ATEThis stock is synonymous with "Buy the rumour, sell the news".
I would argue that this has been displayed on a few occasions, perhaps even with the most recent, albeit minimul run up in the stock price over the last several days, just to sell off the day of the expected announcement.
Similar occurance post Phase ll completion. Which was followed with a not so favourable equity raise.
The moments of excitement surrounding this stock have occured during near term, expected positive developments. Post results it reverts back to "dead status", until the next opportunity to repeat that pattern.
The theory of buy the rumour sell the news is generally common with most stocks, however, in ATE's case, it seems to be the only action, for the moment.
I think there is a general positive consensus about Antibe's fundamental's in terms of the product they are developing. With the enormity of the potential market, there is certainly some real opportunity of significant commercial scale.
The issue is, that there is still a 2-3 year time period before that commercial status is achieved. All of this obviously predicated on a successful completion of Phase lll.
Not all are willing to park their money and simply wait.
There is an option of paying more per share once something is confirmed and risk has been reduced or eliminated.
ATE has stated that they have enough funds to complete Phase lll, however, this is not enough. Sales team, marketing team, distribution. Antibe does not have any of these.
A partner is necessary, not simply just an option.
You have to make the reasonable assumption that they will land a deal for the major markets. I'm not convinved there would be any alternative.
With the China deal, I think management has demonstrated that they have the capacity to put a deal together.
A deal with a major US phrama, would solidify it's position. As far as the stock is concerned, it would have no choice at that point but to respond in a dramatic way as the price will get bid up.
The safety and efficacy of the drug, the necessity for a large partnership, management's ability to execute their plan, I think are sufficiently low enough risks to produce a favourable opportunity for substantial reward.