As you may already know, back in December 7, 2022 the then President of Peru Pedro Castillo
was removed by Congress after his failed (and silly) attempt to close Congress and seize full power. Vice President Dina Boluarte was sworn in as the new President, who according to the Constitution should govern until July 2026. Shortly after though it became evident that she didn't have the required popular support to complete her period without huge social unrest. Conversations started with Congress to bring forward elections so that a new President and new Congress are sworn in July 2024, 2 years before the normal date. Despite said agreement some groups of people incited by leftist leaders started violent protests demanding Boluarte's resignation, which according to the constitution would trigger an immediate call for general elections. Policemen were clearly not prepared for that level of violence, fell for the provocation and responded violence with more violence, which to the date has resulted in more than 50 deaths, and still counting.
Small protests that started as a temper tantrum caused by Castillo's removal grew rapidly in size as the deaths piled up and, although still small in number compared to other marches in PEru's history, it's evident looking at the polls that most peruvians want Boluarte's dimission. Will she resign? She has rejected that possibility every time she has been asked about it, and there's certainly a number of reasons against her resignation, in particular in a situation where chaos still reigns in many regions of the country. However, there seems to be something else at play here, some kind of "agenda" Mrs. Boluarte brought with her.
And lithium (and uranium) is apparently part of that agenda. The connection with Macusani Yellowcake probably came through Boluarte's son, David Gomez Boluarte, who back in 2018 talked with Macusani Yellowcake's manager Ulises Solis about Falchani's discovery and
posted an article about it on "Peru 21" newspaper. Days after being sworn in as President, Dina Boluarte
met with the US ambassador In Peru Lisa Kenna, and
a similar reunion was arranged with Peru's Minister of Defense Jorge Chavez Cresta, on January 23. Almost immediately after this meeting (on January 24) and in the context of increasing social unrest in Puno (and Macusani specifically), Minister Chavez
sent soldiers to Puno, and on January 25 the Minister of Economy announced
the creation of an executive group inside his ministry to promote the lithum industry in Puno. That same day
a carefully written article was posted on Lampadia (a pro-business NGO operating in Peru) talking about the uranium opportunity in Puno and the urgency in ellaborating the required regulation. I can't help wondering, was the Minister of Economy talking only about lithium or rather about uranium?
All this "coincidences" have been pointed out by opponents of $LI projects, like
"Red Muqui", and peruvians on social networks are starting
to post about it; to see it just
type "Puno litio" on Tweeter search box. Earlier today even some protesters
showed up at the US ambassy in Peru.
Assuming these are not coincidences and $LI projects are in fact receiving strong support from the President herself, would that be enough to speed up their development, specially in the case of uranium? Well, for those who held $PLU in the years before the merger with $LI, and as has been posted
before, it's clear that none of the governments from 2017 to 2021 have showed any urgency in ellaborating the regulation required for uranium and even some suggested that said regulation was also required for Falchani. My perception is that despite the will of the higher authorities (
Pedro Castillo included) over these governments, there has always been some opposition inside Minem and, perhaps more important, inside IPEN (Peruvian Institute of Nuclear Energy).
So, what is different with Dina Boluarte? I believe the difference this time is in the political groups that support her government. Unlike the previous Presidents who were supported by center and left wing groups, Dina has found support from the most right wing political forces in Congress and society. And the way she has allowed (or should I say ordered) the violent repression of protests by the police and the Army itself only reinforces that perception.
Now, to speed up the ellaboration of the uranium regulations, Dina Boluarte would need to make some changes inside Minem and even inside Ipen if that's what it takes, confronting those who are making up delays to postpone the uranium exploitation forever. With the required laws passed by Congress, she should be able to make some big announcements in the short term, probably this year.
But, as you may have already noted from reading the first paragraphs of this post, time is running against Boluarte, and it may not be enough. When sworn in as new President, Boluarte expressed her will to stay until 2026, but given the pressures she had to concede that her term be cut to 2024. In late February Congress will vote to bring forward the elections to that year, and the rumour is that they will reject it. A lot of congressmen are finding excuses to avoid the brought forward general elections, which would cut their term too. Would that mean that Dina Boluarte stays until 2026? It will depend on how strong (and massive) is the response on the streets, demanding Boluarte's resignation to force the call for immeadiate elections (this year). My own forecast is that, after some comings and goings in Congress, the elections will be brought forward to 2024, so Dina Boluarte stays until July 2024, hopefully with a much lower "mortality rate" than what we have seen in the first month of her tenure.