Today CC included two very valuable info:
  • 5000$ worth of Pg by litre of plasma
  • Starting in 2017!
That's one year earlier than I anticipated! On that first year, there's a potential for 400 kl (Laval + Winnipeg) x 5000$/l = 2G$ but let's cut it in half to buffer us from delays and sales rampup. That's still 1G$! At 20% net margins it's worth ~ 35¢ of EPS. We're far from the "let's forecast 25M$ of sales for next two years" that this BB was beting on  yesterday! :-)

But the two key years are 2018 and 2020.

In 2018, PPPS will be able of 6000$/l x 1 Ml of plasma fract capacity = 6G$ in sales. At 20% net margins and a PE of 20 it's worth 40$ a share. Twice what I expected 10 days ago.

In 2020, if plasma fract capacity is still at 1 ML (I will bet on more)  We will reach ~10000$/l with C1-INH and the other orphan proteins kickin in. That's 10G$ in sales. At 20% net margins and a PE of 20 it's worth 80$ a share. (Yeah I expect 15% share buy back to bring at about 500M shares by then.)

Note that I use 20% net margins and a PE of 20 consistently across my valuation. Good pharmas in the range we'll be in normaly have net margins between 15% and 25% and PE between 15 and 25.
If you multiply the two you get a Market valuation anywhere between 2.25 and 6.25 times the sales. I shoot right in the middle at 20% and 20: a multiple of 4 x the sales.

If you use the range it will give a SP anywhere between 22$ and 62$ in 2018, and between 45$ and 125$ in 2020.

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Other noteworthy details from the CC include:

A new orphan PPPS protein + deal to be announced before year end. Very curious about the "deal" part of that one. :-)

A new 4050 orphan indication also to be announced before year end.

I was stunned to learn that PLI cash position was still at 42.5M$, down only 7.5M$ from last quarter 50M$. And that we still have 1 year worth of cash-fuel in front of us. Because finance-wise, it's really all that counts at this point, no ? I was also pleased to learn about the 25M$ worth of warrants due to be exercised next year. And did I dream or I really heard that the orphan PPPS deal before year end would come with some small upfront too ?

All in all, I'm a super duper happy camper - shareholder. :-)
FD