tesla needs 21k tons of graphite per annumHow much battery-grade graphite will Tesla need?
Let's return now to Tesla and its proposed gigafactory. We know that the 500,000 EVs that Tesla has planned for 2020 will require a total of 35 GWh of energy storage. We now need to determine how much graphite will be contained in those batteries.
The Department of Energy estimates that graphite constitutes approximately 16% weight of a typical lithium-ion battery. The Panasonic spec sheet for its 18650 batteries indicates that each cell weighs 45 g, which means that the 7,104 cells in the 85 kWh battery pack for the 2013 Tesla Model S weigh approximately 320 kg. We can therefore estimate that these batteries use approximately 0.62 kg of graphite/kWh storage capacity - over 54 kg of graphite per 85kWh vehicle. Note that the battery pack for a Tesla Model S is approximately four times the capacity of a "standard" battery EV.
This translates into approximately 21,600 t of graphite required for the 500,000 batteries [each with 70 kWh capacity] needed in 2020. However, we need to account for the relatively low [30%] yield of battery-grade graphite, using current processing methods. This means that some 72,050 t of graphite feedstock would actually be required for these batteries at those yields.
Using today's prices for synthetic [~$20,000/t] and coated spheroidal natural graphite [~$10,000/t], all other things being equal, a switch from all-synthetic to all-natural-graphite anodes for those 500,000 EVs/year would save $216M in material costs, which translates to over $6/kWh, or over $430 per vehicle. Not a bad start.
On top of the batteries for its EVs, Tesla will need a further 9,250 t of graphite for the additional 15 GWh/year of non-EV capacity at the gigafactory, which in turn, would require 30,900 t of graphite feedstocks for the production of battery-grade materials, at current yield levels.
This is a total of just under 30,900 t of graphite in the batteries, requiring 102,900 t of feedstocks using current processing methods and yields. This is over 125% of the global natural flake graphite market, currently at 80-85,000 t/year!
Who can supply this battery-grade graphite?
Clearly, there is a potential significant imbalance between current levels of supply and the projected future demand for graphite, if the Tesla gigafactory comes on-stream.
Technology Metals Research [TMR] tracks graphite projects under development via the TMR Advanced Graphite Projects Index . The minimum requirement for a project's inclusion on the Index is for it to have an NI 43-101- or JORC Code-compliant mineral resource estimate. At present, there are 23 such mineral resources on the Index associated with 20 graphite projects being developed by 16 different companies in 8 countries. Those projects are: