Jim Rogers is one of the most respected investors in the world. I had a chance to chat with him the other morning to get more details about some of his recent comments in the media.
Damien Hoffman: Jim, you were in the media a few times last week and I want to follow up on a few points you made. You said on Bloomberg that Nouriel Roubini did not do his homework regarding the asset bubbles about which he is now warning. Can you explain what homework he did not do?
Jim: All of it. How can you talk about a bubble when assets such as silver are 70% below their all-time high? Same for coffee, sugar, cotton, natural gas, and many more. I have a problem talking about a bubble when assets are this depressed from their all-time highs.
A bubble is when assets are screaming to new highs everyday, everyone is talking about them, and everyone owns them. Right now, virtually no one owns commodities. So for Mr. Roubini to talk about a bubble in commodities defies comprehension. It proves he does not understand markets.
I am flabbergasted at Mr. Roubini’s comment about bubbles because there is not a single market in the world making all-time highs except Gold, US Government Bonds, Cocoa, and the Sri Lankan stock market. That’s hardly reason to call for a bubble. So, I am most perplexed about this alleged bubble which is out there.
If an asset rises 100% in one year, that’s a great year, but not necessarily a bubble. Look at oil. It’s up huge off the bottom but nowhere near its old highs. Look at Citigroup (C). The stock is up 3 or so times off the bottom.
Damien: … and I doubt long term shareholders feel like they are in a bubble.
Jim: Exactly. And since Mr. Roubini thought oil would stay below $40 a barrel for all of 2009, I would love for him to tell me and the rest of the world exactly where are all the oil supplies because the International Energy Agency (IEA) — which has the best global data set on energy supplies — has no idea where is the oil. Mr. Roubini should tell us where this price suppressing oil supply is hidden. All the oil possessing countries in the world have declining reserves. All the oil companies have declining reserves. So Mr. Roubini must know something the rest of us don’t.
Damien: On another note, Gold has been reaching new all-time highs, although not inflation adjusted. You said Gold may reach $2,000 an ounce over the next decade. Can you explain what variables will push Gold to $2,000?
Jim: First, I hope you will keep Mr. Roubini’s statement where he said Gold going to $2,000 an ounce by 2019 is “utter nonsense.” I think you’re going to get a chance to call him before 2019 to ask him what he thinks of Gold at $2,000 and why he thought it was “utter nonsense.”
Regarding variables, it’s very clear there is huge suspicion about paper money around the world. This suspicion is gathering steam. Governments are printing huge amounts of money. This has always led to higher prices. Maybe I am wrong and it’s different this time. But I doubt it.
Additionally, no new large gold mines have been opened in decades. Some of those mines are over 100-years old. They are all depleting. On the other hand, central banks have huge Gold reserves above ground — and they are less interested in selling than in the past.
If you adjust Gold for inflation and go back to its former all-time high in 1980, Gold should be over $2,000 an ounce right now if you want to say it’s reaching new inflation adjusted all-time highs. That does not mean Gold has to get back to a true all-time high. Nothing has to. However, I suspect that given all the money printing in the world, we will see much higher prices for hard assets.
Despite Gold’s potential, I think I will make more money in other commodities such as silver, cotton, or coffee — all of which are terribly depressed.
Damien: Speaking of other assets, as an outsider living abroad, what is your opinion on US Equities?
Jim: This is one of the few times in my life I have not had shorts anywhere in the world. I have also not had a lot of longs in the stock market because I’ve chosen longs in commodities and currencies. I have kept away from shorts because there is a gigantic amount of money being printed and it has to go somewhere. I thought some of it would end up in the stock market, and it has.
How much higher can the equity markets go? I don’t know. There are a lot of problems in the economy, but I don’t know when those problems will cause a downdraft in the stock market. All we’ve done is paper over the problem, so I expect we’ll have to deal with those issues in the future. Printing and spending money we don’t have simply prolongs the problems and makes them worse in the long run.
If the world economy improves, commodities will lead the way due to demand and shortages. If the world economy does not get better, commodities are still a great place to be because governments are printing so much money. And, if the world economy doesn’t get better, they will print even more money!
Damien: Jim, thank you for taking the time to share your outlook and opinions. I greatly appreciate it.
Jim: You are very welcome. Your site is very impressive. I look forward to staying in touch.
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da Rock uses dese charts ta keep tabs ..........onna subjects o' interest ta moi.
Ma interests incl:
A. Gold/Silver Trends
B. Commodities & Metals
C. Miners......wit possible big gains
Note: sum o' dese charts ta do wit ratios; report yestaday's numbers; da stock ones are up ta date!
*********** comments 'ere issa only fo' infotainment reasons *************
************************* Not financial advice ***********************
======================================================
A. Gold/Silver Trends
Platinum Price - 48 hrs:
Updated when ya sees dis
![Live 24 hours platinum chart [Kitco Inc.]](http://www.kitco.com/images/live/plati.gif)
Kitco Gold – 48 hrs:
Updated when ya sees dis
Kitco Silver - 48 hours
Updated when ya sees dis
Gold Price Daily
Gold - Weekly
* Da Rock notes a assymetrical pennant...indicatin' a Massive Breakout ta topside comin'
Gold Price "xxooxx"
* everything's okay inna dis XOX chart........
GLD ETF
- usin' dis ta checks fo' Volume
HUI - Gold Bugs Index:
- Popular 15 unhedged Gold Miners
* HUI retreats from high...
* Gotta look back ta da Gold weekly ta understand dis........normal consolidation
* Big Gold issa startin' ta lag........monies movin's ta Juniors.......
Gold Stock ETF:
- 34 Gold/Silver Miners
*.....da Rock's waitin's fo' money moves ta Juniors........
*Have ya seens do's breakouts by sum juniors???
HUI ta Gold Ratio
- Gold Stocks leads Gold inna Bull Run
GDM Bullish Percent Indicator:
- Trend indicator fo Gold Miners
* RSI back downs ta 30....buy, buy, buy
* Note dat dis indicator since Jan 2009 has traced a risin' pennant formation.....Bullish fo' breakout ta da up side....Soon
Gold Corp - Big Gold:
- Unhedged anna inna Cannuckland
* Dis issa ma own proprietary indicator...........ma thoughts are
dis guy issa fully priced...........Glamourous but expensive........
..........Monies movin's ta Mids anna Juniors...........
Gold vs S&P 500:
- to be in Gold or Stocks
* direction up found;
.....regular mkts supply cash fo' minin' juniors.....
S&P 500 Index
- 500 Large Cap Universe inna USA
* SPX hassa neva looked back........recovery issa on track.......
* Recovery issa good fo' Gold.............
* da Rock believes da floor issa right 'ere!
S&P500 Showin's da bottoming Head & Shoulders
* Da Rock's read o' dis issa............right shoulder issa higher dan left shoulder.....
* Bullish fo' recovery
New York % Bullish
- da sentiment onna da Big Board
TSX Composite
- Da Canuckland index 
* Main pattern issa up..............
* TSX over 50dma
==========================================================B. Commodities & Metals
CDNX Venture
- Proxy fo' ma Junior Golds/Metals
* Like everyting else........up ....anna...up
* Winter season should be good ta Venturites........
CDNX versus Gold Ratio
- Da valuation o' Juniors...needs ta move up ta 3
CDNX versus Gold Ratio
'Nother secret ....seems like National Enquirer....
........Juniors gots long ways ta go up!!!
* tanks ta Hommelberg....
http://seekingalpha.com/article/171533-gold-juniors-poised-for-historic-bull-run
Continuous Commodities Index
- 17 key commodities
* Commodities issa da major theme fo' next 3 years
* looks like da Nat Gas rocket........goin' ballistics
Silver ETF:
- Silver follows Gold; wit bigger gains 
Silver Price Daily:
* Pullback means mo' opps.....
* dis issa gonna blow ..........soon!!!
Silver Price Monthly:
* da Rock sees Silver outperformance comin's
$Silver XOX Chart
Well.........I'll be durned...........dey say $26 USD price objective........
Dis jives wit ma projection o' $27 peak fo' Silver!!!
Gold/Silver Ratio
Gold/Silver Ratio
* Silver shoulda start movin's North
.............dat is downwards inna da ratio
US Dollar:
- decoupled from Gold
Oil:
- onna up trend; inverse o' da USD$
* Oil takes off..........gonna drive Gold
Oil Bullish Indicator:
Natural Gas
- Rockets from da bottom
* Lookit da Nat Gas rocket.........missed dat!!??
Ratio Oil/Natural Gas
- now at historical high
Coal ETF
- moves wit oil
* Will move wit oil moves.....................
Da Rock likes coal betta.................dan Nat Gas
Doctor Copper:
- Da Dr. leads anna predicts da economy usually
* Copper made a clear move to $3 anna now consolidatin'
Steel Stocks vs NYSE
- gives leadin' indicator o' economy
* Da Rock sees steel ta be makin' big moves soon.......
* Infrastructure $$$ finally makin' itself felt.......
Baltic Dry - Shippin' Rates
- indicator o' world trade
Why Rates goin' down:
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2009/09/18/too-many-ships-destined-for-the-seas.aspx
* Don't worry 'bout rates.........too many ships comin' on line...
Volatility Index
- Consolidatin' good
* ViX lowers........issa good fo' S&P
* Rise dis week fo' Comex expiry & end o' month & Halloween
* Buy when volatility rises........
=========================================================
C. Miners; Juniors; Nano-caps
Century Mining - da Rock's Fav: - Hi-grade Gold mine inna Canuckland
* Dis issa a $5 stock sittin's @ 18 cents................
* Breakout comin's fo' CMM.........just inna time fo' Xmas!
Cliffs Natural Resources
- Iron Ore anna Coal miner
* CLF issa leadin' indicator..........wit Asian sales.................
* Dis issa safe stock..........
HL - Hecla Mining
- Undervalued Silver Miner
* Secret.......Green's got Gold
SLW - Silver Wheaton
- Silver royalties only; no minin'
* SLW's got 21 employees only.............
* All costs fixed...............so highly leveraged ta silver price
New Gold
- Growin’ wit acquisitions
* Dis is a 10 bagger from 'ere..................might take 2 years..........
Great Basin Gold
* 13 million ozs comin' on line...........
* Dis guy issa unknowns.......gonna be mid tier producer inna 2010 wit 350K oz AU
* Note: Leverage dis wit GBG Warrants.......... good fo' 1 year
* Dis is a Rock discovery.....much undervalued anna gonna jump ta mid-tier producer inna 2010
* Watch fo' da announcement.......opening Esmeralda mine, too!!!
Ring O' Fire – KWG
- Chromite, Diamonds, anna VMS Copper/Zinc/Lead/Silver fo' literally a few pennies
* Big Daddy Chromite........also gots Gold.....anna PGE group metals...........Kin you say Rhodium............anna Platinum
* Debut distribution o' shares comin's
* Railroad comin'
* TSX comin'
* Dis stock issa long term hold fo' $$$
UC Resources
* Ring o Fire
* drillin' big analmoly
* Watch fo' Surprise hit ..........sumting big!
Dats a wrap fo' Now!
HardRock