How APH gets to $30 - conservative estimateWhere is the APH share price going? Here is how I got to my conservative estimate of where it will be after phase IV is up and running:
- 36,290,000 - Population of Canada
- 20% - percent of Canadians that will use
- 7,258,000 - Pop. of Canadians that will consume
- 5 - assume grams consumed per month
- 36,290,000 - grams per month
- 438,480,000 - grams per year
- 435,480 - kg per year
- 20% - estimate of APH market share
- 87,096 - APH kg based on mkt share
- $3.25 - profit per gram (all in)
- $283,062,000 - APH annual profit
- 150,000,000 - outstanding shares
- $1.89 - Earnings per share
- 16 - Estimate of P/E ratio (conservative)
- $30.19 - Share Price
I can predict this market no better than anyone else, however, I feel this is a conservative estimate, in my opinion. This could easily be double if you look at P/E ratios of alcohol, tobacco, or pharma companies.
Note also, that total APH capacity will be 100,000 kgs per year and my estimate only has it 87,096 kg.