Post by
teevee on Jun 30, 2014 10:50pm
one step at a time....
Here is my take:
Step 1. ARN moves forward with vote and is voted down, or the proposal vote is cancelled. What happens? Business as usual until first debenture due.
Step 2. First series of debentures come due. Conversion is $9.00 and debenture holders won't convert. ARN doesn't have cash to redeem debentures but has the right to pay with shares, so ARN proposes conversion at market, but requires shareholder approval in addition to debenture holder approval. Large shareholders (LTS and CPG) vote it down as they would be faced with unacceptable dilution. What happens? It is most likely voluntary bankruptcy, forcing a sale of assets to first pay the bankers and then debenture holders. Under voluntary bankruptcy, ARN chooses the receiver and controls the asset sale process. In this case, the banks get their money, shareholders get zero, and debenture holders might get 50 cents on the dollar.
I hope this helps explain why I believe acceptance of the current proposal is best for both shareholders and debenture holders. If shareholders and debenture holders don't co-operate, I believe they are both screwed. The only fly in the ointment is that CPG and LTS have 38% of the stock and may well vote in their own best interests. THE only faint hope is for a 3rd party to come with a better deal. CPG and LTS don't have to if they want to play the long game. Who elese might come to the table? The other big player at Swan Hills just today stated that if the right offer came along, they would sell, so it won't likely be them.
Comment by
teevee on Jul 01, 2014 12:06am
The reason why shareholder approval would be needed to approve conversion of debenture at or near market price is because it would effectively mean a change in control.
Comment by
rad10 on Jul 02, 2014 12:59pm
+1 Tx serious invest - it is good that this rebuttal comes from multiple sources.