data sets that are also incomplete because of the shutdown.
While the GDP report leaves a big hole in the economic data calendar, investors are scheduled to still have plenty to chew on.
Notable economic reports next week include indexes on consumer confidence and manufacturing as well as the monthly nonfarm payrolls
report. That last one is likely to be especially closely watched as the labor market is a key barometer for economic health, and
average hourly earnings form an important part of inflation expectations.
As if investors didn’t already have enough on their plate, there is a slate of major companies reporting quarterly results in
coming days. Those include Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT), which has been closely watched as a barometer for global growth potential amid
the continued trade dispute between China and the United States.
Boeing Co (NYSE: BA) results are also
on tap. The world’s largest aircraft manufacturer has warned that the government shutdown could end up hurting its business as well
as that of the overall airline industry. So it could be interesting to see whether company executives discuss this further,
especially in light of Friday’s news of a temporary reopening. Other major companies on tap next week include AT&T
Inc. (NYSE: T), Verizon Communications
Inc. (NYSE: VZ), Tesla
Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA), Amazon.com,
Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN), McDonald’s
Corp (NYSE: MCD), and Lockheed Martin
Corporation (NYSE: LMT).
Volatility eased as the week ended, with the VIX falling back below 18. It had been above 20 earlier in the week amid concerns
about global economic data and a possible U.S.-China impasse on trade. Still, with all these earnings and a Fed meeting coming up,
it seems unlikely that VIX would come down much further anytime soon.
The dollar also lost a bit of ground Friday, falling nearly 1% by the close to below 96. The dollar might have seen some
pressure from that Wall Street Journal article about the Fed’s potential balance sheet plans. A weaker dollar, if it continues,
could be another boost for U.S. stocks, as it can help make prices for U.S. goods more attractive abroad. The lower dollar also
might be giving crude a slight boost, though concerns about Venezuela also could have been at play (see Fig. 1).
Figure 1: U.S. crude futures jumped again amid ongoing political turmoil in Venezuela. The White House is
reportedly considering sanctions against the South American OPEC nation after it recognized an opposition leader as the legitimate
president and the incumbent broke ties with Washington. Data Source: CME Group Chart source: The thinkorswim® platform from TD
Ameritrade. For illustrative purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Reading Between the Lines: With a bevy of large companies reporting quarterly results in coming days, including
global economic bellwether Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT), now may be a good time for the market to glean some insight into two of the
highest profile issues of the day: the economic effects of the U.S.-China trade war and the partial U.S. government shutdown. The
trade dispute has been going on long enough that companies may talk about it in their earnings releases. But investors may also
want to pay attention to executive commentary during conference calls as they might provide what analysts call “color” on how the
issue is affecting their business or how they think it might affect it in the future. And those conference calls with analysts and
investors may also provide more clarity on executives’ thinking on whether the government shutdown has impacted their
businesses.
Grounded: Flying is a great way to catch the flu. Being stuck inside an aluminum tube with dozens of other
people for hours on end just increases the likelihood of germ transfer. On Friday, an increase in staff calling in sick led the
Federal Aviation Administration to reroute air traffic and increase the time between flights, the FAA said in a statement. FAA
employees have been working without pay during the partial government shutdown. Delta Air Lines, Inc. (NYSE:
DAL) tweeted that the company during the morning was
experiencing about 200 flight delays at LaGuardia Airport. For those waiting for a flight in New York and looking for a silver
lining, perhaps public pressure after feeling the widening effects of the government shutdown could help spark a quicker final
resolution to the funding impasse.
GDP Forecast Lowered: With the partial U.S. government shutdown keeping the Bureau of Economic Analysis
shuttered, it seems unlikely that investors will see one of the agency’s biggest reports in coming days. Originally scheduled for
release on Wednesday, the bureau’s first estimate of Q4 GDP appears likely to be delayed as the agency hasn’t been funded during
the shutdown. Investors and company leaders looking to fill the data vacuum may want to consider the latest 4Q GDP forecast from
the Atlanta Fed. Its freshest GDPNow model estimate, released Friday, forecasts a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.7%, down
from 2.8% on Jan. 18. The Atlanta Fed lowered the estimate after data from the National Association of Realtors showed a
larger-than-expected decline in existing home sales.
Information from TDA is not intended to be investment advice or construed as a recommendation or endorsement of any
particular investment or investment strategy, and is for illustrative purposes only. Be sure to understand all risks involved with
each strategy, including commission costs, before attempting to place any trade.
© 2019 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.