RE:goldguy and art35 goodday
When it comes to trying to forecast or project the POG, it is important to keep in mind that the future is unknown.
Fundamental and technical analysis are just tools that give us a sense of probabilities, but never certainty about future market behavior.
A trader or investor has to make an educated guess when they buy or sell a stock.
This means that we will often be wrong in our decision making.
Stocks that appear to offer great value may continue to sell off after we buy them.
Stocks that seem to be extremely overvalued can continue to rally.
Markets can remain irrational longer than we can remain solvent.
Money management and risk control are essential for anyone who does any serious trading or investing.
So, regarding the POG, I think there is strong evidence that gold is forming a major bottom that will lead to a multi-month and maybe a multi-year advance.
I expect only minor price weakness from here.
However all markets are highly unpredictable, particularly in the short term, and I may be wrong in my assessment.
If inflation progresses in the months ahead, this should make gold a winner.
If deflation sets in, then gold may sell-off such as it did in 2008.
Regarding ANV, the point that I was trying to make is that it is hard to know where the SP will bottom if gold trends lower from here.
The company will be hurt more than some others, because of the ore quality and the debt that needs to be serviced.
I think it is OK to have a small core position based on trying to bottom fish what looks like a good value play, longer term.
However, I think that there will be plenty of opportunities to make money in the shares for those who wait till gold proves itself by surpassing 1350.
If ANV starts providing good leverage to gold at that point, it is not too late to build large positions.
We want to own a stock during its low risk dynamic performance related to improving company fundamentals, rather than make big commitments when the company is struggling, IMO.
goldguy