DURHAM, N.C. -- Shares of antiviral drug maker BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: BCRX, Stock Forum) rose 9% by midday Tuesday as investors speculated the company would unveil new orders for the influenza treatment peramivir.
BioCryst's intravenous H1N1 treatment peramivir is for seriously ill patients in this, the most damaging influenza season in the Northern Hemisphere in at least three decades.
BioCryst, based in Alabama and with laboratories in North Carolina, declined to return a telephone call and e-mails seeking comment on Tuesday. At least two publications, one in India and the other in Israel, reported BioCryst’s swine flu treatment was receiving orders in those nations.
BioCryst’s peramivir is a protein inhibitor that rushes plasma to sites of infection in patients suffering respiratory failure and other complications from the Type A H1N1 virus.
“There is a theory that they won't reveal orders until they are ready to ship in a week or so,” said Michael Murphy of subscriber service New World Investor in Colorado.
Mr. Murphy, along with media group Stockhouse Publishing and its Ticker Trax™ subscription service, have been tracking developments at the small biopharmaceuticals company since November 2008.
Domino effect possible for drug orders
BioCryst last week received the first of what could be as many as four peramivir orders worth $67 million or so from the U.S. Health & Human Services Department. (Please see:Stockhouse exclusive article.)
Charles Duncan, a PhD analyst at JMP Securities in New York City, told Stockhouse last week that he expects BioCryst to unveil additional orders for the antiviral compound as H1N1 sweeps across large parts of the globe.
In his most recent report, Mr. Duncan said the company, now valued at $430 million, exceeded expectations on peramivir pricing in its first large order. JMP placed a $15 price target on the shares.
The U.S. government order, he said. “is for 10,000 courses and values peramivir at $22.5 million, a price of $2,250 per course, (which is) 
above our assumption of $1,850 per course but is clearly supported by our diligence on the pharma-economic value that peramivir may create for intensive care unit patients.”
The first U.S. government order, and following ones, Mr. Duncan said, “could potentially initiate a domino effect with governments in multiple countries being potential stockpile buyers, although we see supply as limited. In our opinion, this is transformational news for BioCryst, and we continue to recommend BCRX shares based on additional stockpiling orders for peramivir in the U.S. and (outside the) U.S.”
BioCryst has a partnership with Japan pharmaceuticals company Shionogi & Co. Peramivir is awaiting regulatory approval in Japan. The company’s experimental compound is approved for emergency use in the United States.
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals’ antiviral treatment peramivir for 2009 H1N1 influenza could generate $1 billion a year in profit margin, or as much as $28 a share. The profit numbers derive from long-standing Ticker Trax™ coverage of the publicly-traded company.
The progression of the H1N1 virus appears to be accelerating in its transmission rate and in its attack on respiratory systems. Tens of thousands of people in North America, Mexico, the United Kingdom and elsewhere are entering intensive care for treatment.
Mr. Murphy at New World Investor says overseas orders from hard-hit nations, led by the Ukraine, Mexico, the United Kingdom, Israel and India, are imminent.
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BioCryst CEO Jon Stonehouse is a long-standing pharmaceuticals sales executive who took the top spot at the drug discovery company in 2007.
Mr. Stonehouse was the executive who took Prilosec, the little purple pill for gastrointestinal disorders, to one of the world’s top selling drugs. He has held salaried positions at several large pharmaceuticals companies, including Merck and AstraZeneca. His academic background is microbiology from the University of Minnesota.
Natural Resources: Ghana
In our latest Ticker Trax, we outline developments for a Ghana Prospect, which is searching for gold in the Kibi Gold Belt and on Tuesday signed a mining letter of intent with a Canadian company. The contractor will mine alluvial gold on one of the Ghana company’s concessions for a period of five years, if the contract is signed.
In a separate development, royalty firm Franco-Nevada Corp. (TSX: T.FNV, Stock Forum) said it agreed to acquire a 2% net smelter returns royalty interest on a Ghanaian gold property.
The $58-million transaction allows Franco-Nevada to purchase the royalty from Moydow Mines International Inc. (TSX: T.MOY, Stock Forum), holder of a stake in Newmont Mining’s (NYSE: NEM, Stock Forum) Ahafo gold property in Ghana. Ticker Trax scoured Ghana in September in on-site visits of two prominent gold prospectors.
On the conference front: We are looking at several companies that placed well among participants in Richard Radez’s 37th annual Gold Show just outside Chicago this past weekend. One of them, Houston Lake Mining (TSX: V.HLM, Stock Forum), is pursuing eight separate properties and concessions in various parts of Ontario.
The $9 million market-value company is prospecting for platinum at Tib Lake near Thunder Bay, gold at West Cedar Tree and rare earths at Pakeagama Lake, among other locations.
Ticker Trax™ later this week will be profiling Mercenary GeologistMickey Fulp as he scours a Baja, Mexico, gold prospect.
(Please see:Thom Calandra’s Stockhouse articles. BioCryst Pharma is one of 11 Planetary Prospects of Ticker Trax, a subscription service. Thom Calandra owns 63,000 shares of BioCryst and has no intention at this time of selling any below the price of $24.)
Ticker Trax™
Please see tickertrax.comto learn more about this wealth service and its 11 Planetary Prospects. Also, please see its breakout feature examinations of two Ghana gold prospectors. Subscribers, please click here for password-secure Ticker Trax.
HOLDINGS:Thom’s stock holdings are listed for all Stockhouse members on www.Stockhouse.com under the “portfolio setting” for user TCALANDRA. It is public and free to view. He also owns recently minted gold and silver coins and shares of two private companies. Thom does not do private placements or accept payment in return for coverage. But you can buy him a cold beer in Cabo or a warm ale in London. Thom participates in select company-sponsored and company-paid tours of mining sites.
THOM CALANDRA of Ticker Traxhelps his audience find value in a quagmire of investment choices. Thom co-founded CBS MarketWatch andMarketWatch.com. As the voice of Thom Calandra's StockWatch and The Calandra Report, Thom pegged $300-ounce gold as a long-term hold.
Ticker Trax™ is published by Stockgroup Media Inc. Ticker Trax is an information service for subscribers and neither Stockhouse nor Thom Calandra is a broker or an investment advisor. None of the information contained therein constitutes a recommendation by Mr. Calandra or Stockhouse/Stockgroup Media that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. Ticker Trax does not purport to tell or suggest the investment securities subscribers or readers should buy or sell for themselves. Subscribers and readers of Ticker Trax should conduct their own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decisions. Ticker Trax will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by a reader’s reliance on information obtained in the reports. Subscribers and readers are solely responsible for their own investment decisions. Opinions expressed in Ticker Trax are based on sources believed to be reliable and are written in good faith, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. All information contained in Ticker Trax should be independently verified. The editor and publisher are not responsible for errors or omissions or responsible for keeping information up to date or for correcting any past information. Ticker Trax does not receive compensation of any kind from any companies that may be mentioned in the report. Any opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Owners, employees and writers may hold positions in the securities that are discussed in Ticker Trax. PLEASE DO NOT EMAIL THOM SEEKING PERSONALIZED INVESTMENT ADVICE, WHICH HE CANNOT PROVIDE. Copyright 2009 all rights reserved.