RE:ALL INVinny57...I too am all in. I bought in again at 10.32...big position.
Now, where are we going is the question right?
I'm not going to make the post again, but if someone has the time take our 250,000 kg of weed....convert it into grams (x 1000) and multiply that by a paltry $3 per gram profit...which will be low...have a look at what that number would look like (HINT-it's a ton of profit)
When you get that profit amount...stop and think about how a company making over 100 milliion in profit will cause the stock price to slide.
Here is another calculation @ $4 profit for just what has been already ordered...
Here are the already guaranteed deals (MOU)
NB-2500 kilos approx 10 million profit
BC-5000 kgs - 20 million
AB-5000 kgs- 20 million
QB-5000 kgs- 20 million
Man- 2700 kgs- 10.8 million
Sask ?
PEI ?
NS ?
Ontario is APHRIA home province...we'll get a large chunk here.
for fun let's say 5000kg - 20 million (I think too low...I expect at least 7500)
...so just on guaranteed orders we have 100+ million in profit.
Even if ALL overseas and South American/Caribbean channels will go bust and be worthless these numbers look good right? How about if we halved it again? 50 million in profit isn't bad right?
Last thing to consider...my calculations are on less than 30,000 kilos of cannabis sold. We will have 20,000 kilos available for sale PER MONTH as of January 2019!! Even if there is a reduction of profit to $1.50 per gram that would be $30 million a month profit.
Don't listen to the bashers. Our stock has not performed well since early 2018...the sector is down large...remember that Canopy was $48.72 at their high. It now trades at $34.40 down about 30%. Aphria is down almost 60% from $24.75. I understand that the space is coming down off the highs of last winter but the APHRIA downturn is overdone. We may even drop lower...you never know...but when the sales start adding up, what then? How much lower do you think we'll go? Do you think the upside has any merit? We are looking at this stock in the doldrums of the summer when most pros are on vacation with their families or mistresses. We are a month away from everyone coming back to work.
Keep your focus on reality. All weed companies are going to make a KILLING in the coming year. There will be much more consolidation. There will be much more investments from bigger companies than Constellation. We are in the beginning of a new marketplace. Prohibition is over in OCTOBER! Let the games begin. Don't wait for the week of large upticks in order to get in. Buy your shares cheaply now and enjoy your profits in the next 3-9 months.
Atheena