Aphria Inc. APHA

RE:RE:The Road Ahead $20 2020 How Guidance May be Achieved

[gottahunch]

Yeah there will bumps along way in the sector particularly as other LP's fail. But more stores opening up will help and the strong will survive. Also, I believe Aphria's yields may be higher than they predicted. I do believe Euro is not properly prices in but once we have EU GMP and solid contracts to ship, that changes the story

CentreIce24 wrote: @Gottahunch
Once again another Great Post and I think your calculation's could be pretty much spot on.
Certainly not out in left field.
Having said that, I think you will agree that there is lots of water to flow under the bridge until we get to Q1 2021 earnings (mid October)
Hopefully Irwin & the Team will keep executing 
As for the CIBC's of the world who have been not buying in as you say, maybe this would be of some help.
I remember Cramer accepting Irwin's invitation to come and tour DD and ECOC once it was completed and fully approved by Health Canada
the last time Irwin was on Mad Money. 
If our earnings are solid again on Jan 14th, sorry not if but WHEN are solid yet again, I think it would be a great move to have that tour take place and shown on Mad Money before the end of January. Share with the CIBC's of the world and our American friends just what a Good Thing APHRIA Does Have Growing.
For our fellow Canadians, we all get additional $6,000 of TFSA room and of course additional RRSP contribution room depending upon individual taxable income as of tomorrow January 1st.
Seeing as the markets have been on a tear and had a fantastic year such as TSX Composite up approx +19.13%, DOW +22.34%, S&P +28.88%, NASDAQ +35.23%, we may just draw some of that money as an alternative to the markets and the cannabis sector is pretty much at all time low's.

Today's price increase was a very pleasant surprise and I'm not going to turn it down nor am I complaining but I was prepared to use my 2020 TFSA contribution to add another 1,000 shares of APHRIA if under $6 cdn on Thursday. Hopefully that won't need to be the case and additional Green days to follow as I'm comfortable with my position in APHRIA with an avg price of approx $8.52cdn. I must admit I did grab a few more shares during yesterday's afternoon SALE to help me avg down to that price.
So there you have it, some of my thoughts and me thinking/talking in my out loud voice

Keep up the good work and very informative posts
I think I can safely speak for most fellow longs both on Stockhouse and the Apria Investment Group that they are Very Much Appreciated.
Personally they have certainly helped me keep my sanity and perspective during all the negative shite (poop) that has happened in the last 20 - 24 months

HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!
Wish you and your family Good Health, Happiness and of course Prosperity in 2020
Best,
CentreIce

gottahunch wrote: As far as I tell, the biggest key is going to be just proving how much we can sell.  A supply contract would go a long way. Rootstock helps to secure EU GMP, AMP helps to import to Germany, CC Pharma to distribute and we have ODI in Poland & Germany sales in play.
 
This is what it COULD look like if everything falls in line to meet guidance. Irwin is no dummy, the worst thing you can do as a CEO is miss guidance. I am trying to get my head around it, and am confident but pls feel free to provide feedback. Though if you are short basher, don't expect a response, you are already on my ignore.
 
For fiscal year 2020, the Company is reaffirming its guidance of:
“Net revenue of approximately $650 million to $700 million, with distribution revenue representing slightly more than half of the total net revenue.  Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $88 million to $95 million.”
 
-We know CC Pharma is 95-100M a Q. Let’s assume for easy math 4q’s at 100M = $400M
-If we take the 650-400= 240 M is the NET Cannabis revenue we need to MEET 2020 guidance.
-Q1 “NET” revenue from cannabis products 30,785,000 M (35,079,000 M was gross less excise taxes 4,294). That leaves $210 M of NET required revenue for next 3 q’s
-Q2, let’s assume we do 40 M NET. Things that might help with this: getting through the capacity from full Aphria One production and not having to sell at a discount to Alefia. TRST offline, picking up market share and our products appear to be selling well in store.
-So 240M-70M Q1&2 =170M which is the amount we need to sell in Q3 & Q4 or 85M for each of these Q’s. However, not only do we have current double capacity, vapes are coming online and sell for higher.
-Q3 ending in Feb will include vape sales (Dec/Jan/Feb). I believe we have had some very large initial vape orders, which could go a long way to helping towards 85 M to meet guidance. There is rumours of other rec 2.0 products surfacing that may help too. Hopefully ECOC online to help with processing for all the rec 2.0 products.
-We know that DD doubles capacity as per News Release (actually slightly more than double – but let’s use double).  DD 140 KG / Aphria One 115 KG. Total 255 KG.
-Q4 ending May 2020, will be our first q will vape plus DD. Given approval of DD Nov 4^th, growing/drying/processing time (probably some ready to ship by end of Feb/early March). This will be the biggest Q yet with the NR coming out in August. Hitting 85M should not be a problem at all with vapes/rec 2.0 products and DD production.
 
There is the potential that Q3 could be lower than I’m thinking and Q4 higher.
 
If we shore up a supply deal with Poland/Germany, sell though with vapes well & other rec 2.0 products, and have our monster Q4 2020, I do not think we’ll have any problems meeting guidance. The key is going to be telling the story in such a way the analysts get it, get onside and upgrade the target price.
 
The CIBC’s of the world who are have not been buying into it, will end up looking like fools.
 
Also, keep in mind ACB is likely to fail, along with other smaller LP’s. We need to pick up the slack and are already doing so for TRST.
 
https://www.reddit.com/r/weedstocks/comments/ei3yml/emdeems_q4_2019_estimates_for_ocs_dried_flower/