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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Advanced Explorations Inc. ADEXF

"Advanced Explorations Inc is a development stage company. It is engaged in the acquisition, exploration and development of properties within the resource sector."

GREY:ADEXF - Post Discussion

Advanced Explorations Inc. > Iron Ore upside potential.....
View:
Post by MurrayMac on Feb 03, 2012 7:43pm

Iron Ore upside potential.....

Is it possible for an junior's iron ore stock to run from
.40/share to $7.00 in just over a year......four years from full production?

 

Is it possible for an junior's iron ore stock to run from
.40/share to $14.00 in just over 2 years......and still three years from full production?

 

I "guarantee" it has happened!

 

All hope was lost just before this great run, when it fell from $6.00 to this
.40 level....over a one year period.

 

I am speaking of a Canadian junior, that worked diligently in 2009 and 2010, towards a start up iron ore mining operation, that came into initial production in 2011. But here is the interesting part, that first year output target was only expected to be 1 million tons/annum. [64% Fe]. Now, they did fall a little short of their target at 0.75 million tons, but they are now working hard to hit their second year target of 2 million tons/annum for 2012, and 3 or 4 million tons in 2013.  Their "peak" production target is 6 million tons/annum in 2015.

 

The iron product they produce is iron fines and lump. Lump commands a slight premium to concentrate, but fines garners a little less than concentrate. And their production breakdown is 25% lump to 75% fines......all with a selling iron content of about 64%. 

 

Now, this is a Direct Shipping Ore [DSO] mining operation, but they do have to perform a [wet] washing process to raise the 'in-ground' iron content from 56% - 58% to the selling product of 62% - 64% iron content. Usually, DSO mining operations have a very low OPEX of somewhere around $20 - $30 ton. But in this particular case they chose to sub out their mining operation to reduce their CAPEX.....of which they were quite successful.....but coupled with the wet processing facility, they were only able to achieve a $50/ton OPEX, having originally targeting $45/ton. Transportation costs are obviously a large percentage of this figure, for they are 500 kms from a shipping port.

 

This is very much a success story, for it is absolutely amazing that a
.40/share junior with an initial production rate of only 1 million tons/yr, $50/ton operating costs, average shipping grade of 63% Fe.....could garner a peak Market Cap of $800 million in such a short order. 

 

And did I mention, that this is not a 12 month/year operation......but eight months only??

 

And did I mention, that they only have a compliant resource of only 39.5 million tons, and 115 million tons of historical ore??

 

I speak of Labrador Iron Mines [LIM.T]

Comment by speedkills on Feb 03, 2012 11:52pm
 Ya no suspense there everybody knew you were talking about LIM right away.  To compare AXI with LIM is ridiculous.
Comment by Shlinker_ on Feb 04, 2012 12:02am
Actually speedkills, it isnt ridiculous at all. LIM and AXI are both in the iron ore sector. You can comparecompanies to one another all you want. Its not like performing an analysis of variance or two-sided t test dumbass.
Comment by MurrayMac on Feb 04, 2012 9:49am
"Ya no suspense there everybody knew you were talking about LIM right away."   It's hard to get anything past you guys! :)     "To compare AXI with LIM is ridiculous."   I couldn't agree more! Even though I didn't make any comparisons to AXI, I left all thought process up to the readers. But since you brought it up.....let's take a closer ...more  
Comment by speedkills on Feb 04, 2012 10:36am
Thoughtfully put together ! but all I have to say to that is a bird in the hand is better then two in the bush. p.s if you want more upside then LIM buy NML this way you get the dso near production plus a very large taconite and additional dso targets.
Comment by speedkills on Feb 04, 2012 10:43am
shlinker write us up a detailed comaprison of axi with cliffs and the timeline for axi to get to where cliffs is ... should be easy since they are both in the iron sector dumbass. 
Comment by zedman4 on Feb 04, 2012 10:43am
Murray I'm looking forward to your piece on the power plant, you may want to look at the hydro dams that both Yellowknife Giant Gold Mines and Lynn Lake Nickle Mines built and used yo operate their mine complexes. Both where sold to each of their idividual towns when it came to shut down each mine shut down. Just a suggestion.
Comment by rpdeluca on Feb 04, 2012 12:34pm
I like NML but have wondered why it's lagged behind...in other words, it is very undervalued at these levels.  I'm wondering if the market is concerned about their bigger project with Tata where the CAPEX will be quite significant...building a slurry line is not easy...not saying that it cannot be done but maybe their is concern about this...
Comment by 4nolan on Feb 04, 2012 2:20pm
Hi rpdeluca,   I have been in NML as long as you have been in AXI so I'll give you my 2 cents ( just my opinion).  I agree that the large projects in the Schefferville area like Labmeg, kemag and lac Otlynuk  ( Adrianna ) get about as low a valuation as one can get for their size, but I use that to my advantage.  I bought a lot more NML around 1.10 -1.25 ish   ...more  
Comment by 4nolan on Feb 04, 2012 2:25pm
 Actually stockhouse shows 76 % ytd ... looks like it is hitting a resistence point might pull back a bit here, but looking strong anyways. Good Luck p.s I have no doubt that axi will eventually turn also ... everything in due time good luck
Comment by MurrayMac on Feb 04, 2012 5:14pm
I'll continue my thoughts on this subject by first correcting some grammar in my previous post...... :)   "Actually speedkills, I would like to continue my thoughts of all the positives aspects and developments of this great project later this weekend when I have more time.......you have inspired me to refresh the true excitement of this stock potential. I will be talking about ...more  
Comment by MurrayMac on Feb 04, 2012 5:53pm
By the way, here is a link to the 4 year chart reflecting LIM's great fall, and eventually it's even greater run before entering into iron ore production.....https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Stock&symb=CA%3ALIM&time=11&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=2%2F4%2F2012&freq=2&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none ...more  
Comment by speedkills on Feb 04, 2012 6:35pm
  Hey Mac, that chart doesn't really explain too much.  First a lot of names fell hard and bounced back hard over the last four years due to the credit crisis.  There are a lot of stocks with that same chart pattern.  I will give you that stocks run up during exploration settle out during developement and pop going into production again ( mining cycle) but I don't see ...more  
Comment by rpdeluca on Feb 05, 2012 10:14am
Some great perspective Nolan...I wish I would have picked some up in the $ range when I had a chance...you are very correct in that the market has not factored many things into NML...Tata is another example of a company that wants to control their own iron ore supply for many years to come...   Cheers  
Comment by MurrayMac on Feb 06, 2012 6:01pm
1 Million vs 5 Million tons….     Math is a strong suit of mine……and I will take a 5 million tonnes/annum iron ore operation over a 1 million tonnes/annum any day of the year, when all major components are equal!!     1st - if LIM is selling their 65% iron ore at say $140/tonne, then AXI or any other producer would be also be selling their 67% iron ore at the same price or ...more  
Comment by MurrayMac on Feb 06, 2012 6:02pm
1 Million vs 5 Million tons….     Math is a strong suit of mine……and I will take a 5 million tonnes/annum iron ore operation over a 1 million tonnes/annum any day of the year, when all major components are equal!!     1st - if LIM is selling their 65% iron ore at say $140/tonne, then AXI or any other producer would be also be selling their 67% iron ore at the same price or ...more  
Comment by MurrayMac on Feb 06, 2012 9:31pm
"but the argument was sealed for me by the amount of times  ' has or have " was used with LIM and "if and might " was used with AXI."   Thanks to-buy-or-not! :) But you raise a great point here. "Have's" such as LIM [a current producer], and "If's" such as AXI [soon to be producing]......or at least that is the goal. :) & ...more  
Comment by rpdeluca on Feb 07, 2012 9:28am
hmmm...does it start with an R and end in M with the middle letter being I...I remember exiting that stock at $70...yikes!
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