Old API Wind-down Ltd - Ordinary Shares ARLZQ

RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Seeking alpha

[Floridas2000]

Let me ask you a question - how do Pharma companies usually work?  Don't the major pharma companies build in the exact same way?  How else do you get bigger if you're not a research company developing your own drugs?

Now lets get a few things clear:

1 - they're being very conservative in their numbers since Adams is a veteran of the business and knows things can go wrong.  
2 - they look to break even next year with their latest addition
3 - 4 years out Aralez won't even exist.  They will be bought out
4 - "payback on net sales alone of at least 4 years" does not make it a Valeant.  That's a massive hyperbole even if you think their mimicing Valeant model.  Let's look at the Valeant model.  Purchase a ton of drugs and drug companies at a premium (Aralez is not doing that).  Hike up the drug prices to pay for the margins (Aralez is not doing that).  Manipulate the distribution chain to gain even bigger margins (Aralez is not doing that).  Have a rock star CEO and backer to drum up support in the market (Aralez is not doing that).

Adams' conservative estimates sets him up to surprise on the upside.  So take his numbers with a grain of salt.  You're reading the numbers as if they're set in stone but that's not Adams style.  The alternative to him making these purchases is to do nothing which would a) lead to slower growth and b) make it less attractive for takeover.  

Yes it will be a cash cost however the amount they will as CASH is what we don't know.  If you have a mortgage you need to pay it but what matters most is how much money you have available to pay your mortgage.  Do you use most of your income and it's a major expense or 10%?  Unless you're predicting bankuptcy and defaults already because you know they will not have enough cash I'm not sure what your point is.