TSX:AX.PR.E - Post by User
Post by
Torontojayon Mar 08, 2024 12:27pm
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Post# 35922982
Sahm’s rule
Sahm’s rule According to Sahm's rule, researched by Claudia Sahm, the US is very close to entering a recession or confirming it has started. There has never been a point in history where the US didn't have a recession after the 3 month average unemployment rate was 50 bps above the minimum of the 3 month averages from the previous 12 month.
The unemployment rate troughed at 3.4% in April with the minimum 3 month average at 3.5%. If the next 2 months produces an average unemployment rate of 4.05% or higher then it confirms the recession according to Sahm's rule. We are currently at 3.9% and the Sahm rule indicator at 27 bps.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME