RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Not good for the sector going into this weekCannabis prices are NOT fixed. If you do the math on the production numbers in the industry you would see there is substantial overproduction of legal cannabis; which is to say, for Aphria (or another LP) to succeed, other LPs must fail.
People thought (maybe you also?) that the government would somehow automagically shut down the black market, whereas it has already proven it can't do it for cigarettes, or opiods. So basically, long term growth in legal consumption will come from new users who are not interested in talking to the street guy, basically your middle to upper-middle class users that have $$$. These people will also buy this cannabis shampoo, facemask and other high margin items. Your poor college students and traditional users will continue to buy from their stoner friends, i.e. the black market.
<< This growth in middle and upper-middle class users is and will be SLOW. >>
Which means in the short term only supply destruction on the legal side can save your LP. So actually this COVID crunch is just going to help prune this industry faster, because it cuts some investment opportunities out for debt-ridden companies.
I actually thought we sort of agreed on this point, so I'm not sure where the disagreement is.
Cheers
ProfCornelius wrote: RandomCommenter wrote: Basic Market economics, if you want the price to go up then you must increase demand or decrease supply. If, for example, ACB crumbles under it's half a billion debt it will decrease supply... jeez that's easy math.
ProfCornelius wrote: PickleRick wrote: ProfCornelius wrote:
What????? How do you see this as bad news? This is exactly what we want as shareholders of Aphria. So many LPS mismanaged their balance sheet recklessly in the last three years thinking that there was endless amounts of capital to raise out there but now there isn't and they are perilously close to folding so why would you want to bail out the competition??? Let them sink in a true capitalistic fashion with the spoils going to LPs who survive this. The spoils being a huge market share, reporting ridiculous after ridiculously good Qs and a much higher share price. Thumbs up if you want survival of the fittest for all LPs and no bail outs so Aphria and a few others can control the cannabis market. Prof
I agree whole heartedly. A couple weeks ago I even stated this.
Yes you did Rick. Very sage. The more CDN LPs that are in a pickle in the future the better. Prof
@randomcommenter, I would tend to agree with you if cannabis prices responded normally to market forces but they don't and cannot for one very important reason.
You forgot one very crucial variable that WILL NOT ALLOW cannabis prices to respond accordingly to supply variables ...so la ti freakin da, geez, I guess it isn't that easy!!!!
You forget about the biggest supply variable being the
black market. So, yes, if ACB goes down legal prices can be stabilized and possibly go up a little bit but not to the extent they would normally because of the black market leering in the background...
legal prices need to be in a range that competes with and helps to eliminate the black market. What Rick and myself were making an inference to was grabbing MARKET SHARE not prices going up if other LP's go down...btw, I am all for ACB and many others going bankrupt.
Sorry, but you sound like a person with zero business experience. Are you possibly a drama teacher or poet??? :)
Prof