The BioCryst Situation (BCRX)
- IFC in Colombia; Great Panther's Recompensa; CMJ Update; XTGR Prediction
It is all here:
- BioCryst Pharmaceuticals: This is The Bonnie Situation in the film “Pulp Fiction.” Messy. Requires rapid cleansing. BioCryst (NASDAQ: BCRX, Stock Forum) shares are a Planetary Prospect. They have been hammered this month of June. We believe there are two broad categories for investments that decline rapidly below (subjective) fair value: they are fundamentally flawed or they are stock-market victims. At present, we see nothing that indicates BioCryst has blood on its tracks. At its southern USA drug discovery labs, certainly. Here is what is hurting the NASDAQ-traded stock: April and May saw fresh investors pile into BioCryst because of trial results and other positive events for a gout compound and a leukemia compound. Some of the new money was margin money enticed by the presence of large investor Joseph L. Harrosh, whom we interviewed. The shares rose 30 percent in a short period of time. The stock market got killed in its own Bonnie Situation. The new money fled. The stock lost all it had gained and much more. Now we have a $270 million stock with $50 million to $60 million of cash. We have the world wondering whether influenza season in both hemispheres will point to continued dominance of H1N1 Type A virus. We have cash flow from BioCryst operations at its highest point since fourth-quarter 2008. We here at home now own almost 80,000 shares. The five or so analysts who follow BioCryst have no idea what the company will bring in for second-quarter 2010. The consensus is negative-22 cents a share. If the stock falls below $6 again, I will be among the first to say I have been purchasing shares a lot higher than that. Finally, Mr. Harrosh of California is the type of frost-seeking investor who almost surely must consider adding to his five percent-plus stake in BioCryst.
Technicals: I am consulting several tried-and-true chart technicians, including a subscriber or two of this service. Among our 12 Planetary Prospects, those with the “best,” or most promising, stock charts are Endeavour Financial (TSX: T.EDV, Stock Forum), Endeavour Silver (AMEX: EXK, Stock Forum) and (TSX: T.EDR, Stock Forum), Xtra-Gold Resources (XTGR), Great Basin Gold (TSX: T.GBG, Stock Forum) and (AMEX: GBG, Stock Forum), Central Fund of Canada (AMEX: CEF, Stock Forum) and (TSX: T.CEF.A, Stock Forum) and Bellhaven Copper & Gold (TSX: V.BHV, Stock Forum). Great Basin Gold appears poised to become a $1 billion (market cap) gold company in the next nine months. Xtra-Gold shares are on the cusp of a momentous advance, likely ahead of what will be a summer filing for the Ghana prospector’s listing on a commodity-friendly stock exchange outside the USA.
On the sick side: Shares of Colombian Mines (TSX: V.CMJ, Stock Forum) are ailing after a spectacular Planetary Prospect run-up. The company has been stingy with news and other revelations about its 300,000 hectares of properties, concessions and coveted properties in Colombia. I am concerned about the chart. (Please see chart courtesy of Stockhouse.) I am not concerned about the company. This is from Bob Carrington, president of CMJ: “Yes. We are just now getting assays for Yarumalito samples sent to SGS before … while you were in Colombia with us last time (April 2010). What's that, a 2 ½-month turnaround? We are back to Colombia tomorrow (Friday). IFC (World Bank’s International Financing Corp. lending and investment arm) is sending a delegation to Colombia to look at direct investments in some of the Colombian companies, including Greystar (TSX: T.GSL, Stock Forum), Ventana (TSX: T.VEN, Stock Forum) and our Colombian Mines. Don't know for sure who else is on the list but I suspect Medoro Resources (TSX: V.MRS, Stock Forum) would be there too.” Longtime geologist Bob Carrington says he will be looking at some of the company’s Rio Negro properties to see new areas of mineralization. We here at Ticker Trax expect another press release from Bob and Gloria Carrington and CEO Nate Tewalt in about one week’s time – almost surely about the latest samples and drill results from the prime Yarumalito property in Antioquia, Colombia.
Timberline Resources (TSX: V.TLR, Stock Forum) and (TSX: V.TBR, Stock Forum): I am fresh back from Timberline’s Butte Highlands gold project in Montana. I am enthused about the project and intend to examine its internal estimate of some 750,000 ounces of Butte Highlands gold for Ticker Trax and the larger Stockhouse audience. We met all of the company’s principals, including new CEO Randal Hardy, VP of Exploration Paul Dircksen, director and longtime mining engineer Ron Guill, senior geologist Art Glover, accounting officer Craig Crowell and the folks who make it happen on the ground – including project superintendent Lou Myers, who is an employee of Ron Guill’s SMD, Small Mine Development LLC of Boise, Idaho. (That is Lou, with moustache, in the photo.) Timberline is a drilling services company that hopes to produce gold from Butte, Montana in the next 12 to 18 months or sooner. In the wake of its purchase of a Nevada prospector, Staccato Gold Resources (TBR in Canada) and that company’s Lookout Mountain properties, Timberline shares now trade in Canada (TBR) and in New York (TLR).
Great Panther Silver: The Mexico silver producer (TSX: T.GPR, Stock Forum) and (OTO: GPRLF, Stock Forum) recently extended a vein at its Topia Mine. I asked CEO Bob Archer about the Recompensa vein at that property in light of how thin it is (and others in the area). Mr. Archer told me, “Recompensa is just one of 12 veins we are mining at Topia and is the narrowest of the bunch. These widths are typical of that particular vein but we have been mining it for more than a year using the resue method. This (resuing shrinkage stopping) is more expensive and time consuming (but not problematic) than regular cut and fill but the grades make it worthwhile. The upper part of the vein contains gold in the range of five grams to 15 grams per metric tonne with high silver-lead-zinc as well. (Our) recent holes show us that gold grades are considerably higher in the lower parts of the vein but with lower silver-lead-zinc grades.” I worked up a rough guess at what the vein could yield in terms of gold and other minerals. Current drilling extends the vein by about 50 meters to 60 meters “to depth” with strike length of about 500 meters. Best guess (in my book and not Mr. Archer’s): some 18,000 tonnes of ore with an average gold grade of 15 grams per tonne. This comes to about 10,000 ounces of gold (plus silver, lead and zinc). Current drilling might have extended Topia’s mine life by five or more years – it looks like at a glance here.
For more on all of the Planetary Prospects, please visit our Ticker Trax Library.
Ticker Trax™ is in place – and thriving – because its fiscal loyalty is to subscribers who are looking for radically cheap investments. Our service, started in November 2008, researches a select group of Planetary Prospects with legitimate shots at rising 1,000 percent or more in the span of two years, maybe less and maybe more.
Planetary Prospects
There are now 12 of them. Please visit www.tickertrax.com and search our landing page for details on the start of coverage for individual Planetary Prospects and the entry price.
- Central Fund of Canada (AMEX: CEF, Stock Forum) and (TSX: T.CEF.A, Stock Forum) – Gold and silver repository. Its premiums, being a closed-end fund, are rising. Own this one as a money market proxy for real gold and silver – metal that actually might be delivered to investors if ever they want to cash in their paper stakes. One day, when investors decide they absolutely must own gold and silver, Central Fund shares will see their premium over net asset value double … or more.
- BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: BCRX, Stock Forum) –Influenza and leukemia drugs. Gout, too. Biomedical appears to be back in vogue as an investment. We here at home are holding these shares – 75,000 and counting – as “The Return of H1N1” influenza virus plays at hemispheres, nations and regions near all of us. There is no risk of a dilutive financing. There is a risk of Type A H1N1 remaining the dominant seasonal flu virus for several years. The company has a new 5.5 percent investor: Joseph L. Harrosh. (Please view: Stockhouse exclusive article.)
- Endeavour Silver (AMEX: EXK, Stock Forum) and (TSX: T.EDR, Stock Forum) – Silver (and gold) in Mexico. I expect Endeavour Silver to purchase a publicly-traded silver (or silver-gold open-pit) company this year. Probably in Mexico … but Endeavour’s principals tell me they will not rule out other parts of North America. First-quarter metrics, including costs, cash flow (a net profit for the three months vs. a year-ago loss), silver and gold output, are improved markedly. Brad Cooke and his team realize they have to show their audience its exploration activities are vibrant enough to hurtle the small Guanajuato and Durango company above five million ounces of silver equivalent per year. Mr. Cooke and his team say they are doing exploration drilling at the San Juanico property in Parral, Chihuahua, among other points. Endeavour Silver’s project outline is on its Internet site: Please see the list.
- Endeavour Financial (TSX: T.EDV, Stock Forum) – No relation to Endeavour Silver. This is Neil Woodyer’s profitable Canadian-traded merchant bank that is making a big bet on West Africa. … in the form of Crew Gold (TSX: T.CRU, Stock Forum) and a 43 percent stake and Etruscan Resources (TSX: T.EET, Stock Forum) and a 55 percent stake. Endeavour just made nice with Severstal, the Russia entity with a large stake in Crew Gold. Endeavour Financial logged $213 million of net profit in its most recent quarter. Endeavour Financial does business with natural resources and energy companies. The shares, even with a three-month steady climb, trade at a discount to the value of securities owned by Endeavour Financial. It owns about $500 million of gold investments and other merchant bank investments, giving the company a book value that is about twice the current share price.
- Xtra-Gold Resources (OTO: XTGR, Stock Forum) –This West Africa gold prospector might follow in the footsteps of successful Keegan Resources (TSX: T.KGN, Stock Forum) … and Perseus Mining (TSX: T.PRU, Stock Forum) … and Red Back Mining (TSX: T.RBI, Stock Forum). Xtra-Gold shares get little attention on the USA over-the-counter bulletin board and deserve a listing on a commodities-comfortable exchange. Let’s hope James Longshore and his team, including new geologist-consultant Robert J. Casaceli and new CEO Paul Zyla, keep moving in the right direction. Mr. Longshore tells us he now owns three million shares of his own company, up from two million shares. Fresh drilling will start by July. (Pleasesee the Libraryfor coverage stretching back to autumn 2009.)
- Great Basin Gold (TSX: T.GBG, Stock Forum) – This is Ferdi Dippenaar’s South Africa and Nevada miner. Real gold at Burnstone and Hollister mines … and prospecting at Esmeralda in Nevada. Great Basin says it has “excellent operational performance at Hollister in Nevada and improved efficiencies at the Esmeralda Mill facility in Nevada.” Ditto for South Africa’s Burnstone Mine. I have been to all of the company’s working properties. GBG is on track to become the next $1 billion market cap gold company. Current cap is almost $600 million. (Please see our password-protected libraryfor coverage.)
- Candente Copper (TSX: T.DNT, Stock Forum) – Joanne Freeze’s Candente has copper in Peru at Cañariaco. The almost eight-billion-pound copper project is starting to get the attention of manufacturers and bankers. Yet Candente Copper’s shares sell for a value of only a penny a pound for its in-situ copper. Candente Copper, formerly Candente Resource, is among the cheapest propositions (based on ore in the ground) in this list, along with Avanti Mining. The Candente companies’ properties in Peru also include poly-metallic prospects that might some day package into a third, separately-traded company. (Please see libraryfor coverage.)
- Candente Gold (TSX: T.CDG, Stock Forum) – This separate company’s shares were distributed to predecessor Candente Resource’s shareholders in January 2010. We issued a full report on Candente Gold’s Peru prospects in April. Now, we’re examining El Oro, an entire district and artisanal mine workings in Mexico. I am hoping to see fresh and theoretical calculations on existing and freshly discovered vein targets from Ms. Freeze. (Please see password-protected libraryfor coverage of El Oro in Mexico.)
- Great Panther Silver (TSX: T.GPR, Stock Forum) – Silver in Mexico. Robert Archer is the CEO. The Panther just extended one of its veins, called Recompensa, at the Topia property in Durango, Mexico. The company is on the prowl for assets so that it can notch 20 percent yearly gains in output. GPR’s rising silver grades and low stock valuation compared with other Mexico silver producers make the company’s shares look like a bargain. Quarterly performance at the Canadian company produced a net profit. Great Panther’s silver-equivalent output at Guanajuato and in Mexico’s Durango state is benefiting from improved efficiencies and richer gold harvests. The company’s metals’ production includes byproducts and runs about half that of Guanajuato neighbor Endeavour Silver. Great Panther must mine richer ore in greater quantities to fulfill its promise as a Planetary Prospect.
- Avanti Mining (TSX: V.AVT, Stock Forum) – Cheap and aspiring molybdenum mine at Kitsault in British Columbia. Avanti just hired Bob Jacko of Thompson Creek Metals to manage project development at the mine. When Avanti’s Craig J. Nelsen and A J Ali see this through, Kitsault will be producing about 25 million pounds of the stainless-steel additive each year – for 15 years. That is 215 million metric tons of ore grading 0.085 percent of moly. That works for a world where steel-based moly demand is expected to expand six percent or so this year and next. I just saw in the latest proxy that Mr. Nelsen, the Avanti CEO living in Colorado, owns 10 million shares of the company. Canada’s Bob Cross of B2Gold is an Avanti director and owns more than five million shares. Avanti Mining at a market worth of less than $20 million is the cheapest proposition on this list. Avanti must show it can line up plenty of cash or lending pacts for a project whose total cost probably will run more than $640 million. Mr. Ali, Avanti CFO, is trying to notch one or two off-take agreements for the mine’s easily-reached moly. The takers likely will hail from Asia, where steel mills require a steady and reliable supply of the element molybdenum. I have been to Kitsault. Moly is an additive in all types of stainless steel. I have been purchasing more shares this month at the price of 12.5 cents. (Please see the password-protected libraryfor coverage.)
- Colombian Mines Corp. (TSX: V.CMJ, Stock Forum) – CMJ has one of the thickest property books in Colombia for such a tiny company: some 300,000 hectares. Bob and Gloria Carrington and Nate Tewalt’s company has reported drill results from its Yarumalito project in Colombia. The numbers were mediocre. The company recently optioned its Anori gold and copper prospect to Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY, Stock Forum) and (TSX: T.YRI, Stock Forum). CMJ gets $50,000 from Yamana right from the get-go. CMJ’s Robert Carrington says he and CEO Nate Tewalt of Washington State are considering a joint venture or sale for its Venecia holding in Antioquia. (Please see the password-protected libraryfor coverage.)
- Bellhaven Copper & Gold (TSX: V.BHV, Stock Forum) – Our newest member. Panama and Colombia. We here at home now own 1.4 million shares Honolulu fund manager and doctor of geology Paul Zweng is a large investor and just-named interim CEO. Dr. Zweng’s success rate with epithermal gold deposits and with copper prospects such as Peru’s Antares Minerals (TSX: V.ANM, Stock Forum) is among the best I have seen in eight years. Bellhaven now owns the Las Minas concession in Antioquia, close by CMJ’s Venecia property and Sunward’s (TSX: V.SWD, Stock Forum) Titiribi. We at home own shares of this and all Planetary Prospects. (Please see the Libraryfor coverage.)
In Colombia, our speculative target is Antioquia Gold (TSX: V.AGD, Stock Forum). We here at home own it. We also own (and have researched and visited since 2008) Medoro Resources (TSX: V.MRS, Stock Forum). John Hicks’ Medoro Resources is on track to purchase the historic Frontino Mine in Antioquia for as much as $200 million. Medoro’s annual report and recent quarter have just been published and show that its completed purchase of El Marmato in Antioquia has measured and indicated ounces of 7.5 million ounces and inferred ounces of 2.2 million. Fresh drill results are just out from El Marmato this week.
We here at Ticker Trax™do not address queries about a company, an investment or a speculative theme that is written as part of Ticker Trax or our Stockhouse reports but is not a Planetary Prospect. We stand firmly behind our Planetary Prospects and back them with our own patient money here at home. With the exception of Central Fund of Canada, which I view as a gold and silver money market for cash purposes, I have not sold and do not sell in and out of our Planetary Prospects. Ticker Trax™ and Stockhouse audiences receive notice, in some cases weeks, when we here at home decide to purchase or sell any security named in these reports.
As for reporting on other companies, ideas are there for all to view and consider. Please do not expect Ticker Trax to support these subjects with research, on-site visits and so on. Feel free to contact these companies, be they Nevada prospectors, Canada miners or Peru, Colombia and South Africa companies … and so on.
For an entire explanation of our strategies, research methods and disclosure procedures regarding all aspects of Ticker Trax and our Stockhouse reports, please visit our readily available Stockhouse articles – especially this one: Core Box Revealed. Companies whose site tours I attend for research purposes pay part or all of my airfare and hotel. Stockhouse and I also pay when necessary.
Ticker Trax™
Please visit Stockhouse for a selection of our Ticker Trax research and our password-secure Library for subscribers.
(All photos by Thom Calandra. Thom and his family own shares of each of the 12 Planetary Prospects. Thom’s personal holdings are available for all to see on Stockhouse, the Canada publishing company. Subscribers are informed well in advance of any shift in research regarding Planetary Prospects and any purchase or sales decisions. Subscribers always come first.)
Ticker Trax™Please see tickertrax.com to learn more about this wealth service and its Planetary Prospects. For an index of free Thom Calandra articles, please click here. For an entire explanation of our strategies, research methods and disclosure procedures regarding all aspects of Ticker Trax and our Stockhouse reports, please visit our readily available Stockhouse articles. Please see this one in particular: Core Box Revealed. For the password-protected Ticker Traxlibrary, please see: www.tickertrax.com/Login.aspx.
HOLDINGS: Thom’s holdings are listed for Stockhouse members at www.Stockhouse.com under the “portfolio setting” for user TCALANDRA. It is public and free to view. He and his family own recently minted gold and silver coins and shares of about 30 public and two private companies. As with each of the Planetary Prospects, Thom Calandra owns Colombian Mines, Xtra-Gold Resources, Great Basin Gold, Endeavour Silver, BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Bellhaven Copper & Gold and each of the other Planetary Prospects researched in this and other reports.
THOM CALANDRA of Ticker Trax helps his audience find value in a quagmire of investment choices. Thom co-founded CBS MarketWatch and MarketWatch.com. As the voice of Thom Calandra's StockWatch and The Calandra Report, Thom pegged $300-ounce gold as a long-term hold in 1999 and in 2000. He has been covering life-sciences and natural resources since 1988.
For a Ticker Trax Library starting in November 2008, please see our Stockhouse Password-Secure Archives.
NOTICE: For those who might not be paying Ticker Trax subscribers: Si vous n'êtes pas le destinataire prévu ou un agent responsable de la livraison de ce courriel, tout copie, impression, reproduction ou autre utilisation d'une partie de ce courriel est strictement interdit.(Thom and Stockhouse also produce free reports. Please visit Stockhouse.)
Ticker Trax™ is published by Stockhouse Publishing Ltd. Ticker Trax is an information service for subscribers and neither Stockhouse nor Thom Calandra is a broker or an investment advisor. None of the information contained therein constitutes a recommendation by Mr. Calandra or Stockhouse that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. Ticker Trax does not purport to tell or suggest the investment securities subscribers or readers should buy or sell for themselves. Subscribers and readers of Ticker Trax should conduct their own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decisions. Ticker Trax will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by a reader’s reliance on information obtained in the reports. Subscribers and readers are solely responsible for their own investment decisions. Opinions expressed in Ticker Trax are based on sources believed to be reliable and are written in good faith, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. All information contained in Ticker Trax should be independently verified. The editor and publisher are not responsible for errors or omissions or responsible for keeping information up to date or for correcting any past information. Ticker Trax does not receive compensation of any kind from any companies that may be mentioned in the report. Any opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Owners, employees and writers may hold positions in the securities that are discussed in Ticker Trax. PLEASE DO NOT EMAIL THOM SEEKING PERSONALIZED INVESTMENT ADVICE, WHICH HE CANNOT PROVIDE. Copyright 2010 all rights reserved.