Argonaut Gold Inc ARNGF

Just the facts maam.

[Sclarda2]

Lets take a quick look at the numbers and see if we can make sense of this b.s.


They are forecasting gold production of 225 000 to 250 000 ounces for this year. AISC should be from $1950 to  $2050.  

Capex between Magino and Florida Canyon is aprox.  $100 million.  Magino Capex includes completion of the tailings management facility, assay lab, and other infrastructure and major spare components that were delayed during construction  to conserve cash.  At Florida Canyon Capex includes the third leach pad, and additional processing capacity. 

So it sounds like most of the Capex is a onetime or once every several years expense i dont know why they include it in AISC.  For arguments sake lets say they produce aprox. 240 000 ounce this year at an AISC of aprox. $2000 around the middle of their forecast.  Lets take a guess and say 40% of sustaining capital is a yearly expense that would leave aprox.  $60 million of the $100 million Capex as a one time expense.   On 240 000 ounces of production at $2000 AISC  the $60 million in one time Capex would reduce AISC by aprox.  $250 per ounce. 

If my numbers are anywhere near correct AR this year will actually have AISC of aprox.  $1750 this year.  

If these fools would have come out with a 2024 forecast of 225 000 to 250 000 ounces with an AISC of aprox.  $1750 and then said that they need to do an extra  $60 million this year in one time Capex to finish off parts of Magino that were delayed to conserve cash and streamline and get more production from Florida Canyon we likely would not have had this much of a drop in the shareprice. 
  
Allowing for the hedging at $1860 and curent gold prices of a little over $2000 that would be an      average sale price for gold produced of aprox.   $1950.  With an average $2000 AISC forecast AR will be losing aprox. $50 per ounce produced this year or aprox.  $12 million. Add to that costs such as interest etc that are not in AISC and the loss will likely be closer to $30 to $40 million US.

Next year they should have Magino up to speed and need a lot less money for Capex compared to this year and things should be a lot better. What will need to happen for AR to really take off is to get Magino expanded and up to 250 000 ounces per year production at likely much lower costs. 

For those with a lot of patience the reward should be very good.  Its just to bad that it will not be this year as many of us hoped although if there is any good news in the next months the shareprice should recover from these very depressed levels.

Magino has been a disaster from the beginning coming in at over double the estimated construction costs. And now it will take another year or two to get things hopefully up to speed. Management really dropped the ball in that news release throwing Capex into AISC. They could have explained it a lot better. What other kinds of surprises will they have in the quarterly report i wonder. Doesnt give me a lot of confidence in them.

To be honest i have just about have had enough of gold mining stocks. You can only take so many  beatings before a normal person gets the message.
 
Good luck to all  we are going to need it.

[60PlusWhoCares]

Don't forget Argonaut Gold Closes Previously Announced C$85 Million Bought Deal 

[ARGONAUTGOLD]

The company’s 2024 guidance isn’t disappointing when you interpret it correctly. If you exclude CapEx, the gross profits and revenue are quite substantial. The company has been discussing optimizations that necessitate capital, so the CapEx shouldn’t come as a surprise. The potential for significant growth does come with costs.   As per the company’s Q3’23 Management Discussion and

[Sclarda2]

"The companies 2024 guidance isnt disapointing when you interpret it correctly." Seeing as the shareprice dropped by one third the day that guidance came out it seems the market disagrees with you. Of course i am sure you are right and the whole market is wrong.

[Sclarda2]

The 2024 guidance wasnt disappointing when the Massive Bagholder held shares. Then he sells and all of a sudden the same guidance is very disappointing Seen some two faced lying weasels but this fool is in a league of his own. Hopefully he will leave this board now that he has sold.

[Andersom]

Yes, you are right on that point that Argo talks how the wind blows for him, but still there is some knowledge in what he says! You on the other hand are ignored by most of us, brcsuse it is all nonsense what comes out of your mouth! Then I prefer argonaut! Cheers

[Sclarda2]

"The companies 2024 guidance isnt disappointing when you interpret it correctly." "The companies 2024 guidance isnt disappointing when you interpret it correctly." "The companies 2024 guidance isnt disappointing when you interpret it correctly."