RE: Numbers and Comparison Exit rates ? Anyone who follows junior oils would certainly understand that exit rate targets are sweeteners to disappointing but historical average production numbers. The company fell well short of their estimated exit rate for 2010 so why should anyone expect different results ? In any case, it's average yearly production numbers for value, not estimates for future production. That's where the premium to current value is estimated. You can't mix the two.
This years' average rate, if they reach their exit rate, will be around 3500 bopd. There's the value. With a market cap of around $500 million divided by 3500 bopd... On a flowing barrel basis about $142k/bbl... much too expensive. That means the share price is too high, production levels too low. Considering they intend to use the $120 million line for 2012 capital expense, an estimated 2012 average rate of 6000 bopd would leave them with $100k per flowing barrel, again much too expensive.
$187 million spent on 35 wells added 438,000 barrels to their totat production, year over year, it cost them $427 per added barrel of oil. You do understand this, don't you brendelly ? Tell you what, you give me $427 and I'll give you one barrel of oil.