Algoma Steel Group Ord Shs ASTL

Earnings

[summitking]

$430mm in ebitda for the quarter and at least $450mm for next quarter.  

Retiring all long term debt. 

Tomorrow should be an even better day than today.

[Stocker46]

Yes, at this point Algoma appears to be significantly undervalued. TMX shows an EPS of $1.71 (excluding the current quarter). I'm assuming that number reflects the trailing 12 months .. including losses in the 2nd half of 2020. Can't find earnings for 3rd & 4th Q of 2020 so it's hard to come up with a firm number .. but about $5.14 EPS should be a reasonable estimate for the

[Stocker46]

summitking .. Looks like EPS of about $2.57 ... your $2.65 wasn't far off.

[Stocker46]

Looking at Sedar, Algoma is reporting a quarterly EPS of $4.02. .. based on outstanding shares of 71.7 M. With - note 1 below which reads "Retrospectively adjusted to reflect the reverse stock split, described below". The TXS is showing outstanding shares of 112 M. Perhaps others were aware of this but it now looks even better than I thought. Can't believe the SP is down this

[summitking]

I'm curious to see an updated presentation that shows the actual proforma shares outstanding now that this amalgamation is complete.  The company uses 71.7M in this quarter, TSX uses 112M and the company used 152.8M in their last preso proforma.  Which is correct? Company will need to make a decision what to do with the $450M+ after this upcoming quarter, debt will be paid off

[Stocker46]

Read their MD&A and listened to the CC. A question regarding the share count was asked. Still a lttle confusing but (if I'm interpreting correctly) the count will be the 112 M .. when the dust settles. (not positive whether the 10M PIPE shares should be added as well) I assume they'll use 3rd Q cash generated plus some of the cash generated in 4th Q to pay off their secured loans

[Stocker46]

Picked up more shares at $14.37 this AM. Puzzled by recent trading .. Algoma had a good quarter (NE of $288 M) along with good news .. finalized plans for EAF construction & paid off over $400 M in loans. Algoma shares have dropped almost $2 from the close of $16.38 prior to the earnings release. ?? Put a bid in for Stelco as well but it hasn't got quite low enough.

[summitking]

This has me baffled.

[Stocker46]

Baffling for sure. When the TXM site finally gets around to updating their Key Data numbers for Algoma, the current price/earnings ratio of 8.3 (based on yesterday's close) will likely drop to 2 or 3. Stelco has the same problem. After a couple of days with nice gains, they've dropped close to $3. There current 12 month trailing EPS is $12.62 .. dropping their Price/Earnings ratio from 11

[mjh9413]

Analysts concensus seems to be that prices will continue falling but, as I stated with Stelco, even if the prices receded to the mid-2022 futures price the steel companies appear to have good financial prospects, particularly if volumes do not recede say 20% or more from the ever-increasing delivery volumes currently taking place. Also negative is the cost per tonne increase (about $200 per tonne

[Puma1back]

  Note 22 of the financials shows the 72 million or so.  note 29 - discusses the earn out additional shares of 37 million - which it seems is all but certain to be hit.  note 29 also discusses the 10 million pipe shares but I have to agree with you this part is confusing. The pipe agreement was signed in May but it looks like the shares were not issued by Legato until

[Stocker46]

Algoma should immediately initiate a stock buyback program .. can't imagine the share price going much lower going forward.

[Puma1back]

Well, it will be interesting to see the floor - clearly no diamond hands got shares in the ipo 

[Eigen337]

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[Eigen337]

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[Eigen337]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy