Post by
hevin on Jul 17, 2020 1:34pm
Gentleman's bet on q4 results
Guessing Net revenue of 150 million with a tiny loss of .02 because of alEFIA settlement. Anyone else?
Comment by
RandomCommenter on Jul 17, 2020 1:48pm
Simon will announce executive bonuses and an increase to his annual salary as an integral part of his...Aphria's future.
Comment by
Steve0123 on Jul 17, 2020 2:02pm
Settlement won't affect q4.
Comment by
TheWokeLemming on Jul 17, 2020 2:41pm
Revenues of $175-185 million is my guess Anyone know what % of Canadian sales Aphria had as of last quarter? I believe I read 18% somewhere. Canadian sales for May will give us some clarity. Hopefully it’s above April’s $180 million.
Comment by
ilvmyt5s on Jul 17, 2020 3:08pm
I'll take $+199,999,999 and over. BoB Just got OCS. The sales order was ERP# 2,105,nnn
Comment by
ilvmyt5s on Jul 17, 2020 3:31pm
off the cuff... before the pandemic it was ERP#500,000 end of May it was ERP# 2,000,000 ~ 150,000,000 sales orders Aphria's ON market share is 12%. 150,000,000 x .12=18,000,000 Say ~ $25 per order. 18,000,000 x $25= $450,000,000 In Ontario, Aphria made $450,000,000 in q4 2020 ????
Comment by
Robeyy18 on Jul 17, 2020 3:36pm
wondering what how influential the uptick in vape usage might be as aphria has done well in that market.
Comment by
ilvmyt5s on Jul 17, 2020 3:51pm
off the cuff... before the pandemic it was ERP#500,000 end of May it was ERP# 2,000,000 1,500,000 sales orders Aphria's ON market share is 12%. 1,500,000 x .12=180,000 Say ~ $25 per order. 180,000 x $25=4,500,000 In Ontario, Aphria made $4,500,000 in q4 2020
Comment by
ilvmyt5s on Jul 17, 2020 3:59pm
Say ~ $100 per order. 180,000 x $100=$18,000,000 In Ontario, Aphria made $18,000,000 in q4 2020
Comment by
ilvmyt5s on Jul 17, 2020 4:13pm
Alberta is the largest Cannabis market in Canada. Assuming Aphria's 12% is the same in each province. ~ $40,000,000 from Alberta and Ontario CC pharma is good for $100,000,000 thats $140,000,000 from CCPharma + Alberta + Ontario they gotta do $60,000,000 from the rest to be over $200,000,000 for Q4 2020 It's gonna be close...
Comment by
Robeyy18 on Jul 17, 2020 3:31pm
couldn't find anything on market share. if we assume may stays consistent at 180 million and aphrias market share is indeed 18% that would provide them with revenues of roughly 97 million. throw in another 90 million or so from cc pharma and the higher end of your estimate looks pretty accurate.
Comment by
gottahunch on Jul 17, 2020 5:17pm
Alefia will impact next q results, not this one. I have revenue at 70 M cannabis and in, rec/med/Latam and cc pharma at 101. However, pantry loading during pandemic could cause CC to be even higher, maybe 10 m or so.
Comment by
hevin on Jul 17, 2020 6:15pm
We hope you're true to your name gottahunch!
Comment by
arblines on Jul 17, 2020 6:23pm
I think Aphria's earnings will come in at 170mil for the quarter; 560mil for the year just shy of the 575mil estimate. My guess is Aphria will post a loss for the quarter, but profitable for the year. I hope they will release guidance of 1 billion in revenues for FY2021 with 100mil EBITDA, and hopefully the SP will be in the 9$ to 12$ range again.