Global supply chains for critical minerals are facing a turning point. As China curbs its exports, Almonty Industries (TSX:AII) is stepping into the spotlight. Through strategic moves, the tungsten specialist is catapulting itself into a key position for Western industry. This year’s latest developments – from billion-dollar contracts to relocation to the US – point to enormous growth potential. For investors, this could become one of the most exciting commodity stories of the year.
Strategic course set: US as the new company headquarters
Looking at Almonty Industries (TSX:AII) 2025, there are many milestones to be found. But first things first: almost simultaneously with Donald Trump’s inauguration in Washington, the Company announced that it was relocating its headquarters from Canada to the US. This move gives Almonty crucial access to funding programs and positions it as a trusted partner for US defense projects. This is also essential for the US, given Chinese export restrictions on strategic metals.
A NASDAQ listing is planned for the future, which would significantly increase the Company’s visibility.
Billion-dollar deal with the aerospace industry
At the end of January, the Company announced a long-term supply agreement with the SeAH Group, a supplier to the aerospace industry, including SpaceX. Under the agreement, Almonty will supply 5,600 tons of molybdenum annually starting in 2026 at a guaranteed minimum price of USD 19 per pound. This deal alone will generate a fixed annual revenue of at least USD 234 million. The molybdenum deposit is located on the Sangdong property, which is the Company’s flagship project.
Sangdong about to take off
The Sangdong mine in South Korea is about to start production. One of the largest tungsten deposits outside China is scheduled to begin mining in the summer. Initial production is expected to be 2,300 tons per year, but production is expected to double to 4,600 tons within 12 months. When fully operational, it could cover up to 40% of non-Chinese global production. The mine has a life span of over 90 years, with estimated resources of 50 million tons and an average tungsten grade of 0.43%.
Solid operations despite accounting effects
The quarterly figures show robust fundamentals. Revenue rose by 1.3% to CAD 7.9 million, driven by stable contracts. The mining operating result climbed by 24.1% to CAD 0.75 million, supported by reliable production at the Panasqueira mine in Portugal. On closer inspection, the reported loss of CAD 34.6 million turns out to be purely an accounting effect. CAD 25.8 million of this amount is attributable to a change in the valuation of option liabilities caused by the sharp rise in the share price and has no impact on cash and cash equivalents of around CAD 17 million.
Military demand: Long-term sales guarantees
The next milestone followed in May. The exclusive purchase agreement with US defense specialist Tungsten Parts Wyoming (TPW) and Israeli processor Metal Tech provides for the delivery of at least 40 metric tons of tungsten oxide per month, exclusively for military applications. The contract combines a price floor with unlimited upside potential in rising markets. The agreement has been signed for three years and will become active with the first delivery.
5 reasons for Almonty Industries’ success source: almonty.com
Geopolitical networking: A door opener in Washington
In March, General Gustave F. Perna was appointed to the Board of Directors. He brings expertise in global logistics and supply chain management and strong connections to the US Army.
In May, Almonty was invited to join the Critical Minerals Forum (CMF), a platform initiated by the US research agency DARPA, highlighting Almonty’s systemic importance. CEO Lewis Black emphasizes: “CMF also facilitates the collaboration necessary for increased and reliable production of critical minerals by bringing together leading supply chain companies, investors, and government institutions.”
On June 2, Almonty strengthened its Board of Directors with Alan Estevez, former Under Secretary of Commerce for Industry and Security. He is one of the architects of national security strategies and defense logistics. CEO Lewis Black commented: “Alan’s first-hand experience in procurement, contracting, and supply chain management will be particularly relevant as we expand our position as a key allied supplier of tungsten.”
All of these steps fit perfectly with the US expansion.
Europe as a stable base
The European sites remain key pillars and have helped to create a knowledge advantage in tungsten mining. Panasqueira in Portugal has been delivering stable cash flows for over a century, while Los Santos (Spain) and Valtreixal offer low-cost expansion options. This geographical diversification makes Almonty a flexible player in a fragmented market currently dominated by China.
Significant upside potential
Analysts recognize the puzzle of operational strength and geopolitical positioning. Several research houses see significant value potential, driven by the start of production in Sangdong, high-margin processing activities following the construction of the tungsten oxide plant, and the growing demand for “conflict-free” raw materials. The CMF membership and the TPW agreement are transforming Almonty from a mine operator into a strategic partner of Western industrial policy. Sphene Capital has set a price target of CAD 5.40, while GBC Research is more conservative at CAD 4.20 per share. The share is currently trading at just CAD 2.60.
Chart of Almonty Industries source: refinitiv.com
Almonty Industries has transformed in 2025 from a niche player into an indispensable global player. The combination of a start-up premium mine, long-term high-price contracts and integration into US security architectures creates a unique investment profile. While China tightens market supply, Almonty is meeting the growing demand for tungsten and molybdenum, both essential for high-tech applications and defense. For investors who believe in the reshaping of global commodity flows, this is a rare opportunity. The course has been set. Now, the value creation phase begins.
Conflict of interest
Pursuant to §85 of the German Securities Trading Act (WpHG), we point out that Apaton Finance GmbH as well as partners, authors or employees of Apaton Finance GmbH (hereinafter referred to as “Relevant Persons”) currently hold or hold shares or other financial instruments of the aforementioned companies and speculate on their price developments. In this respect, they intend to sell or acquire shares or other financial instruments of the companies (hereinafter each referred to as a “Transaction”). Transactions may thereby influence the respective price of the shares or other financial instruments of the Company.
In this respect, there is a concrete conflict of interest in the reporting on the companies.
In addition, Apaton Finance GmbH is active in the context of the preparation and publication of the reporting in paid contractual relationships.
For this reason, there is also a concrete conflict of interest.
The above information on existing conflicts of interest applies to all types and forms of publication used by Apaton Finance GmbH for publications on companies.
Risk notice
Apaton Finance GmbH offers editors, agencies and companies the opportunity to publish commentaries, interviews, summaries, news and the like on news.financial. These contents are exclusively for the information of the readers and do not represent any call to action or recommendations, neither explicitly nor implicitly they are to be understood as an assurance of possible price developments. The contents do not replace individual expert investment advice and do not constitute an offer to sell the discussed share(s) or other financial instruments, nor an invitation to buy or sell such.
The content is expressly not a financial analysis, but a journalistic or advertising text. Readers or users who make investment decisions or carry out transactions on the basis of the information provided here do so entirely at their own risk. No contractual relationship is established between Apaton Finance GmbH and its readers or the users of its offers, as our information only refers to the company and not to the investment decision of the reader or user.
The acquisition of financial instruments involves high risks, which can lead to the total loss of the invested capital. The information published by Apaton Finance GmbH and its authors is based on careful research. Nevertheless, no liability is assumed for financial losses or a content-related guarantee for the topicality, correctness, appropriateness and completeness of the content provided here. Please also note our Terms of use.