So, if you were a "macro" guy/gal, you were likely tempted to come into 2014 short bonds, because, hey, everybody knows yields are going up.
The Fed is tapering, the economy is improving, and this trade is a no-brainer, right?
But for those of you keeping score at home, the Ultrashort 20+ Year Treasury ETF (NYSE: TBT) is down -17.2 percent year-to-date as of Tuesday's close.
Here are the top 10 reasons why the macro crowd has gotten it wrong on the bond market in 2014:
1. Blame it on the Weather - Anyone living east of the Mississippi knows that this past winter was brutal. And the bottom line is people don't spend a lot when they are holed up at home trying to stay warm. So... the U.S. economy hit a speed bump/soft patch during the wretched winter months.
2. China's #GrowthSlowing - If you've been paying attention at all, you know that China's economic growth rate is slowing (GDP growth has fallen from about eight percent to 7.4 percent). The key is this is affecting global growth, which causes investors to stick with conservative stuff like ...
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