My thoughts and expectationsI'm with Prof on this one.
As a business person I am always looking at opportunities not from a stock perspective but from the angle of would I want to own this venture.
With WEED we have had amazing stock price jumps...no doubt about it, they have done exceptionally well. So has AURORA.
However, both Aurora and Weed are piss poor business models. Size over quality. Debt driven and diluted businesses are a concern to me because once all the hype is over and the business of RUNNING A BUSINESS begins, these companies will have HUGE mountains to climb. Remember that we are not talking about growth like Amazon or Facebook or any FAANG stock for that matter. Cannabis must be grown and sold and there is considerable competition and barriers to profit exist.
Looking at Aphria we've lagged behind considerably in terms of stock appreciation. That is the beauty of it. While the risks are immense for companies like WEED and AURORA that have high market caps and bloated share structures, APH has already found a way to be profitable. As the buisness grows WEED and AURORA will turn a profit but their sales will have to be substaintial and grow rapidly in order to show any real return on investment. Businesses will be judged on an earnings per share basis. Not just on how bright their future "could" be. There are many examples of this in the business world. Blockbuster is one. Now there are many factors that go into why a business fails or thrives but an important one to consider in our case is the ability to sustain growth in the share price so as to access capital easily and cheaply as the business matures. Aphria is in a very enviable position right now. They are making very astute moves and are padding the books by showing profits routinely. Over time the institutional investors will tire of hype and look for value. Aphria represents value and if you can ingore the daily fluctuations that make you nervous you can see that the long term prognosis for APH is up. I see a triple from these levels in a reasonable amount of time (under 36 months). I think a stock price of $18 is virtually a guarantee in 12 months. So unless you need the cash today or soon...let it ride. Buy on really bad days and rejoice in knowing that you are picking up cheap shares while others are panicing and selling at the worst possible time. Do what smart investors do. Don't follow the crowd.
Good luck to all of you that are not on my ignore list. Keep contributing and we'll all be richer for it in the coming year. Thank you to all the excellent and well thought out posts. Keep ignoring the CAP LOCK idiots and the people trying to stir the pot with nothing really to add. The faster we ignore them the better the board is for all of us who have real money invested and need a place to discuss our thoughts and ideas. I'm looking forward to meeting you all the next Leamington visit. Please inbox me if anything is being organized as I'd like to attend.
Atheena