More on Natcore: (NXT)

This article was originally sent to TickerTrax subscribers on Feb 24, 2011.

Bolero Introduced to Subscribers Dec 2nd at $0.49

Dropping Coverage: February 24th at $0.39

I) Bolero Resources (TSX: V.BRU, Stock Forum $0.39)
https://www.boleroresources.com/

After several phones calls I was finally able to get through to someone looking after IR for BoleroResources. I needed a proper update on their drill programs for the gold and Rare Earth (REE) properties as we were previously informed hey would drill in Q1. That is not the case.

I was told they would not be drilling "anything” until early summer. These delays mean selling pressure on the stock. To make the situation worse, their large REE land package in British Columbia surrounds earlier discoveries by two companies.

One of those companies is Canadian International Minerals (TSX: V.CIN, Stock Forum $0.28) which released REE drill results on February 17th. While the results were half decent, they did not live up to the hype and promotion that pushed that stock up 400% in a month.

With stocks like Bolero a person must decide whether they want to wait them out (and hold for exposure to the gold and REE sectors) or take another look when they get closer to drilling. I have chosen to re-visit at a later date.

II) Natcore Technology (TSX: V.NXT, Stock Forum; $1.13)
https://www.natcoresolar.com/

Featured to Ticker Trax subscribers: Feb 3, 2011, at 84 cents

Problems have spread through the middle east since Egypt protests began but it wasn't until Libya became involved (and shot protestors), that the oil traders took real notice. Libya is the 8th largest producer in OPEC with North Africa and the Middle East responsible for 36 percent of global oil output and 61 percent of proven reserves. It's no wonder the U.S. is worried about unrest in the region.

To complicate matters Iran has sent two warships down the Suez Canal. Israel is worried about Iran's nuclear capability, but the warships in their mind are outright provocations. Protests in Iran are the least of Obama's concerns. If Israel continues to feel threatened by Iran, they will settle things their traditional way. It is widely believed that Israel has been able to slow down Iran's nuclear capability with the Stuxnet virus (a large scale computer attack on their power plant). If and when this no longer does the trick, we will see how Israel deals with the situation - and the warships.

Should Israel and Iran lock horns in the region - at the same time as these political protests are causing disruptions, we would see oil back at 2008 levels.

OIL RALLIES CAN FUEL SOLAR

Oil stocks are the most obvious play here. However, stealth plays crept up in 2008. Those are the alternative energy companies. When the world panics over oil prices, it doesn't take long for the alternatives to gain popularity. And one of those is solar.

The last big rally in solar occurred when oil and gas prices went through the roof. A good benchmark was First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR, Stock Forum, $1.65) which traded at $300 mid 2008 when crude oil prices hit $141 (June 27, 2008). The stock has been range bound from Q4/08 until now.

Natcore Follow-up

In my last update I discussed the potential alliance with Kodak (NYSE: EK, Stock Forum). Tuesday February 22nd there were important meetings in Rochester, N.Y., that shed further insight into the growth potential with Natcore.

I have discussed the involvement of U.S. Congresswoman Slaughter, who carries significant clout in Washington. She is trying to attract big business to her region and has been courting Natcore along with Obama and the Department of Energy. On Tuesday Natcore execs met with Slaughter and nine public and private sector officials. They toured the Eastman facility which is a world class manufacturing center with its own power plant and extensive infrastructure.

Kodak for obvious reasons has seen its photography business drop dramatically. They need diversification and one belief is that their world class expertise in manufacturing film can be applied to Natcore's technology to produce one of the world's most effective (and low cost) solar solutions.

I have been discussing this technology in updates, but the strong endorsement from Slaughter is what we needed for third party validation. If Kodak comes onboard (at any point in the future), that level of credibility and world class potential goes through the roof.

It would mean (in theory) that Natcore has what the world has been waiting for in solar energy production. Low cost and high efficiency. The big game changer (on a global scale) comes (IF) they can produce a tandem cell (discussed on the Natcore website). Right now it is far more than theory but still a ways from being commercially viable. Natcore's current technology solution is very viable BUT if they can produce a "Tandem" cell, this will be a huge home run.

A hint of that potential is discussed in the media below. Natcore and Congresswoman Slaughter believe the market would be so large, they could create 2000 to 4000 manufacturing jobs - in particular if they can partner with Kodak.

POTENTIAL VALUATION

To get to the stage they're at, Natcore has done an exceptional job managing share structure. With the recent $3 million financing at $0.75, the company has 30 million shares outstanding.

Until they sign larger contracts or go into full scale production, it is extremely difficult to try and assign a value to companies like this. Current market cap is close to $30 million and maybe that is more than fair. If they sign on with someone like Kodak, that valuation then jumps - but to where we wouldn't know. These high growth (and high risk) companies often carry pie-in-the-sky valuations.

The only thing that I think is a fair assumption is the following:

1) If they were to partner with Kodak, it validates the technology and the potential so fair value may be $50 to $100 million.

2) If they were to develop a commercially viable Tandem Solar Cell, the picture changes dramatically. A company that may revolutionize the solar industry on a global scale (and be first to market), is likely sitting on a valuation worth several hundred million dollars or more. Obviously if they manage their share structure properly, that could mean adouble digit share price within 1 to 2 years.

For now I think we should target a double from hear at some point in 2011 and if they hit targets, we can just re-value as we go along.

TUESDAY MEDIA EXPOSURE

The facility tour in Rochester generated good media exposure for Natcore - I just wish they would have mentioned they were a publicly traded company. I have provided excerpts below. This first one has a video that is very interesting - it is from a Rochester ABC affiliate.

https://www.13wham.com/news/local/story/kodak-eastman-business-park-solar-natcore/FZbevhR8zE2E4cQ-W1GPyA.cspx

__________________________________

Tuesday, 22 Feb 2011, 3:47 PM EST

ROCHESTER, N.Y. (WIVB) - A New Jersey company is projecting it can create up to 4,000 manufacturing jobs in Rochester by partnering with Kodak.

Congresswoman Louise Slaughter brought officials from Natcore Technology to Rochester Tuesday to tour the Kodak pilot coating facility. Natcore is looking to develop and sell solar energy cells.

If a federal grant is approved Natcore president Chuck Provini says work could start within a year. Natcore claims their technology could reduce the cost of solar energy to consumers by 60-percent.

__________________________________

APP.COM - Feb 21st

Will New Jersey be the home of the new $3M Natcore Technology Lab?
Company raises $3 million; also eyes New York state, Texas

Natcore Technology Inc., a Red Bank company that is developing technology to reduce the cost of solar energy, has raised $3 million for a new laboratory. Question is, where should it go?

Should it go to upstate New York, where Kodak has equipment and plenty of room to offer? What about Texas, a low-cost option where Rice University researchers have aided its development? Or New Jersey, the home of its corporate office?

"We'd love to keep it here because it's easier for me to supervise," Chuck Provini, Natcore's president and chief executive officer, said. "But we haven't gotten a whole lot of traction here."

Disclosure: I own 25,000 Natcore and 15,000 Bolero. – Danny Deadlock

THOM CALANDRA: Thanks Danny. You are an asset to this service. You know, I am just back from West Africa … and what a mind-boggle that trip was – my fourth or fifth to the region. Check it out: See our West Africa coverage. Thanks folks.

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