THE
PAINTED PIG
STOCKALERT
JUNE11, 2008
______________________________
THE PIGS "OINK" OF THE DAY
Someone sent me a postcard picture of the earth.
On the back it said, "Wish you were here."
-- Steven Wright
the pig speaks
(spread some oinkment on that infection)
one of the most difficult partsof doing these daily updates, is selecting the right stocks to post.there are many good ones, and many not so good, and even some we thinkare good and the market out thinks us. so much for knowing it all. theirony of this is not wasted on the pig. the pig uses 14 steps ofanalysis before he publishes his picks, when they all co-incide withinthe appropriate ranges acceptable to the pig, they go on the paintedpig blog. over the first few months of this enterprize, the pig hasmanaged to pick a few weiners (funny stuff eh ?) and one or two nonweiners. the pig has tried to keep his picks within the sectors thatare liquid, and have a reasonable audience (coal, shale gas, potash-are a few that come to mind). coal and shale gas, in particular arevery hot right now (other than the last few days trading in the quebecplay's). with this in mind, the pig thinks he has found a real paintedpig pick, a veritable pork chop of a selection. the pig hopes you likeit. its got it all.
VGN-V...............GREENCASTLE RESOURCES..............+.08....TO .325 ON 2.26 MILLION SHARES
THE PIG FIGURES HE'S FOUND A WAY TO HAVEEXPOSURE TO THE SASKATCHEWAN COAL EXPLORATION BONANZA (LIKE GXS-V .80CENTS TO $9 IN 5 WEEKS) AND THE QUEBEC SHALE GAS PLAY (INVOLVED WITHAND NEXT ALTAI'S SITUATION) . ALL FOR A MEASLY .32 CENTS. WITH A JUNIORCOMPANY THATS HAS REVENUE AND A LOW FLOAT, GREAT MANAGEMENT, AND A VERYNICE PORTFOLIO OF OTHER PROPERTIES TOO NUMEROUS TO MENTION. THE PIGSAYS ITS THE DEAL OF THE CENTURY, WELL OKAY MAYBE NOT BUT HE'SASTOUNDED THIS THING IS SO CHEAP. BELOW IS SOME DUE DILIGENCE THE PIGHAS DONE (AKA STOLEN FROM SOMEONE ELSE). THE PIG LIKES THIS A TON, ANDTHATS NO EXAGERRATION. CHECK IT OUT, ITS GOT MORE UPSIDE THAN A CAMERAANGLE UNDERNEATH OPRAH, AND MAY HAVE SOME SERIOUS LEGS.
Greencastle Resources(VGN)
Shares Outstanding:42,267,005
June 10 Closing Price: 0.325
Near-Term Target Price: 0.60
First Recommended At: 0.15
On a market day like today,it's comforting to own a stock like Greencastle Resources. The"green" in Greencastle is symbolic of the fact this little company isactually profitable and making money every single day, as its wells inSaskatchewan continue to produce at a fervent rate. This is a real company makingreal money, but there's more to the story here - much more - as investors arenow just starting to appreciate. After a strong move followed by a minorpullback last week, Greencastle resumed its advance today and appears to havestarted a new "upleg". Clearly, it is no longer a question of"if" but "when" this stock, with very strong underpinnings,reaches new all-time highs. Accordingly, we have revised our target price to.60 near-term with the distinct possibility of even higher prices given overallmarket conditions and company news and developments.
This update focusses on whatwe believe will be record second quarter earnings for Greencastle, andspeculation that it is about to get involved in the Quebec gas play. Pleasere-read our previous report for additional information on Greencastle.
1. Record EarningsAhead
On May 29, Greencastlereported a net first quarter profit of $434,539, a whopping 51% increaseover the first quarter of 2007. The company retains a sliding scale royalty onall oil production and a 15% royalty on all gas production from the Primate andNorth Primate properties in west central Saskatchewan. Higher heavy oil pricesand increased production contributed to total royalty revenue of $582,457 inthe first quarter of this year, an increase of 24% overthe fourth quarter of 2007. Starting to get the picture here? The secondquarter has been exceptionally strong for heavy oil prices, and new wellscontinue to come on stream at the Primate properties (as Greencastle itselfindicated in its May 29 release). Bottom line: The second quarter of '08 isshaping up to be the best ever for Greencastle, and our prediction is forroyalty revenue to slightly exceed the previous record of $636,418 (Q3,2006).
Investors always enjoyearnings surprises, and Greencastle in our opinion is about to deliver one.We're also excited about the potential earnings impact from its investments - Greencastleparticipated in private placements with Vast Exploration (VST) and AltaiResources (ATI), at much lower prices than what those two companies arecurrently trading at. Potential capital gains from these investments arebelieved to be in the hundreds of thousands of dollars. How does a Greencastlequarter with earnings of $1 million or 2.5 cents per share sound? That'sentirely possible.
Greencastle is awash in cashand its working capital, which was over $4 million as of March 31st, shouldincrease to approximately $5 million as of June 30th. With plenty of cash inthe bank, Greencastle isaggressively pursuing new opportunities as it recently indicated.
2. Coal and QuebecShale and Gas Play
In our May 31 report, we toldyou that Greencastle had applied for coal exploration permits in Saskatchewan.The company is eagerly awaiting confirmation of those permits from theSaskatchewan Ministry of Energy and Resources.
What we don't know for sure,but what we are now speculating on (for good reason) is that Greencastle isalso about to get involved in the Quebec gas play in the St. Lawrence lowlands.Rumors are now circulating with regard to this, which perhaps explains today'srenewed burst of activity in the stock. Greencastle CEO Tony Roodenburg seemsless interested in gold these days and much more interested in coal and oil andgas. His connections with Altai Resources, and the tone of his May 29 news release, leads us tobelieve he will follow Altai and others into the exciting Quebec gas play.
The Facts SpeakFor Themselves
- Record-setting 2nd quarterearnings likely after strong Q-1 profit;
- Company pulling inapproximately $200K per month in oil and gas royalty revenue;
- Profitable investments inoil and gas companies;
- Aggressively pursuing newexploration and investment opportunities;
- Significant insider buyingby company CEO;
- Very strong cash positionand no need for stock dilution (financing);
- Market cap still only $14million!
- Gold properties in Nevada(Battle Mountain Trend) and West Africa;
- Uranium property inWyoming;
- Very bullish stocktechnicals
EXS-V....EXPLOR RES.......-.18TO .40 ON 1,322,625 SHARES
RESULTSTODAY ON TWO HOLES WERE GREAT, BUT THE PIGS FELLOW PIGGIES DID NOTAGREE (WHO ARE WE TO ARGUE ?) THE PIG HAS SEEN A CROP CIRCLE THAT TOLDHIM TO "HOLD FOR ASSAYS". THE PIG WILL DO SO, RESERVE JUDGMENT UNTILASSAYS COME OUT, ANYDAY APPARENTLY.
PON-V......POTASH NORTH RES.......+.39TO $3.78 ON 11,852,893 SHARES (yes that's ALMOST 12 million shares)NOTHING ELSE NEED BE SAID.........THE PIG USES THE TERM "JUGGERNAUT" ONTHIS BABY.......BUT THE PIG FEELS THIS PIG STILL STILL HAS SOMEUPSIDE PEOPLE. TRADE CAREFULLY, THIS PORKER IS GREASED PIG MATERIAL,THE ONE THAT GOT AWAY.
THE PIGS TRADING TIP OF THE WEEK.....
"BUY LOW-SELL HIGH"...........(NOT TO BE CONFUSED WITH "BUY BLOW AND BE HIGH")
ACTUALLY HERE ARE SOME REAL TIPS THAT MAY PROVEHELPFUL.................................(They are US based but whats aPig to do ?)
| 1.) | If the lead stochastic crosses over the 20 band consider this a possible buy signal, and if it crosses below 80, then it would be a sell signal. |
| 2.) | Use several charts in different time periods for each stock you are trading. 60, 13, 8, 3, and 1 minute charts will enable you to see the bigger picture. If the 60, 13, and 8 minute charts are in an uptrend, look at the 3 / 1 minute charts for an entry into the trend, such as when the lead stochastic moves up from the 20 band. Don't fight the trend of the longer time frames, but if your trade is going against the major trend, be aware that you won't want to stay in it for too long. |
| 3.) | If you are new to stock trading, start with low lots of shares such as 100, and avoid jumping in with orders for 1000+. A trade with 100 shares going against you is psychologically easier to take than one with 1000. |
| 4.) | Be wary of making trades during a consolidation, which can be indicated by flat or nearly flat 5 and 15 period moving averages. It is best to make trades when the stock is in a trend identified by higher highers and higher lows for an uptrend, or lower highs and lower lows for a downtrend. A strong trend should show a wide channel between the 5 and 15 period moving averages.
If the price is consolidated into a tight range for the past several bars, be aware that a breakout may be triggered when the price moves above or below the highest/lowest values. You can either enter a trade at the breakout price as it happens, or wait for the first wave to complete and the price to pull back close to the original breakout price. |
| 5.) | Know where your exit points in the trade will be, including your stop loss value. It is important to take losses and not let a losing trade run away while you hope it will turn in your favour later on.. it might not. |
| 6.) | If trading NASDAQ stocks, be aware of what the futures are doing. The current March contract symbol for the Nasdaq Emini 100 futures is NQH08 / NQH8 depending on your broker. Stocks usually move with the futures. It is generally a bad idea to short a stock if the futures are in a strong uptrend, and vice versa for going long. |
| 7.) | If the futures are in an uptrend, but your stock is moving down this could signal a possible explosive move down when the futures start to go back down again. The same applies in reverse for moves up. |
| 8.) | Look at the previous days trading range by subtracting the high of the day from the low of the day. You may want to add this into a stock scanning program so you can find stocks which had a range of $1+ for example. Stocks with large ranges will give more opportunities for larger moves for you to capture compared to stocks which only fluctuate by a few cents each day. |
| 9.) | Watch out for stocks that have a significant gap at the open, either up or down. Stocks that have gapped are likely to have good volume and swings in price, presenting good trading opportunities. A gap is defined by the opening of the bar being greater or less than the close of the previous bar. If a stock closed at $85 yesterday and opened at $88 today, then it has gapped up by $3. |
| 10.) | The Asian and European markets can be used as a possible guide to get an idea of which direction the US market is likely to go in. For example, if the Nikkei is down 3%, the DAX is down 2.3% then there is a strong possibility the US Futures and stocks will end up down overall. The US futures will have been trading down in their overnight session with Asia/Europe aswell, so there could be an immediate rally at the 9am open before moving down further. |
THE PIGS BAKING TIP OF THEWEEK............
- Do not overmix and do not overbake.
- Carefully read the recipe before proceeding. Use the specified ingredients, and pre-measure them.
- Always use metal measuring cups for dry ingredients and a glass measuring cup for liquid ingredients
- Take your time to properly preheat the oven, and practice safety.
- Measure flour according to the recipe.
- Use an oven thermometer, readily available in grocery stores. Ovens can vary by 50 degrees.
- Properly store ingredients and use the highest quality and freshest ones possible.
- Use metal nonstick baking pans, not thin disposable aluminum ones. Glass pyrex pans are preferable for pie baking.
- For cake and loaf recipes that require unmolding, place the pan on a wire cake rack and let it stand for 10 minutes. Then unmold.
- Before baking, always wash your hands and carefully wash any fruits and vegetables used in the recipe.
THE PIGS TASTELESS JOKEOF THE day..(DON'T READ IT IF YOUR GONNA BEOFFENDED)
FOR THE EMAIL CLIENTS ONLY.....