Today we’re digging into a metal that doesn’t get the headlines but drives the backbone of modern warfare manufacturing and tech infrastructure. Tungsten is dense, unbreakable and brutally essential. And without it, missiles don’t fly straight, drills don’t cut, and that phone you hold so diligently onto won’t function. Now the problem, China controls the bulk of global supply, and in fact, it currently controls 90%, and the West is only now waking up to the risk and the consequences.
At the forefront of that is one company, Almonty Industries. It is one of the few players actually doing something about it. They’re pushing their Sangdong Project in South Korea towards production in the next two months, building what could be the most significant non-Chinese tungsten source on the map. And with a fresh strategic alliance in the US defense sector, and a just locked in move to domesticate into the US, Almonty isn’t positioning, it’s advancing.
We recently caught up with Christopher Ecclestone, Strategist at Hallgarten + Company, to break down the stakes, the supply chain war, and what investors keep missing. A voice who’s never shy about calling it like it is.
LYNDSAY:Let’s start with critical metals. What’s the real cost of falling behind in securing supply and who really stands to lose the most?
CHRISTOPHER: You know, the West has become enormously reliant in recent decades upon the attitude of just in time as an industrial strategy and also that you didn’t have to do anything to ensure your supply chains. The attitude was that if China can produce it cheaper than anyone else, a mineral that is, we’ll buy from them, and it will always be available. And that has been a total fallacy and not only from the point of view that the Chinese have then got you by the throat, so to speak, and can potentially cut off supply. But in fact, China has been over exploiting some of these metals for decades now, as we’ve seen rare earths and antimony things. So, they’ve actually been destroying their own capabilities in the space. And the West has not wanted to make the investments required to refresh supplies.
And so, particularly in tungsten, we saw after the last price peak, which wasn’t actually all that high early last decade that a lot of tungsten production shut down because the prices were very poor. And they stayed at a very low level really until 2021, 2022 when they picked up a little bit, but they didn’t pick up a lot. And it certainly wasn’t an environment in which people could make a lot of money or even any money in the West. And so hardly anyone was doing anything in the tungsten space. There were very few explorers and many of the explorers that there had been when the last price peak was around gave up and went away because what was the use of finding a metal that in fact you couldn’t really bring to production because the price you’d get for production was so poor.
LYNDSAY: Right, absolutely. Let’s shift over to geopolitical risk for a second here then. How are investors still treating tungsten like a side bet with the given and clearly national security asset that it’s become?
CHRISTOPHER: For a long time, the metal was sold as being a metal that was used in machine tools. It was used in drill bits, it was used in other sorts of domestic tools, saws, drills, knives, cutters, that type of thing. But in fact, tungsten has been a military metal since before the Second World War. And in fact, it was extremely critical in the Second World War. It was one of the reasons why countries like Spain and Portugal could remain neutral in the Second World War because they were the main suppliers and they had a business of selling both to the Axis powers, Germany and Italy, and also selling to the Western powers. So they were making money on both sides during the Second World War. But the crucial factor with tungsten is its hardness.
So, the hardness works two ways in the military sense. One is you have shells and bullets and ballistics that are tungsten coated, and so they are then armor piercing. So, you can fire a shell that is made out of tungsten at a tank, and it will go right through the tank and achieve its goal. But then if it’s also used for armor, if you use it on armored personnel, carriers or tanks, then they become resistant to ammunition from your enemy. So you need it both to protect yourself in a defensive mode and in an offensive mode. And you know, big Western militaries used to have reserves, strategic reserves of this, and they got very slack. You know, particularly after 1989, there was much talk about the peace dividend.
There was no more cold war. It was the end of history. It was the end of war. There’d be no more big wars. And that was a big mistake because then they let their reserves run down. They let the sources that fed those reserves run down or close. You know, no mine is forever. And many tungsten mines just sort of like faded away and then were not replaced. And so, the military has left themselves in a very vulnerable position that if they didn’t have a big stockpile, then if there is a war, they won’t be prepared and they won’t have access to material.
LYNDSAY:With that then, is there a reserve right now only in China, or is there a reserve that Almonty now with their nearing production mine, is that one of the production goals? To create enough now to have that reserve away from the China supply chain?
CHRISTOPHER: Yes, absolutely. You can have two types of reserves. One is a reserve that you buy the metal in the market, and you put it in a big warehouse somewhere. You know, the US Strategic Reserve of oil is very famous. The US used to have reserves of all sorts of strategic metals just in case there was a war. And really after 1989, as I mentioned, after the Vietnam War they thought, oh, we don’t need these anymore. So they either didn’t add to them or they ran them down and they thought, oh, we can use this money for other stuff. And so they did. And so that left those vulnerable. And the other type of reserve you can have is a reserve that’s in the ground, but when it’s in the ground, it has to be in a friendly nation because it’s useless to say we know that we have access to a reserve of tungsten in the DRC, for instance.
And then think that if there’s a war in 10 years or 20 years from now, you will still have access to that because these countries change their allegiances and you just don’t have access. So, you really need to have a reserve of ore if it’s going to be in the ground, that is in the ground of a friendly nation. And the US has lots of friends, but you know, sometimes who’s a friend changes, but in the case of Korea in particular, Korea is a long-term ally of the US. And so that is the big advantage for Almonty here because they will be producing from a mine that was formally a mine, it was a mine for many decades and then shut down because of poor pricing and other factors. And it’s that mine now that Almonty’s going again.
So, this demand for the product of Almonty out of Korea from not only Korean industry, this Korean industry of course is massive. It’s a big industrial power. Japan, which is right nearby and of course in the US and the rest of the West. So, Almonty’s customers potentially for Sangdong offtake sort of go well around the block in a line of Western and non-Chinese really industrial nations that need and want a source of tungsten that is not subject to Chinese whims.
LYNDSAY:Oh, that’s the thing. Absolutely. They’ve definitely aligned themselves where they need to be, for sure.
CHRISTOPHER: Yes.
LYNDSAY:Let’s talk a little bit further about that Sangdong mine. They are nearing production. How much disruption should the incumbents brace for once this project goes live?
CHRISTOPHER: Well, it’s very interesting you mention that because if we went back three years ago, we would’ve said, oh, China’s happily supplying tungsten to the West, and all is beautiful in the world. Now tungsten of course, is what is called dual use by the Chinese. Basically, meaning that it has industrial usages, machine tools, but it also has military usages. And the Chinese have decided to put a clamp down on the supply of dual use material particularly to the US because that was in a sort of response to some dual use bans that the US imposed on things like semiconductors and other industrial and technological products.
So, it’s a bit of a tit for tat action going on there, but what it’s done is it’s really focused mines in the West upon who is your friend, who is not your friend, who can produce something that if the bullets start to fly, you can actually call them up and say we need some tungsten, can you supply it? Certainly, if the bullets started flying between China and Taiwan, you wouldn’t be calling Beijing and saying, can you give us some tungsten to defend Taiwan? So obviously everyone’s starting to work out now which side they’re on, and Almonty’s on the right side.
LYNDSAY:It’s all about shifting dynamics. So, let’s lean into that one a little bit more. The American situation signals, as you mentioned, Almonty is no longer chasing contracts. It’s inserting itself into national security conversations. So how does this actually shift the company’s influence in a market where government ties are becoming just as valuable as production?
CHRISTOPHER: Oh, yes, that’s the critical factor here. You know, Almonty was a bit of a strange beast for a long time. It was a company listed on the Canadian stock exchanges with a Canadian registration of the corporation. But its mines were in Spain and then it added a mine in Portugal. Now it’s adding the mine in Korea. But that didn’t necessarily put it in close contact with the Pentagon and the US Department of Defense and its needs. So, what they’ve done in recent times at Almonty, unfortunately for Canada, but Canada doesn’t provide Almonty with much of a market. Almonty was selling their products internationally to German and Swedish companies, and now they’ve redomiciled themselves from Canada to the US, which makes them a US corporation.
And turns what was the largest Canadian tungsten producer that was not producing in Canada into the largest US tungsten producer, which is nevertheless not producing in the US either. But once you’re on shore in the US and we’ve seen this major sort of shift in recent times away from offshoring back to onshoring. Having both your corporate office there and a close relationship with Washington, which is developing because Almonty have tied up with firm in Washington that will give them a direct sort of entree to the powers that make the purchasing decisions in Washington.
Almonty is now seen not only as being in an allied nation Canada which a member of NATO, but it’s actually becoming a US corporation, which puts it squarely in the tick, tick, tick checklist of the DOD, the Department of Defense, the Defense Logistics Agency, which buys for the DOD and the Pentagon, which basically is the brains of the US military industrial complex.
LYNDSAY:Those are great partnerships to have and great insights that you’re giving us here. Now that the US domestication has been cleared, what does this mean for its access to federal backing and defense driven capital? You touched on it a little bit, but let’s explore that a little bit more if we could.
CHRISTOPHER: Well, it’s a great backstop for Almonty because prices have improved in the tungsten sector, so that’s a big positive for them. But if you want to expand and get even bigger then you need access to funds. And over the years, with the price of tungsten not being great and profitability being low in the sector Almonty had a long and hard road despite its own conviction about the future of tungsten to finance its projects.
Fortunately though, Sangdong is fully financed and it’s really off to the races, but it’s always better to have a guaranteed buyer, and particularly one of the best guaranteed buyers who always will pay the invoice when you send it to them is the US military.
And so that’s a great position to be in.
But beyond Sangdong, Almonty has its former mine in Spain, which it would like to reopen in a different format to the way that it was operating before.
And it also has another project in Spain, a big, identified tungsten resource, which it could also reopen to service not only demand from the European militaries, but from the US military.
And to put it in perspective many of the predictions of tungsten industry growth in recent years have been 1% per year, 2% per year. And last year, defense spending around the world grew by 9.4%. So that is a quantum leap from what was viewed as being sort of a low growth industry.
Defense is now like one of the highest growth industries out there, and it’s one that’s being prioritized as well, and one that has governments behind it. And as we know, governments, if they need to, as we saw in the pandemic, can find money and are dedicated to a course that they regard as crucial. And definitely defense is a national number one issue in most countries around the world now. And it wasn’t a few years ago.
LYNDSAY:So that’s where the line gets drawn right there. Critical metals like tungsten aren’t just resources anymore. They’re leverage, they’re essential. They are here to stay. So the players who control supply chains will control the outcome and the clock ticking on who gets there first. Yes, so Almonty’s not just moving, they’re moving with intent and the market needs them.
CHRISTOPHER: Yes, and they’ve moved ahead of the pack because many of the other tungsten wannabes, because the price was so bad for so long are not advanced at all. And when they’re on the verge opening another big mine, because it’s already got a mine in Portugal. One that’s functioning at the moment.
But most of the other tungsten wannabes have nothing more than some 43-101’s saying that they might have something. Almonty’s the real deal.
If you would like to learn more about Hallgarten + Company, their website is hallgartenco.com and for more information on Almonty, their website is almonty.com, as well you can find them on the TSX under the ticker symbol AII.
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