Join today and have your say! It’s FREE!

Become a member today, It's free!

We will not release or resell your information to third parties without your permission.
Please Try Again
{{ error }}
By providing my email, I consent to receiving investment related electronic messages from Stockhouse.

or

Sign In

Please Try Again
{{ error }}
Password Hint : {{passwordHint}}
Forgot Password?

or

Please Try Again {{ error }}

Send my password

SUCCESS
An email was sent with password retrieval instructions. Please go to the link in the email message to retrieve your password.

Become a member today, It's free!

We will not release or resell your information to third parties without your permission.

THE BIG D

Dr. Kal Kotecha Dr. Kal Kotecha, Junior Gold Report
0 Comments| May 20, 2020

{{labelSign}}  Favorites
{{errorMessage}}

According to Investopedia (even though the National Bureau of Economics has redefined it), “a recession is a macroeconomic term that refers to a significant decline in general economic activity in a designated region. It had been typically recognized as two consecutive quarters of economic decline, as reflected by GDP in conjunction with monthly indicators such as a rise in unemployment.” https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/recession.asp

According to Investopedia, an economic depression is defined as: “a severe and prolonged downturn in economic activity. In economics, a depression is commonly defined as an extreme recession that lasts three or more years or which leads to a decline in real gross domestic product (GDP) of at least 10 percent. in a given year. Depressions are relatively less frequent than milder recessions, and tend to be accompanied by high unemployment and low inflation.” https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp

There have been many opinions on whether the economy will experience a recession or a depression. Consensus and pundits seem to believe it will either be one or the other. For me, it doesn’t matter how one defines the economic downturn, it matters on the severity. I have believed for quite some time that the economy in 2020 and beyond will be headed into turbulent waters for quite some time regardless of the stimulus package. High unemployment including bankruptcies should lead to more travesty. Below are some quotes:

“investors start to suspect that the Federal Reserve’s support, as well as $3 trillion in Treasury stimulus, may not be enough to compensate for soaring unemployment, a wave of bankruptcies and no end in sight to the pandemic. Managers including Bill Miller, Paul Singer and Paul Tudor Jones have all voiced doubts about markets or the economy.” https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/wall-street-heavyweights-are-sounding-alarm-about-stock-prices/ar-BB142XFL

Tepper, who runs the US$13-billion Appaloosa hedge fund, told CNBC on Wednesday that valuations are “nuts” for some individual stocks on the Nasdaq. He also highlighted banks and airlines as difficult areas in which to invest right now. https://business.financialpost.com/investing/stocks-are-overvalued-wall-street-heavyweights-sound-the-alarm-about-markets

Druckenmiller (legendary investor) said Tuesday at the Economic Club of New York that his analysis showed liquidity that drove markets higher will soon shrink as Treasury borrowing crowds out the private economy and even overwhelms Fed purchases. The 66-year-old said he’s never seen a time when the risk of owning stocks so outweighed the potential gain. https://business.financialpost.com/investing/stocks-are-overvalued-wall-street-heavyweights-sound-the-alarm-about-markets

Is this the end of the downturn as stock markets are reversing up? Ask any economist and you’ll get differing opinions. My opinion is that this is a short rally. With the possibility of the virus resurfacing full blown again along with bankruptcies and high sustained unemployment looming, we could be in for a rude awakening by the end of this year or early next year.

Another question begs, when the economy starts picking up and is sustained, who will really be paying for this huge debt? Bailout programs that aid citizens must be paid at some point, or should and will they?. The simple answer is that the young population will carry the long term future burden but also remember, with increasing immigration, the immigrants will be also paying for services that the current citizens are benefiting from and that they did not.

Roller coasters are fun but not this one!

Happy Investing.

Dr. Kal Kotecha

TO JOIN OUR FREE NEWSLETTER, PLEASE VISIT WWW.JUNIORGOLDREPORT.COM

Disclaimer

© 2010 Junior Gold Report

Junior Gold Report Newsletter and website: Junior Gold Report Newsletter and website is published as a copyright publication of Junior Gold Report JGR). No Guarantee as to Content:Although JGR attempts to research thoroughly and present information based on sources we believe to be reliable, there are no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein (newsletter and website). Any statements expressed are subject to change without notice. It may contain errors and you should not make any investment decisions based on what you have read on here. JGR, its associates, authors, and affiliates are not responsible for errors or omissions. By accessing the site, receiving this email and reading this article, you accept and agree to be bound by and comply with the terms and conditions as set out herein. If you do not accept and agree to the terms you should not use the Junior Gold Report site or accept this email/article.Consideration for Services: JGR, it’s editor, affiliates, associates, partners, family members, or contractors may have an interest or position in the featured companies, as well as sponsored companies which compensate JGR as such our opinions are biased. We may hold options in and trade these stocks of the companies we profile and as such our opinions are biased. JGR and its’ owner and affiliates/associates may buy/sell and trade the featured companies from time to time. JGR has been paid by the company featured. Thus, multiple conflicts of interest exist. Therefore, information provided here within should not be construed as a financial analysis but rather as an advertisement. Conduct your own due diligence: The author’s views and opinions regarding the companies featured in report(s) are his/her own views and are based on information that he/she has researched independently and has received, which the author assumes to be reliable. You should never base any buying/selling/trading decisions off of our emails, newsletter, website, videos or any of our published materials. JGR aims to provide information and often stock ideas but are by no means recommendations.The ideas and companies featured are highly speculative and you could lose your entire investment – consult a licensed financial advisor if you are considering investing in any of the featured companies. Subscribers/readers are encouraged to conduct their own research and due diligence. The companies mentioned are high risk and considered penny stocks that contain a high risk of volatility, therefore consult your investment advisor and do your own due diligence before purchasing. Never base any investment decision on information contained from our emails, newsletter, website, videos or any of our published materials. No Offer to Sell Securities: JGR is not a registered broker dealer, investment advisor, financial analyst, stock picker, investment banker or other investment professional. JGR is intended for informational, educational and research purposes only. It is not to be considered as investment advice. No statement or expression of any opinions contained in this report constitutes an offer to buy or sell the shares of the companies mentioned herein. Links: JGR may contain links to related websites for stock quotes, charts, etc. JGR is not responsible for the content of or the privacy practices of these sites. Information contained herein was extracted from public filings, profiled company websites, and other publicly available sources deemed reliable. Information in this report was taken on or before writing and dissemination and may not be updated. Do you own due diligence as information and events can and do change. Published reports may reference company websites or link to company websites and we disclaim and responsibility for the content and accuracy of any such information or website. Release of Liability: By reading the newsletter/website and/or watching videos by JGR, and/or reading this article you agree to hold JGR, its associates, sponsors, affiliates, and partners harmless and to completely release them from any and all liabilities due to any and all losses, damages, or injuries (financial or otherwise) that may be incurred.

Forward Looking Statements
Except for statements of historical fact, certain information contained herein constitutes forward-looking statements. Forward looking statements are usually identified by the use of certain terminology, including "will", "believes", "may", "expects", "should", "seeks", "anticipates", "has potential to", or "intends' or by discussions of strategy, forward looking numbers or intentions. Such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results or achievements to be materially different from any future results or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements that are not historical facts, and include but are not limited to, estimates and their underlying assumptions; statements regarding plans, objectives and expectations with respect to the effectiveness of the Company's business model; future operations, products and services; the impact of regulatory initiatives on the Company's operations; the size of and opportunities related to the market for the Company's products; general industry and macroeconomic growth rates; expectations related to possible joint and/or strategic ventures and statements regarding future performance. Junior Gold Report does not take responsibility for the accuracy of forward looking statements and advises the reader to perform their own due diligence on forward looking numbers or statements. Some statements may be based on personal opinions. Perform your own due diligence.


Tags:

{{labelSign}}  Favorites
{{errorMessage}}

Comments

No comments yet. Be first to comment!

Leave a Comment

You must be logged in to be able to post a comment.