Old API Wind-down Ltd - Ordinary Shares ARLZQ

RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Seeking alpha

[kuatolives]

-Whether or not they need more products to sell to justify the cost of the sales force depends on the uptake of Yosprala. We'll know when Q4 guidance is released.

-It's odd you'd question their debt load used to purchase new drugs when in your first statement you seem to claim they need more drugs to justify the sales force. You don't find drugs to sell in the cushions of your couch. They tend to cost money. Would you rather they have no drugs and no debt, and by extension no revenue? We call such an entity a bank account. They don't pay much these days.

-It makes no sense to take on Toprol marketting initially if they can't do as good a job in the first year as AZ. I don't know how many AZ sales reps are pushing Toprol, but if they have 300 and you have 100, why  *wouldn't* you take the free labour?  I wasn't in the room, but this appears an astute move on Adams part. 

-2x anual sales sounds like a deal to me, but I'm not a pharma exec. Seems to be everything after year 2 is gravy. This is my layman's understanding of the deal.

-Without knowing the conditions of the milestone payments, whether they are *potentially* 48M or 480 Billion is irrelevant. Again, we won't know until the numbers are released, and even then, it's doubful they'll break those numbers out for competitive reasons.  Adams has made 3 good deals so far (Taking Tribute shareholders for everything, Zontivity, and Toprol), so it's doubtful he went into that meeting drunk and made stupid milestone payment agreements. Until they release the details of these payments, it's all just speculation.

-If Steven Goldman is right and current Yosprala revenue expectations are extremely conservative.... well.... let's just say that 250-300M in revenue from a drug you pay no roytalies for solves a lot of problems with the business in a hurry, if any exist.

-Not even ARLZ will know what the numbers look like until at least mid November sometime. Everything until then is speculation.

-I expect the next catalyst to be a November press release (hopefully) bragging about how much money they are making in Q4.